提示聲明：

　　本文所涉及的市場策略分析不代表中證網觀點，不作為投資者買賣股票的依據。股市有風險，投資須謹慎。

　　華創證券：理性看待市場調整 把握戰略配置機會

　　華創證券首席策略分(fen)析師王君(jun)5日接受中國證券報記(ji)者(zhe)采訪時表示(shi)，投資(zi)者(zhe)應該理性(xing)看(kan)待市(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)的(de)(de)下跌，立(li)足(zu)中長(chang)期視野，把握下半年戰略配置期的(de)(de)窗口(kou)。從(cong)資(zi)本市(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)開放(fang)背景來看(kan)，改革(ge)的(de)(de)紅(hong)利(li)持續釋放(fang)，互聯互通的(de)(de)機制(zhi)放(fang)開及A股(gu)入摩，不(bu)斷擴容使A股(gu)對外資(zi)吸引(yin)力明顯提高。中國宏(hong)觀經濟韌性(xing)仍在，宏(hong)觀調控和改革(ge)政策儲(chu)備充足(zu)，具備打(da)贏(ying)重(zhong)大風(feng)險攻(gong)堅(jian)戰和應對外部風(feng)險的(de)(de)諸(zhu)多有利(li)條件，支撐A股(gu)有利(li)運(yun)行(xing)。從(cong)市(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)本身運(yun)行(xing)角(jiao)度，估值處于底部區間，7成上市(shi)(shi)公(gong)司中報業績預喜，A股(gu)市(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)投資(zi)價值凸(tu)顯。

　　資本市場深化改革 紅利持續釋放

　　“資(zi)本(ben)市場(chang)改革(ge)紅利(li)持續釋放，重塑著市場(chang)運(yun)行(xing)的邏輯，夯實資(zi)本(ben)市場(chang)穩(wen)健(jian)運(yun)行(xing)基礎。”王君認(ren)為，一系列監管政策密集(ji)落地，下半年(nian)積極推進。中國資(zi)本(ben)市場(chang)法(fa)律環(huan)境越(yue)來(lai)越(yue)好，對上市公司(si)停(ting)牌要求更(geng)嚴(yan)，信息披露標(biao)準不(bu)斷(duan)提高。從規范再融資(zi)、并購重組，到(dao)督促上市公司(si)分(fen)紅；從減持新規打(da)擊“野蠻減持”，到(dao)重塑發審制度，市場(chang)監管水平近年(nian)來(lai)明顯提升。同時，中國資(zi)本(ben)市場(chang)近年(nian)來(lai)對外(wai)開放步伐不(bu)斷(duan)加(jia)(jia)(jia)快。滬港(gang)通、深港(gang)通順利(li)開通，A股成功(gong)納(na)入MSCI指(zhi)數，隨著資(zi)本(ben)市場(chang)穩(wen)健(jian)運(yun)行(xing)基礎的夯實，長(chang)期資(zi)金和海外(wai)投資(zi)者比(bi)例(li)增加(jia)(jia)(jia)，兩(liang)者均偏好理性的價值投資(zi)，長(chang)期促使A股波(bo)動率收斂，價格發現功(gong)能也將更(geng)加(jia)(jia)(jia)完善。

　　具體來看，王君說，資(zi)(zi)本市(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)對外開放格(ge)局不斷加深(shen)(shen)，國(guo)際資(zi)(zi)本不斷涌(yong)入。2018年以(yi)(yi)來，外資(zi)(zi)通(tong)(tong)過滬股(gu)通(tong)(tong)、深(shen)(shen)股(gu)通(tong)(tong)渠道持(chi)續增(zeng)持(chi)A股(gu)資(zi)(zi)金(jin)(jin)累計(ji)凈流入1620.9億元，除受春節影(ying)響的2月以(yi)(yi)外，其余月份均實(shi)現(xian)百(bai)億水平的凈流入，其中(zhong)(zhong)5月份更(geng)是達到創紀錄的508.51億元。A股(gu)正(zheng)式納入MSCI新興市(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)指數后北(bei)上資(zi)(zi)金(jin)(jin)表現(xian)活(huo)躍(yue)，6月成交金(jin)(jin)額(e)達4370.85億元；其中(zhong)(zhong)滬、深(shen)(shen)股(gu)通(tong)(tong)成交活(huo)躍(yue)，成交金(jin)(jin)額(e)創下今年以(yi)(yi)來次新高(gao)。全球(qiu)資(zi)(zi)本持(chi)續流入A股(gu)市(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)背后是基(ji)于中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)經濟基(ji)本面韌性，A股(gu)納入MSCI長期(qi)(qi)(qi)利(li)好市(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)健康發展。A股(gu)入摩中(zhong)(zhong)長期(qi)(qi)(qi)重塑市(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)結構，推動市(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)更(geng)加開放。就中(zhong)(zhong)長期(qi)(qi)(qi)而(er)言，A股(gu)納入MSCI后外資(zi)(zi)對于A股(gu)的配置更(geng)加確定(ding)，中(zhong)(zhong)長期(qi)(qi)(qi)的外資(zi)(zi)增(zeng)量(liang)會進一步增(zeng)加。有利(li)于重塑市(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)結構，推動市(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)更(geng)加開放。

　　此(ci)外(wai)，王君認為，伴隨著史(shi)上(shang)“最嚴減(jian)(jian)(jian)持(chi)(chi)新(xin)(xin)規(gui)”實(shi)施(shi)一(yi)年(nian)(nian)，高管減(jian)(jian)(jian)持(chi)(chi)市(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)值明顯銳減(jian)(jian)(jian)。減(jian)(jian)(jian)持(chi)(chi)新(xin)(xin)規(gui)實(shi)施(shi)的(de)前一(yi)年(nian)(nian)，滬(hu)深(shen)兩(liang)市(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)重(zhong)要股(gu)東(dong)通(tong)過(guo)二級(ji)市(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)的(de)減(jian)(jian)(jian)持(chi)(chi)市(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)值約(yue)為429.03億(yi)元(yuan)、滬(hu)深(shen)兩(liang)市(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)高管的(de)減(jian)(jian)(jian)持(chi)(chi)市(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)值約(yue)為708.75億(yi)元(yuan)；新(xin)(xin)規(gui)實(shi)施(shi)后(hou)(hou)的(de)一(yi)年(nian)(nian)，滬(hu)深(shen)兩(liang)市(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)重(zhong)要股(gu)東(dong)通(tong)過(guo)二級(ji)市(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)的(de)減(jian)(jian)(jian)持(chi)(chi)市(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)值約(yue)為684.84億(yi)元(yuan)、滬(hu)深(shen)兩(liang)市(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)高管的(de)減(jian)(jian)(jian)持(chi)(chi)市(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)值約(yue)為253.62億(yi)元(yuan)。減(jian)(jian)(jian)持(chi)(chi)新(xin)(xin)規(gui)落地一(yi)年(nian)(nian)之后(hou)(hou)，高管通(tong)過(guo)二級(ji)市(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)減(jian)(jian)(jian)持(chi)(chi)的(de)市(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)值較上(shang)一(yi)年(nian)(nian)明顯減(jian)(jian)(jian)少約(yue)450億(yi)元(yuan)。從存量上(shang)緩解(jie)了(le)市(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)對(dui)于大(da)量解(jie)禁(jin)的(de)恐慌(huang)情緒，逐(zhu)步疏導(dao)減(jian)(jian)(jian)輕市(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)壓力；從方向上(shang)引導(dao)部分(fen)套利過(guo)橋(qiao)資金逐(zhu)步脫虛向實(shi)。