供給側(ce)定基調,需求(qiu)端定節奏,年內周(zhou)期(qi)和消費板塊(kuai)演繹五波(bo)(bo)交替(ti)行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)情(qing)。在(zai)宏觀(guan)經(jing)濟(ji)穩(wen)增長(chang)、供給側(ce)結構性改革持(chi)續(xu)(xu)推進以及行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)內生(sheng)出清力量(liang)作(zuo)用(yong)下(xia),行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)微觀(guan)層面(mian)繼續(xu)(xu)改善,成為市場活躍(yue)的(de)重要(yao)催化(hua)力量(liang),年內周(zhou)期(qi)和消費板塊(kuai)將演繹五波(bo)(bo)交替(ti)行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)情(qing)。年初(chu)至2月(yue)末,宏觀(guan)數據改善催生(sheng)第(di)一波(bo)(bo)周(zhou)期(qi)股行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)情(qing);在(zai)“經(jing)濟(ji)平穩(wen)增長(chang)+金(jin)融(rong)去杠桿”預期(qi)下(xia),3月(yue)到5月(yue)展(zhan)開了第(di)二波(bo)(bo)消費品(pin)(pin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)情(qing);經(jing)濟(ji)韌性預期(qi)加強(qiang)、金(jin)融(rong)監(jian)管持(chi)續(xu)(xu),疊加后期(qi)政(zheng)策強(qiang)化(hua)環保(bao)限產力度,5月(yue)到9月(yue)前(qian)后第(di)三波(bo)(bo)周(zhou)期(qi)股行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)情(qing)開啟;10月(yue)之后第(di)四波(bo)(bo)消費品(pin)(pin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)情(qing)展(zhan)開,目(mu)前(qian)正處于(yu)消費品(pin)(pin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)情(qing)尾聲、第(di)五波(bo)(bo)周(zhou)期(qi)股行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)情(qing)的(de)啟動階段。
第五(wu)波周期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)股(gu)(gu)行(xing)情的(de)展開主(zhu)要有以下幾(ji)條邏(luo)輯。1)經(jing)濟增(zeng)長動能依(yi)舊(jiu),周期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)品(pin)需求端有支撐(cheng)。10月投資、生產、消費(fei)數據出現季節性(xing)波動,但經(jing)濟內生動能韌性(xing)較強。2)環保(bao)限產政策繼(ji)續(xu)推(tui)進(jin),供(gong)給(gei)側邏(luo)輯繼(ji)續(xu)發力。短期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)來看,相關(guan)周期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)品(pin)行(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)將(jiang)(jiang)進(jin)入環保(bao)強約(yue)束期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi),從而對(dui)周期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)品(pin)價格的(de)相對(dui)強勢局面形成支撐(cheng)。3)受(shou)環保(bao)限產影(ying)響,周期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)行(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)將(jiang)(jiang)呈現為去庫存狀態,但隨著開工旺季的(de)到來,后續(xu)周期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)行(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)補庫進(jin)程(cheng)有望展開,從而成為周期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)股(gu)(gu)行(xing)情的(de)催化因素(su)。4)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)貨(huo)(huo)市(shi)場(chang)顯示市(shi)場(chang)對(dui)于周期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)品(pin)價格的(de)疲軟預(yu)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)趨于改(gai)善(shan),現貨(huo)(huo)價格回升有利(li)于提(ti)(ti)振周期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)行(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)的(de)盈利(li)水平繼(ji)續(xu)改(gai)善(shan)預(yu)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi),而后續(xu)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)貨(huo)(huo)貼(tie)水率收窄將(jiang)(jiang)進(jin)一步提(ti)(ti)升周期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)行(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)盈利(li)水平改(gai)善(shan)的(de)持續(xu)性(xing)預(yu)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)。5)從相關(guan)板(ban)塊近期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)的(de)市(shi)場(chang)表現以及市(shi)場(chang)博弈視角來看,周期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)股(gu)(gu)相對(dui)消費(fei)品(pin)的(de)收益風(feng)險比更高。
