周五大(da)盤(pan)在權重(zhong)股(gu)上(shang)證50板(ban)塊(kuai)的(de)帶動下走(zou)出(chu)探(tan)底回(hui)升走(zou)勢,指數從底部向上(shang)拉(la)回(hui)但個(ge)股(gu)反應(ying)不大(da),主(zhu)要(yao)(yao)上(shang)漲的(de)仍(reng)(reng)然是(shi)(shi)上(shang)證50權重(zhong)板(ban)塊(kuai)。成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)交量(liang)(liang)上(shang)目(mu)前(qian)(qian)仍(reng)(reng)然是(shi)(shi)縮量(liang)(liang)狀態,不支持(chi)大(da)部分個(ge)股(gu)止跌,對(dui)(dui)于(yu)權重(zhong)板(ban)塊(kuai)能(neng)夠在目(mu)前(qian)(qian)位置穩住的(de)情況下,依然對(dui)(dui)后市不過(guo)分悲觀(guan),但仍(reng)(reng)要(yao)(yao)警惕八類(lei)個(ge)股(gu)的(de)補跌未完。目(mu)前(qian)(qian)盤(pan)面上(shang)跌停(ting)個(ge)股(gu)數量(liang)(liang)仍(reng)(reng)然有60多(duo)家(jia),對(dui)(dui)于(yu)質押比較(jiao)較(jiao)大(da)和(he)業績較(jiao)差(cha)的(de)個(ge)股(gu),需要(yao)(yao)注意耐心(xin)等待(dai)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)交量(liang)(liang)能(neng)否(fou)重(zhong)新放大(da),形(xing)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)場外(wai)資金進場信號。
上(shang)證指數60分鐘(zhong)級(ji)別macd依然維(wei)持(chi)開口向下(xia)運(yun)行(xing),說明多數個股并(bing)未明顯止(zhi)跌(die),只(zhi)是(shi)部分基本面(mian)優良的抗跌(die)品種出現反彈,且(qie)權重(zhong)板塊并(bing)無太(tai)多貢獻(xian)。均(jun)線系統由原(yuan)先的上(shang)升形(xing)態正在(zai)轉入(ru)至(zhi)少是(shi)弱勢(shi)震蕩形(xing)態,只(zhi)有60分鐘(zhong)macd再次走好才能止(zhi)跌(die)。在(zai)60分鐘(zhong)macd再次金叉(cha)前,暫不(bu)宜(yi)盲目(mu)抄底,繼續謹慎對(dui)待形(xing)態已(yi)經(jing)走壞(huai),和處(chu)于(yu)高位尚未補跌(die)的個股。
近期雖然(ran)創(chuang)業(ye)板(ban)指數(shu)走勢不(bu)盡如人意,但(dan)創(chuang)業(ye)板(ban)中的傳(chuan)媒板(ban)塊逆(ni)勢抗跌特征十分明(ming)顯,盤(pan)中多次有資金(jin)護盤(pan)跡(ji)象(xiang)。隨著創(chuang)業(ye)板(ban)估值被不(bu)斷壓(ya)低,歷(li)史上多次出(chu)現(xian)大牛股的傳(chuan)媒板(ban)塊是否存在(zai)較大機會呢(ni)?
