研究報告內容摘要：

　　核心觀點

　　6  月(yue)白(bai)酒產(chan)量增(zeng)速明(ming)顯回升(sheng)，名(ming)酒終端價(jia)基本(ben)保持穩定(ding)。2019  年  6  月(yue)全(quan)國白(bai)酒產(chan)量  72.8  萬(wan)千升(sheng)，同比(bi)上升(sheng)  7.9%；全(quan)國  2019  年  1-6  月(yue)白(bai)酒累計(ji)產(chan)量397.6  萬(wan)千升(sheng)，累計(ji)同比(bi)上升(sheng)  2.2%。京東(dong)部分名(ming)優白(bai)酒  2019  年  7  月(yue)  26  日價(jia)格環比(bi)  6  月(yue)  28  日價(jia)格：京東(dong)  52  度(du)五糧液下(xia)降 ; 10  元至  1,249  元/瓶(ping)；52度(du)劍南春維持  408  元/瓶(ping)；52  度(du)水井坊上升(sheng)  5  元至  519  元/瓶(ping)。

　　6  月(yue)啤(pi)酒(jiu)(jiu)產(chan)量(liang)(liang)增速亮眼，進口(kou)葡萄(tao)酒(jiu)(jiu)量(liang)(liang)升(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)價(jia)減。19  年  6  月(yue)全國啤(pi)酒(jiu)(jiu)產(chan)量(liang)(liang)  440.1萬(wan)(wan)(wan)千升(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，同(tong)比上(shang)升(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)  4.5%；啤(pi)酒(jiu)(jiu)行(xing)(xing)業(ye)  2019  年  1-6  月(yue)累(lei)計產(chan)量(liang)(liang)  1,948.8  萬(wan)(wan)(wan)千升(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，累(lei)計同(tong)比上(shang)升(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)  0.8%。進口(kou)大麥的價(jia)格  6  月(yue)為  276.1  美元(yuan)/噸(dun)，環比  5  月(yue)上(shang)升(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)1.2  美元(yuan)/噸(dun)，同(tong)比上(shang)升(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)  8.5%。6  月(yue)全國葡萄(tao)酒(jiu)(jiu)產(chan)量(liang)(liang)  4.3  萬(wan)(wan)(wan)千升(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，同(tong)比下(xia)降(jiang)6.5%；2019  年葡萄(tao)酒(jiu)(jiu)行(xing)(xing)業(ye)  1-6  月(yue)累(lei)計產(chan)量(liang)(liang)  24.5  萬(wan)(wan)(wan)千升(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，同(tong)比下(xia)降(jiang)  19.9%。6  月(yue)葡萄(tao)酒(jiu)(jiu)進口(kou)數量(liang)(liang)  5.89  萬(wan)(wan)(wan)千升(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，同(tong)比上(shang)升(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)  9.0%（5  月(yue)下(xia)降(jiang)  3.6%）；進口(kou)平均單價(jia)  5,192  美元(yuan)/千升(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，同(tong)比下(xia)降(jiang)  20.4%。

　　生(sheng)豬(zhu)存欄數(shu)持續下滑(hua)，豬(zhu)肉(rou)(rou)牛肉(rou)(rou)批發(fa)價持續提升。商(shang)務部公(gong)(gong)布的  19  年  7  月(yue)(yue)26  日(ri)鮮豬(zhu)肉(rou)(rou)批發(fa)價  25.0  元(yuan)(yuan)/公(gong)(gong)斤，環(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)  6  月(yue)(yue)  28  日(ri)上升  1.9  元(yuan)(yuan)/公(gong)(gong)斤。6  月(yue)(yue)生(sheng)豬(zhu)存欄量  24,207  萬頭，同比(bi)(bi)(bi)下滑(hua)  25.8%，環(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)下滑(hua)  5.1%。全國(guo)大中城(cheng)市  2019年  7  月(yue)(yue)  24  日(ri)豬(zhu)糧比(bi)(bi)(bi)價  9.17。2019  年  7  月(yue)(yue)  17  日(ri)全國(guo)牛肉(rou)(rou)平均價  69.96  元(yuan)(yuan)/公(gong)(gong)斤，環(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)  6  月(yue)(yue)  19  日(ri)上升  0.79  元(yuan)(yuan)/公(gong)(gong)斤。7  月(yue)(yue)第五周國(guo)內(nei)玉(yu)米現(xian)貨價  1,979元(yuan)(yuan)/噸，同比(bi)(bi)(bi)上升  7.4%，國(guo)內(nei)豆粕(po)現(xian)貨價  2,842  元(yuan)(yuan)/噸，同比(bi)(bi)(bi)下降  9.5%。

