國泰君安:建議“增持”蘇寧易購
研究(jiu)報(bao)告內容摘要:
本報告導讀:
營收增速符(fu)合預期,小店(dian)出(chu)表增厚業(ye)績(ji),線(xian)下門店(dian)持(chi)續擴(kuo)張,線(xian)上聚焦社交運營,收購萬達(da)、家樂福持(chi)續補(bu)足非(fei)電(dian)業(ye)務(wu)布局,多品類、全渠道、全場景發(fa)展優勢(shi)持(chi)續凸顯。
投資要點:
投資(zi)建議(yi):業績符合預(yu)期,多品類(lei)全(quan)(quan)渠(qu)道全(quan)(quan)場景發展優(you)勢持(chi)續凸顯(xian),維(wei)持(chi) 2019-2021 年 EPS 預(yu)測 0.54/0.24/0.33 元(yuan),目標價(jia) 17.46 元(yuan),增持(chi)。
業(ye)績符合預期。蘇(su)寧公告 2019H1 業(ye)績快報,實(shi)(shi)現收入(ru) 1346.18 億(yi)(yi)元(yuan),同(tong)比+21.63%,實(shi)(shi)現歸母凈利潤(run) 21.39 億(yi)(yi)元(yuan),同(tong)比下降 64.37%,主(zhu)要系2018H1 出售(shou)阿里股票 56 億(yi)(yi)元(yuan)投資(zi)收益影響。全渠道 GMV 1842.15 億(yi)(yi)元(yuan),同(tong)比+21.80%,線(xian)上 GMV 1121.5 億(yi)(yi)元(yuan),同(tong)比+26.98%,其中自營796.95 億(yi)(yi)元(yuan),同(tong)比+25.6%,第三(san)方 324.55 億(yi)(yi)元(yuan),同(tong)比+30.50%。
線下多場景持續推進,優(you)勢進一(yi)步鞏固。截止 2019H1,有 54 家(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)蘇寧易購(gou)廣場(+1),零售云(yun)店(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian) 5108 家(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(直營店(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian) 1746 家(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia),加盟店(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian) 3362家(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)),家(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)電 3C 家(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)居生活專(zhuan)業(ye)店(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian) 2,110 家(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(云(yun)店(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian) 446 家(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia),常規(gui)店(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian) 1642家(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia),縣(xian)鎮(zhen)店(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian) 22 家(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)),紅孩子 172 家(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(+15)。受到經(jing)濟環境影響,家(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)電3C 家(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)居生活專(zhuan)業(ye)店(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)可(ke)比(bi)店(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)銷售收(shou)入(ru)同(tong)(tong)比(bi)下降(jiang) 5.66%,零售云(yun)直營店(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)同(tong)(tong)比(bi)下降(jiang) 6.27%,紅孩子同(tong)(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)長 16.84%。
線上聚焦社交(jiao)運(yun)(yun)營(ying),物流、金融(rong)基(ji)礎設(she)施進一步(bu)完(wan)善。公(gong)司強化(hua)蘇(su)寧拼購、蘇(su)寧推客、蘇(su)小團等運(yun)(yun)營(ying)產品的(de)創新,截止(zhi) 2019H1 公(gong)司零售(shou)體系注冊會員數(shu)(shu)量 4.42 億。截止(zhi) 2019H1 蘇(su)寧物流及天天快遞(di)(di)擁(yong)有(you)倉儲及相關配套總面(mian)積 1,090 萬平方米,快遞(di)(di)網點 24,615 個(ge),。2019H1 消費(fei)金融(rong)業務(wu)投(tou)放(fang)額同(tong)比(bi)(bi)+100%+,供應鏈金融(rong)業務(wu)投(tou)放(fang)額同(tong)比(bi)(bi)+41.3%,支付用戶交(jiao)易筆數(shu)(shu)同(tong)比(bi)(bi)+31%,其中線下移(yi)動支付業務(wu)同(tong)比(bi)(bi)+231%。
風險因素:經濟下滑拖累消費、行業競爭加劇(ju)等。