1、A 股傳媒板(ban)塊歷(li)來在牛市中(zhong)走(zou)勢(shi)強于大盤,相關股票彈性較好,從2015年以來經過三年的(de)調整,A 股傳媒板(ban)塊整體估值已回(hui)落至(zhi)具備(bei)投(tou)資吸(xi)引力的(de)區間,諸多質地純(chun)正(zheng),品質優異,市場份額領先的(de)標的(de)PEG已回(hui)落至(zhi)1 倍以下甚至(zhi)更(geng)低。
2、優質公(gong)司業績持續錄得正增(zeng)長。2017年年報預增(zeng)披(pi)露(lu)情況顯示(shi)(shi),傳媒板塊大部分專注于(yu)主業的上(shang)市(shi)公(gong)司營業收(shou)入和凈利潤均錄得正增(zeng)長。展望2018年,渠道調研顯示(shi)(shi),電(dian)影行業市(shi)場容(rong)量(liang)增(zeng)速不(bu)低(di)(di)于(yu)15%,精品電(dian)視(shi)劇按年均價漲幅約(yue)為20%,移(yi)動(dong)游戲預估(gu)按年市(shi)場容(rong)量(liang)增(zeng)長不(bu)低(di)(di)于(yu)30%。搭配與(移(yi)動(dong))互聯網(wang)結合的諸多商業模(mo)式創(chuang)新(xin),中國傳媒產業仍處于(yu)高增(zeng)長時期。
3、傳媒(mei)板塊內市場份(fen)額領先、質地純正、管(guan)理層誠信且解禁風險(xian)低的公司是投(tou)資(zi)者(zhe)的首選標(biao)的,同(tong)時,公司護(hu)城河深厚(hou),管(guan)理層誠信度高且估值(zhi)具吸引(yin)力的標(biao)的也是具有較高的投(tou)資(zi)價值(zhi)。隨著投(tou)資(zi)者(zhe)逐漸成熟,也漸趨理性,純炒(chao)概念的標(biao)的將(jiang)無(wu)法獲(huo)得(de)大多數機構投(tou)資(zi)者(zhe)的認(ren)同(tong),籌碼(ma)將(jiang)進(jin)一步傾斜至此類(lei)估值(zhi)更具吸引(yin)力的標(biao)的。
總體來看,傳媒(mei)板(ban)塊作為(wei)創藍籌中彈性較大的(de)品(pin)種,業(ye)(ye)績增(zeng)速和(he)股(gu)價(jia)低估(gu)的(de)預期(qi)差有(you)(you)望(wang)帶來一波(bo)投資(zi)機會。而隨著創業(ye)(ye)板(ban)中期(qi)估(gu)值(zhi)底逐步顯(xian)現,國(guo)內(nei)幾家品(pin)牌(pai)優勢明顯(xian)的(de)傳媒(mei)龍頭(tou)公司有(you)(you)望(wang)成為(wei)2018年市場的(de)避風港。
操作上(shang),中期(qi)繼續關注大消費行(xing)業二線(xian)(xian)白馬股的(de)趨勢性上(shang)漲行(xing)情(qing);短(duan)線(xian)(xian)上(shang)建議(yi)耐心等(deng)待權重(zhong)(zhong)股調整到位,適當關注創藍籌中傳媒、環保、科(ke)技類權重(zhong)(zhong)品種。北京博星證券(quan)投顧(gu)鄭楠認為(wei),在(zai)銀行(xing)、地產(chan)、券(quan)商等(deng)權重(zhong)(zhong)板塊表(biao)現(xian)不(bu)積極的(de)情(qing)況下,投資者(zhe)仍(reng)然需要(yao)謹防短(duan)期(qi)風(feng)險,尤(you)其是業績增長不(bu)及(ji)預期(qi)的(de)高(gao)位個股補(bu)跌(die)風(feng)險。
中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)證(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)網(wang)(wang)(wang)聲明(ming):凡本(ben)(ben)網(wang)(wang)(wang)注(zhu)明(ming)“來(lai)源:中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國證(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)券(quan)(quan)報·中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)證(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)網(wang)(wang)(wang)”的(de)所有作品,版權(quan)均屬于中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國證(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)券(quan)(quan)報、中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)證(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)網(wang)(wang)(wang)。中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國證(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)券(quan)(quan)報·中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)證(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)網(wang)(wang)(wang)與(yu)作品作者(zhe)聯合聲明(ming),任何(he)組織未經中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國證(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)券(quan)(quan)報、中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)證(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)網(wang)(wang)(wang)以及作者(zhe)書面(mian)授權(quan)不得轉(zhuan)(zhuan)載(zai)、摘編或利用(yong)其(qi)(qi)它方(fang)式使(shi)用(yong)上(shang)述作品。凡本(ben)(ben)網(wang)(wang)(wang)注(zhu)明(ming)來(lai)源非中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國證(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)券(quan)(quan)報·中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)證(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)網(wang)(wang)(wang)的(de)作品,均轉(zhuan)(zhuan)載(zai)自其(qi)(qi)它媒(mei)體,轉(zhuan)(zhuan)載(zai)目(mu)的(de)在于更好服務(wu)讀者(zhe)、傳遞信息之(zhi)需,并不代(dai)表本(ben)(ben)網(wang)(wang)(wang)贊(zan)同其(qi)(qi)觀點,本(ben)(ben)網(wang)(wang)(wang)亦(yi)不對其(qi)(qi)真實性負(fu)責,持異(yi)議者(zhe)應與(yu)原出處(chu)單位(wei)主張權(quan)利。
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