　　國內生鮮乳價(jia)(jia)格穩步提(ti)升(sheng)，GDT  奶(nai)(nai)(nai)粉(fen)(fen)拍(pai)賣價(jia)(jia)上(shang)行。7  月(yue)(yue)  17  日農(nong)業部主產區生鮮乳價(jia)(jia)格  3.58  元/公(gong)斤，環比(bi)(bi)  6  月(yue)(yue)  19  日提(ti)升(sheng)  0.8%；2019  年  7  月(yue)(yue)  16  日新西蘭(lan)全脂奶(nai)(nai)(nai)粉(fen)(fen)合約拍(pai)賣價(jia)(jia)格  3,074  美元/公(gong)噸(dun)(dun)，環比(bi)(bi)  6  月(yue)(yue)  18  日上(shang)升(sheng)  2.3%；脫(tuo)脂奶(nai)(nai)(nai)粉(fen)(fen)合約價(jia)(jia)格  2,505  美元/公(gong)噸(dun)(dun)，環比(bi)(bi)  6  月(yue)(yue)  18  日上(shang)升(sheng)  6.2%。6  月(yue)(yue)奶(nai)(nai)(nai)粉(fen)(fen)當月(yue)(yue)進口(kou)數量(liang)  6.43  萬(wan)噸(dun)(dun)，同比(bi)(bi)上(shang)升(sheng)  30.2%；6  月(yue)(yue)液(ye)態奶(nai)(nai)(nai)當月(yue)(yue)進口(kou)量(liang)  6.76  萬(wan)噸(dun)(dun)，同比(bi)(bi)上(shang)升(sheng)  27.4%；6  月(yue)(yue)鮮奶(nai)(nai)(nai)進口(kou)量(liang)  6.49  萬(wan)噸(dun)(dun)，同比(bi)(bi)上(shang)升(sheng)  28.0%。

　　6  月(yue)(yue)(yue)餐飲(yin)及社零(ling)增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)持(chi)續提升，CPI  食(shi)品(pin)增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)保(bao)持(chi)上(shang)行。餐飲(yin)業  19  年  6  月(yue)(yue)(yue)收入(ru)  3,723.3  億(yi)(yi)元(yuan)，同(tong)增(zeng)(zeng)  9.5%；19  年  1-6  月(yue)(yue)(yue)收入(ru)累計值  21,279.5  億(yi)(yi)元(yuan)，累計同(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)  9.4%；限額以上(shang)餐飲(yin)企業  1-6  月(yue)(yue)(yue)收入(ru)累計  4,497.0  億(yi)(yi)元(yuan)，同(tong)增(zeng)(zeng)  7.2%。社會消費品(pin)零(ling)售總額  19  年  1-6  月(yue)(yue)(yue)累計值  19.52  萬(wan)億(yi)(yi)元(yuan)，同(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長  8.4%。全(quan)國固定資(zi)產投資(zi)完成額  19  年  1-6  月(yue)(yue)(yue)累計  29.91  萬(wan)億(yi)(yi)元(yuan)，同(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長  5.8%；2019年  6  月(yue)(yue)(yue)  CPI  食(shi)品(pin)同(tong)比(bi)上(shang)升  8.3%，環比(bi)  5  月(yue)(yue)(yue)增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)（7.7%）上(shang)升  0.4  個百分點(dian)。

　　投資建(jian)議與投資標的

　　建(jian)議關注改(gai)(gai)革優勢突(tu)出、挺價(jia)順利(li)(li)的(de)(de)五糧液(000858，買入(ru)(ru))；省內四開勢能形(xing)成、團購高增確定性(xing)強(qiang)的(de)(de)今世緣(603369，買入(ru)(ru))；品類升(sheng)級渠(qu)道(dao)下沉、液奶收入(ru)(ru)持(chi)續高增的(de)(de)伊(yi)利(li)(li)股份(fen)(600887，買入(ru)(ru))；出貨量環比改(gai)(gai)善(shan)、結構持(chi)續升(sheng)級、費(fei)用管控(kong)增強(qiang)、增值稅率下調增厚利(li)(li)潤的(de)(de)青島啤酒(jiu)(600600，增持(chi))。

　　風險提示

　　經濟低(di)迷導致(zhi)需求(qiu)下(xia)滑(hua)，食品安全(quan)問題(ti)。