□東吳(wu)證(zheng)券 鄧文淵
探底(di)(di)反彈后滬指周線終(zhong)結(jie)五(wu)連陰,年末資(zi)金面束縛下場外資(zi)金無心入市(shi),大盤(pan)延續低(di)成交、低(di)波(bo)(bo)動(dong)行情。市(shi)場做多力量有限(xian),殺(sha)跌動(dong)能也不足,天(tian)然氣概念走強顯(xian)示(shi)博弈(yi)情緒有所改善,上(shang)證50穩(wen)(wen)健上(shang)行延續強勢,具(ju)備(bei)業績確定性大+防御性強特質的質優股(gu)仍(reng)是大資(zi)金抱(bao)團主線。總體(ti)看盤(pan)面氛圍有好轉(zhuan)傾向,但持續度仍(reng)有待觀察,市(shi)場在(zai)磨底(di)(di)階段(duan)多有震(zhen)蕩反復(fu),操作上(shang)需把控波(bo)(bo)段(duan)節奏感和(he)耐心,穩(wen)(wen)健者應繼續控倉位、忌盲動(dong),擇機低(di)吸(xi)流動(dong)性有保障(zhang)個股(gu)。
重(zhong)(zhong)要會議明(ming)確(que)繼續(xu)(xu)實施積極(ji)的(de)(de)(de)(de)財政政策(ce)+穩健中性(xing)的(de)(de)(de)(de)貨幣政策(ce),強(qiang)調要管住貨幣供給總閘門。而“防(fang)范化(hua)解(jie)重(zhong)(zhong)大(da)(da)風險”位列三大(da)(da)攻堅戰首位,防(fang)范化(hua)解(jie)金(jin)融(rong)風險則(ze)是重(zhong)(zhong)中之(zhi)重(zhong)(zhong)。雖未(wei)單獨強(qiang)調金(jin)融(rong)去杠桿(gan),但加強(qiang)監(jian)管和市(shi)場規范的(de)(de)(de)(de)基調整體上在(zai)之(zhi)前市(shi)場預期內。綜(zong)合(he)研(yan)判(pan),明(ming)年仍(reng)(reng)是遏投(tou)機+去杠桿(gan)+抑炒作難言寬松的(de)(de)(de)(de)環境,重(zhong)(zhong)視業(ye)績和成(cheng)(cheng)長(chang)性(xing)仍(reng)(reng)是主線(xian)。未(wei)來中國經濟的(de)(de)(de)(de)發展側重(zhong)(zhong)于質量(liang)發展而非簡(jian)單數量(liang)增(zeng)長(chang),IPO常態化(hua)背景(jing)下,各行業(ye)集中度在(zai)向龍頭(tou)企(qi)業(ye)聚集,A股(gu)市(shi)場被機構投(tou)資(zi)者(zhe)掌控主導權,在(zai)業(ye)績成(cheng)(cheng)長(chang)+估值修復雙輪驅動下,質優成(cheng)(cheng)長(chang)股(gu)仍(reng)(reng)會鞏固(gu)其股(gu)市(shi)稀缺性(xing)核心(xin)資(zi)產的(de)(de)(de)(de)地(di)位,并(bing)繼續(xu)(xu)享受(shou)流動性(xing)溢價和資(zi)金(jin)追捧。
年(nian)內交(jiao)易僅剩最(zui)后收(shou)官周(zhou),資金面(mian)緊張+機(ji)構(gou)調(diao)(diao)倉擾動終(zhong)將過去。高(gao)位龍馬(ma)股短期經過一(yi)波調(diao)(diao)整業已釋放一(yi)定估值(zhi)+高(gao)漲幅風險,部分資金著手明年(nian)的(de)(de)布(bu)局(ju)已經開始,類似白酒飲料(liao)等估值(zhi)+業績相對合(he)理的(de)(de)個股已經結束(shu)調(diao)(diao)整重啟升(sheng)勢。重要會議定調(diao)(diao)經濟(ji)金融諸多(duo)領域的(de)(de)發展(zhan)方向,提升(sheng)了市場(chang)對改革(ge)預期的(de)(de)信(xin)心,在一(yi)定程度上(shang)修(xiu)復了市場(chang)風險偏好,市場(chang)跨年(nian)度行情其實已在大多(duo)數人猶豫中開始。策略上(shang)在存(cun)量博弈(yi)市況下(xia),擇(ze)股以流動性(xing)佳+行業景(jing)氣度高(gao)+政策受益(yi)確定性(xing)強(qiang)為(wei)標準,圍繞業績及估值(zhi)匹配(pei)度進(jin)一(yi)步篩選(xuan)后的(de)(de)標的(de)(de)股作為(wei)股票池;反之(zhi)對流動性(xing)差和有利空沖擊股要敬而遠之(zhi)。
本周趨勢 震蕩
中線趨勢 看漲
本周區(qu)間(jian) 3260-3310點
本周熱點(dian) 高端(duan)制造(zao)
本周(zhou)焦點 大金融
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