研究報告內容摘要：

　　鋰電(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)性能提(ti)(ti)升需(xu)求對導(dao)電(dian)(dian)(dian)劑提(ti)(ti)出了更高(gao)(gao)期待。導(dao)電(dian)(dian)(dian)劑作為(wei)鋰離子電(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)的重(zhong)(zhong)要(yao)組成部分，直接影(ying)響電(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)的容(rong)量(liang)發揮、內(nei)阻(zu)、倍(bei)率、循環壽命等性能。尤其(qi)在鋰電(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)追求越來越高(gao)(gao)的活性物質含(han)量(liang)背景下，傳(chuan)統導(dao)電(dian)(dian)(dian)劑已(yi)不能滿(man)足電(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)發展需(xu)求，提(ti)(ti)高(gao)(gao)鋰電(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)容(rong)量(liang)，提(ti)(ti)高(gao)(gao)電(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)的倍(bei)率性能等成為(wei)鋰電(dian)(dian)(dian)導(dao)電(dian)(dian)(dian)劑的重(zhong)(zhong)要(yao)方向。

　　碳納米管（CNT）是極(ji)具發展潛力的(de)新型導(dao)電劑(ji)(ji)材(cai)料：（1）CNT作(zuo)為導(dao)電劑(ji)(ji)加入電極(ji)中可(ke)以構建通暢(chang)的(de)電子導(dao)電三(san)維網絡，構成與活(huo)性(xing)材(cai)料之間的(de)線性(xing)接觸，從(cong)而大幅提升(sheng)(sheng)整體(ti)導(dao)電性(xing)。（2）相較(jiao)于(yu)傳統導(dao)電劑(ji)(ji)，CNT可(ke)進一步(bu)減少(shao)導(dao)電劑(ji)(ji)添(tian)加量，從(cong)而提升(sheng)(sheng)電池整體(ti)帶(dai)電量。（3）除此，CNT獨(du)特的(de)導(dao)電網絡可(ke)提升(sheng)(sheng)電池的(de)倍率(lv)、散(san)熱性(xing)能等，進一步(bu)提升(sheng)(sheng)綜合性(xing)能。

　　成(cheng)本及材料(liao)團聚困境逐步突(tu)破，CNT大規(gui)模(mo)推廣成(cheng)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)可能。成(cheng)本方面，（1）傳統炭黑(hei)：按照導(dao)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)劑(ji)度電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)消耗量(liang)約(yue)(yue)0.03kg/kwh,炭黑(hei)價(jia)格(ge)(ge)35元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/千克(ke)計算，度電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)炭黑(hei)成(cheng)本約(yue)(yue)1.05元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/kwh；參考高(gao)工鋰電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)數據，NCM動力(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池度電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)成(cheng)本約(yue)(yue)940元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/kwh,導(dao)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)劑(ji)度電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)成(cheng)本占(zhan)(zhan)比(bi)約(yue)(yue)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)0.11%。（2）CNT導(dao)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)劑(ji)：假(jia)設CNT添加量(liang)約(yue)(yue)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)炭黑(hei)導(dao)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)劑(ji)的(de)三(san)分(fen)之(zhi)一，碳納米(mi)管添加量(liang)約(yue)(yue)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)0.01kg/kwh；目(mu)前CNT漿料(liao)價(jia)格(ge)(ge)已降(jiang)(jiang)至(zhi)約(yue)(yue)47.5元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/kg（按照固含量(liang)約(yue)(yue)4%）,度電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)碳納米(mi)管導(dao)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)劑(ji)成(cheng)本約(yue)(yue)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)9.5元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/kwh，碳納米(mi)管導(dao)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)劑(ji)成(cheng)本占(zhan)(zhan)比(bi)約(yue)(yue)1.0%；（3）分(fen)別以整車帶(dai)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)60kwh,手(shou)機帶(dai)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)4300mah來計算，汽車和手(shou)機的(de)CNT單位(wei)成(cheng)本分(fen)別約(yue)(yue)570元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/輛、0.15元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/臺，目(mu)前CNT價(jia)格(ge)(ge)占(zhan)(zhan)比(bi)已降(jiang)(jiang)至(zhi)下游可接受水平。另一方面，CNT分(fen)散漿料(liao)解決了(le)下游應用(yong)中CNT團聚問(wen)題，使得CNT導(dao)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)劑(ji)大規(gui)模(mo)推廣成(cheng)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)可能。

