【研究報告內容摘要】

　　事件:7月4日,公司(si)公告(gao)18年6月份銷(xiao)(xiao)售數據(ju),6月份公司(si)實現(xian)合(he)同銷(xiao)(xiao)售面積449.90萬(wan)方,同比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長29.13%,合(he)同銷(xiao)(xiao)售金(jin)額656.30億(yi)元,同比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長33.58%;1-6月份公司(si)累計(ji)實現(xian)銷(xiao)(xiao)售面積2035.5萬(wan)方,同比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長8.94%,累計(ji)合(he)同銷(xiao)(xiao)售金(jin)額3046.6億(yi)元,同比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長9.91%。

　　銷(xiao)售(shou)(shou):1)6月(yue)銷(xiao)售(shou)(shou)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)超三成:18年(nian)6月(yue),公司實現(xian)合同(tong)(tong)銷(xiao)售(shou)(shou)面積449.90萬(wan)方,同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)29.13%,環(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)60.85%;實現(xian)合同(tong)(tong)銷(xiao)售(shou)(shou)金額(e)(e)656.30億元(yuan)(yuan),同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)33.58%,環(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)53.06%;銷(xiao)售(shou)(shou)均價(jia)14587.69元(yuan)(yuan)/平米,同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)3.45%,環(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)下(xia)降4.85%(較上月(yue)收窄743.02元(yuan)(yuan)/平米);2)前(qian)(qian)6月(yue)銷(xiao)售(shou)(shou)量價(jia)齊增(zeng)(zeng):18年(nian)1-6月(yue)份公司累計實現(xian)銷(xiao)售(shou)(shou)面積2035.5萬(wan)方,同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)8.94%(前(qian)(qian)值(zhi)+4.32%),累計合同(tong)(tong)銷(xiao)售(shou)(shou)金額(e)(e)3046.6億元(yuan)(yuan),同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)9.91%(前(qian)(qian)值(zhi)+4.81%);累計銷(xiao)售(shou)(shou)均價(jia)14967.33元(yuan)(yuan)/平米,同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)微(wei)漲0.89pct(前(qian)(qian)值(zhi)+0.48pct);累計銷(xiao)售(shou)(shou)均價(jia)高于(yu)6月(yue)單月(yue)均價(jia)379.64元(yuan)(yuan)/平米(幅度為2.60pct)。在政策(ce)允許的范圍內,公司也將堅持積極推盤的策(ce)略。