預(yu)(yu)期(qi)思(si)維、邊際(ji)(ji)思(si)維、交易(yi)思(si)維下的(de)行(xing)情演繹。從行(xing)情演繹的(de)基本規律來(lai)看,一般分為三個階(jie)段:行(xing)情啟(qi)動階(jie)段是(shi)預(yu)(yu)期(qi)思(si)維占主(zhu)(zhu)導(dao),市(shi)(shi)(shi)場超預(yu)(yu)期(qi)來(lai)源(yuan)于行(xing)情演繹邏(luo)輯兌(dui)現(xian)可能性(xing)的(de)判斷(duan);行(xing)情展開階(jie)段是(shi)邊際(ji)(ji)思(si)維占主(zhu)(zhu)導(dao),市(shi)(shi)(shi)場超預(yu)(yu)期(qi)來(lai)源(yuan)于行(xing)情演繹邏(luo)輯持續性(xing)的(de)判斷(duan);行(xing)情極致階(jie)段是(shi)交易(yi)思(si)維占主(zhu)(zhu)導(dao),市(shi)(shi)(shi)場超預(yu)(yu)期(qi)來(lai)源(yuan)于市(shi)(shi)(shi)場情緒何時降溫或逆轉。相(xiang)(xiang)對而言,目前周期(qi)股行(xing)情的(de)兌(dui)現(xian)信號(hao)相(xiang)(xiang)對明晰(xi)。
擁抱周期股第五波行(xing)(xing)情,戰略看(kan)多(duo)大制(zhi)(zhi)造領(ling)域。全球朱格拉(la)周期開啟、出口、房地產投資、制(zhi)(zhi)造業(ye)投資等(deng)因(yin)素有(you)望為經(jing)濟提供(gong)向上動(dong)能(neng)。需求(qiu)不弱,環保限(xian)產發力疊加企(qi)業(ye)補庫(ku)預期,周期行(xing)(xing)業(ye)的收(shou)益風險比(bi)相對更高,且彈性較好,重(zhong)點推薦(jian)有(you)色(se)、建材、鋼鐵、石化(hua)、煤炭等(deng)行(xing)(xing)業(ye)。此外,看(kan)好在國際競(jing)爭中具有(you)領(ling)先地位,或者具有(you)彎(wan)道(dao)超車(che)可(ke)能(neng)的領(ling)域,尤其是大制(zhi)(zhi)造領(ling)域中的TMT估值切換行(xing)(xing)情,關注通訊、電(dian)子、軍工(gong)、機械、新(xin)能(neng)源等(deng)品種。主題(ti)投資方面,重(zhong)點推薦(jian)高端(duan)裝備、5G、人工(gong)智能(neng)、核能(neng)、軌交、衛星導航、智能(neng)制(zhi)(zhi)造等(deng)板(ban)塊。
中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)證(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)網(wang)(wang)(wang)聲(sheng)明(ming):凡(fan)本(ben)網(wang)(wang)(wang)注明(ming)“來源:中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)證(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)券(quan)報(bao)(bao)·中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)證(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)網(wang)(wang)(wang)”的所(suo)有(you)作(zuo)品(pin),版權均(jun)屬于(yu)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)證(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)券(quan)報(bao)(bao)、中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)證(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)網(wang)(wang)(wang)。中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)證(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)券(quan)報(bao)(bao)·中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)證(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)網(wang)(wang)(wang)與作(zuo)品(pin)作(zuo)者(zhe)聯合聲(sheng)明(ming),任何組織未經(jing)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)證(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)券(quan)報(bao)(bao)、中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)證(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)網(wang)(wang)(wang)以(yi)及(ji)作(zuo)者(zhe)書(shu)面授權不得轉(zhuan)(zhuan)載(zai)(zai)、摘編或利(li)(li)用其(qi)它(ta)(ta)方式使用上述作(zuo)品(pin)。凡(fan)本(ben)網(wang)(wang)(wang)注明(ming)來源非中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)證(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)券(quan)報(bao)(bao)·中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)證(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)網(wang)(wang)(wang)的作(zuo)品(pin),均(jun)轉(zhuan)(zhuan)載(zai)(zai)自其(qi)它(ta)(ta)媒(mei)體,轉(zhuan)(zhuan)載(zai)(zai)目的在于(yu)更好(hao)服務(wu)讀者(zhe)、傳遞信息之需,并(bing)不代表本(ben)網(wang)(wang)(wang)贊(zan)同其(qi)觀(guan)點,本(ben)網(wang)(wang)(wang)亦不對(dui)其(qi)真實性負責,持異議者(zhe)應與原(yuan)出處(chu)單位主張權利(li)(li)。
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Copyright 2001-2018 China Securities Journal. All Rights Reserved