　　空間測算(suan)：預(yu)計(ji)2019-2025年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)鋰(li)電(dian)領(ling)(ling)域CNT需(xu)(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)(qiu)復合增速約(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)54%，對應(ying)2025年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)CNT漿(jiang)料需(xu)(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)(qiu)量(liang)約(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)38萬(wan)噸(dun)(dun)，對應(ying)市場規(gui)模(mo)約(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)134億(yi)元(yuan)。（1）導電(dian)劑滲(shen)透率方面，根據(ju)高(gao)工鋰(li)電(dian)數(shu)據(ju)，2018年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)動(dong)力(li)(li)(li)鋰(li)電(dian)領(ling)(ling)域CNT滲(shen)透率為31.8%、2020年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)動(dong)力(li)(li)(li)鋰(li)電(dian)領(ling)(ling)域CNT滲(shen)透率或(huo)超過50%，我(wo)們預(yu)計(ji)至(zhi)2025年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)CNT導電(dian)劑滲(shen)透率將(jiang)達(da)到80%。（2）根據(ju)以上假設，①預(yu)計(ji)至(zhi)2025年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)鋰(li)電(dian)領(ling)(ling)域CNT粉體需(xu)(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)(qiu)量(liang)將(jiang)達(da)到約(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)1.5萬(wan)噸(dun)(dun)，折合CNT漿(jiang)料需(xu)(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)(qiu)量(liang)約(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)38萬(wan)噸(dun)(dun)，預(yu)計(ji)2019-2025年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)需(xu)(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)(qiu)CAGR約(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)50%；按照CNT漿(jiang)料價格約(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)3-4萬(wan)元(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)計(ji)算(suan)，市場規(gui)模(mo)約(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)133億(yi)元(yuan)；②其中預(yu)計(ji)至(zhi)2025年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)全(quan)球動(dong)力(li)(li)(li)鋰(li)電(dian)領(ling)(ling)域CNT粉體需(xu)(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)(qiu)將(jiang)達(da)到約(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)1.4萬(wan)噸(dun)(dun)，折合CNT分散漿(jiang)料需(xu)(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)(qiu)量(liang)約(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)35萬(wan)噸(dun)(dun)，2019-2025年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)CAGR約(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)54%，對應(ying)市場體量(liang)約(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)124億(yi)元(yuan)；③預(yu)計(ji)至(zhi)2025年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)非動(dong)力(li)(li)(li)電(dian)池領(ling)(ling)域CNT需(xu)(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)(qiu)量(liang)將(jiang)達(da)到約(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)1138噸(dun)(dun)，折合CNT分散漿(jiang)料需(xu)(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)(qiu)量(liang)約(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)2.8萬(wan)噸(dun)(dun)，預(yu)計(ji)2019-2025需(xu)(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)(qiu)CAGR約(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)28%，對應(ying)市場體量(liang)約(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)10億(yi)元(yuan)。

　　催(cui)化(hua)(hua)劑、生(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)控(kong)(kong)制(zhi)、專(zhuan)(zhuan)(zhuan)利(li)(li)布局(ju)、客戶認(ren)(ren)證(zheng)等(deng)(deng)構筑行業(ye)(ye)(ye)深厚“護城河”。（1）技(ji)(ji)(ji)術壁(bi)(bi)壘：碳納(na)(na)米(mi)(mi)管作為技(ji)(ji)(ji)術密(mi)集型(xing)產(chan)業(ye)(ye)(ye)，在(zai)催(cui)化(hua)(hua)劑制(zhi)備(bei)(bei)(bei)環節(jie)，碳納(na)(na)米(mi)(mi)管宏量制(zhi)備(bei)(bei)(bei)及工藝控(kong)(kong)制(zhi)環節(jie)，碳粉純化(hua)(hua)環節(jie)等(deng)(deng)，均(jun)(jun)具備(bei)(bei)(bei)顯著的進(jin)(jin)入技(ji)(ji)(ji)術壁(bi)(bi)壘。（2）專(zhuan)(zhuan)(zhuan)利(li)(li)壁(bi)(bi)壘：受制(zhi)于先發(fa)(fa)企(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)專(zhuan)(zhuan)(zhuan)利(li)(li)卡位，碳納(na)(na)米(mi)(mi)管行業(ye)(ye)(ye)具備(bei)(bei)(bei)較強的專(zhuan)(zhuan)(zhuan)利(li)(li)進(jin)(jin)入壁(bi)(bi)壘，全球碳納(na)(na)米(mi)(mi)管領先生(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)商(shang)如天奈科技(ji)(ji)(ji)、LG化(hua)(hua)學、卡博特等(deng)(deng)均(jun)(jun)早已科研攻關(guan)各環節(jie)技(ji)(ji)(ji)術及工藝，形成了體(ti)系(xi)化(hua)(hua)的專(zhuan)(zhuan)(zhuan)利(li)(li)布局(ju)，對(dui)潛在(zai)進(jin)(jin)入者造成顯著專(zhuan)(zhuan)(zhuan)利(li)(li)壁(bi)(bi)壘。（3）客戶壁(bi)(bi)壘：碳納(na)(na)米(mi)(mi)導電(dian)劑作為電(dian)極(ji)材料(liao)添加劑，對(dui)原料(liao)的性能(neng)、批次(ci)穩定性、交貨期和(he)供應的及時(shi)性等(deng)(deng)要(yao)求很高，加之客戶更換原料(liao)供應商(shang)的成本(ben)較高（包括產(chan)品(pin)送樣檢測(ce)、供應商(shang)認(ren)(ren)證(zheng)等(deng)(deng)眾(zhong)多(duo)流程），因此鋰電(dian)池企(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)在(zai)選定供應商(shang)前均(jun)(jun)會對(dui)供應商(shang)的生(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)設備(bei)(bei)(bei)、研發(fa)(fa)能(neng)力(li)、生(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)管理(li)、產(chan)品(pin)性能(neng)和(he)產(chan)品(pin)質量控(kong)(kong)制(zhi)能(neng)力(li)進(jin)(jin)行考察和(he)遴選，業(ye)(ye)(ye)務關(guan)系(xi)一旦建立，就會在(zai)相當(dang)長的時(shi)間內保(bao)持穩定。

　　標(biao)的方面，建(jian)議重點關注A股(gu)上市公司天(tian)奈科技(ji)，全產品線(xian)布局鋰電(dian)導電(dian)劑的領先生產商卡(ka)博(bo)特（Cabot）以(yi)及電(dian)池材(cai)料巨頭LG化(hua)學。

　　風險提(ti)示：全球(qiu)電動汽(qi)車(che)銷量大幅下滑；原(yuan)材料(liao)價格劇烈(lie)波動；CNT導電劑推廣不及預期等