　　6月拿地(di)(di)(di)(di)額(e)/銷(xiao)售額(e)33.76%,新(xin)(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)項(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)平均(jun)權(quan)(quan)(quan)益(yi)(yi)(yi)比(bi)(bi)例64.25%:公司(si)18年(nian)6月新(xin)(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)土地(di)(di)(di)(di)項(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)43個(ge)(ge),其中(zhong)4個(ge)(ge)為(wei)(wei)(wei)物流(liu)地(di)(di)(di)(di)產(chan)項(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu),39個(ge)(ge)項(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)為(wei)(wei)(wei)新(xin)(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)土地(di)(di)(di)(di)項(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu);物流(liu)地(di)(di)(di)(di)產(chan)項(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)總計增(zeng)(zeng)加占(zhan)(zhan)地(di)(di)(di)(di)面(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)積(ji)(ji)(ji)37.96萬(wan)(wan)方(fang),權(quan)(quan)(quan)益(yi)(yi)(yi)建(jian)筑(zhu)面(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)積(ji)(ji)(ji)26.85萬(wan)(wan)方(fang)。新(xin)(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)土地(di)(di)(di)(di)項(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)中(zhong),土地(di)(di)(di)(di)凈占(zhan)(zhan)地(di)(di)(di)(di)面(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)積(ji)(ji)(ji)336.30萬(wan)(wan)方(fang),計容(rong)建(jian)筑(zhu)面(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)積(ji)(ji)(ji)725萬(wan)(wan)方(fang),較上年(nian)同(tong)期(qi)分別增(zeng)(zeng)長148.74%、89.39%,權(quan)(quan)(quan)益(yi)(yi)(yi)建(jian)筑(zhu)面(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)積(ji)(ji)(ji)465.8萬(wan)(wan)方(fang),權(quan)(quan)(quan)益(yi)(yi)(yi)建(jian)筑(zhu)面(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)積(ji)(ji)(ji)/計容(rong)建(jian)筑(zhu)面(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)積(ji)(ji)(ji)比(bi)(bi)例達64.25%,即(ji)若以(yi)權(quan)(quan)(quan)益(yi)(yi)(yi)建(jian)筑(zhu)面(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)積(ji)(ji)(ji)/計容(rong)建(jian)筑(zhu)面(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)積(ji)(ji)(ji)計算平均(jun)權(quan)(quan)(quan)益(yi)(yi)(yi)比(bi)(bi)例,6月新(xin)(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)項(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)中(zhong)公司(si)平均(jun)權(quan)(quan)(quan)益(yi)(yi)(yi)比(bi)(bi)例為(wei)(wei)(wei)64.25%,50%以(yi)上權(quan)(quan)(quan)益(yi)(yi)(yi)的(de)項(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(含50%):50%以(yi)下(xia)權(quan)(quan)(quan)益(yi)(yi)(yi)的(de)項(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)為(wei)(wei)(wei)10/3;100%權(quan)(quan)(quan)益(yi)(yi)(yi)的(de)項(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu):非100%權(quan)(quan)(quan)益(yi)(yi)(yi)的(de)項(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)為(wei)(wei)(wei)3/10。6月新(xin)(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)土地(di)(di)(di)(di)總地(di)(di)(di)(di)價(jia)(jia)(jia)341.26億元(yuan),同(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長74.34%;新(xin)(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)權(quan)(quan)(quan)益(yi)(yi)(yi)地(di)(di)(di)(di)價(jia)(jia)(jia)221.57億元(yuan),同(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長53.97%;其中(zhong),權(quan)(quan)(quan)益(yi)(yi)(yi)拿地(di)(di)(di)(di)額(e)/6月銷(xiao)售額(e)占(zhan)(zhan)比(bi)(bi)為(wei)(wei)(wei)33.76%(前值(zhi)34.29%),拿地(di)(di)(di)(di)相(xiang)對平穩(wen)。從拿地(di)(di)(di)(di)均(jun)價(jia)(jia)(jia)來(lai)看(kan)(kan),6新(xin)(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)土地(di)(di)(di)(di)樓面(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)價(jia)(jia)(jia)4707.06元(yuan)/平米(同(tong)比(bi)(bi)-7.95%),權(quan)(quan)(quan)益(yi)(yi)(yi)樓面(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)價(jia)(jia)(jia)4756.76元(yuan)/平米。從新(xin)(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)項(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)的(de)地(di)(di)(di)(di)區分布來(lai)看(kan)(kan),新(xin)(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)土地(di)(di)(di)(di)項(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)基本位(wei)于浙江東部等核心(xin)城(cheng)市二線(xian)城(cheng)市或強三線(xian)城(cheng)市,拿地(di)(di)(di)(di)成本優勢(shi)顯著。

　　投資建議:我們看(kan)好公(gong)(gong)司諸(zhu)如“軌道+物業(ye)”、物流地(di)產、長租公(gong)(gong)寓及物業(ye)服務等多元(yuan)化業(ye)務發展(zhan)戰略的前景;看(kan)好公(gong)(gong)司在行業(ye)集(ji)中度(du)不斷向龍頭聚集(ji)的背景下的優勢。我們預(yu)期18年業(ye)績繼續穩步增長;預(yu)計(ji)公(gong)(gong)司18-20年公(gong)(gong)司EPS為2.88、3.15、3.58,維(wei)持(chi)“買入(ru)-A”評級(ji),6個月目標價33元(yuan)。

　　風險提示:房地產市場不及預期(qi)(qi)、政(zheng)策(ce)調控過度、公司經營不達(da)預期(qi)(qi)