聚(ju)焦主業(ye),做大(da)做強種(zhong)子產業(ye),迎接種(zhong)業(ye)發展(zhan)景氣周期。

　　14年(nian)以(yi)來,公司積極調(diao)整產業(ye)結構(gou),停止了油(you)脂等深度虧損(sun)產業(ye),將(jiang)主(zhu)要精(jing)力(li)集中在(zai)(zai)發(fa)(fa)展以(yi)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)為核心的(de)農業(ye)產業(ye)上面,2015年(nian)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)業(ye)務收入(ru)占比達到67%。我(wo)們認為,經(jing)(jing)過2013-2015年(nian)的(de)調(diao)整,目前種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)行業(ye)已(yi)經(jing)(jing)開始復蘇,有望(wang)開啟一輪新的(de)景氣周期,尤其是在(zai)(zai)新《種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)法》落(luo)地、綠(lv)色通(tong)道政策(ce)實施以(yi)及行業(ye)整合加速(su)推(tui)進的(de)背景下,育(yu)繁推(tui)一體化種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)業(ye)強企面臨著良好的(de)發(fa)(fa)展機(ji)遇。

　　新品種加速(su)推出(chu)有望帶(dai)動(dong)種子(zi)業(ye)務業(ye)績提升。

　　敦(dun)(dun)(dun)煌(huang)先(xian)(xian)鋒(feng)是公(gong)(gong)司種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)業(ye)的(de)(de)核心資(zi)產,是公(gong)(gong)司利潤的(de)(de)主(zhu)(zhu)要來源,其(qi)主(zhu)(zhu)打品(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)先(xian)(xian)玉(yu)(yu)(yu)335目前(qian)(qian)已(yi)處(chu)于成(cheng)熟期(qi),但仍具(ju)有(you)(you)明顯優勢(shi)(shi)。此(ci)外,敦(dun)(dun)(dun)煌(huang)先(xian)(xian)鋒(feng)推(tui)(tui)出(chu)了先(xian)(xian)玉(yu)(yu)(yu)508和(he)先(xian)(xian)玉(yu)(yu)(yu)402等區域(yu)性(xing)(xing)優勢(shi)(shi)品(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong),擁有(you)(you)先(xian)(xian)玉(yu)(yu)(yu)1111、1225和(he)1219等新(xin)(xin)審定的(de)(de)儲備品(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong),新(xin)(xin)品(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)的(de)(de)不(bu)斷推(tui)(tui)出(chu)有(you)(you)望使得敦(dun)(dun)(dun)煌(huang)先(xian)(xian)鋒(feng)維持區域(yu)性(xing)(xing)強勢(shi)(shi)地位(wei),敦(dun)(dun)(dun)煌(huang)先(xian)(xian)鋒(feng)業(ye)績有(you)(you)望企穩回升(sheng)。母公(gong)(gong)司方(fang)(fang)面(mian),積極推(tui)(tui)進(jin)聚焦種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)業(ye)戰略(lve),加(jia)大種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)業(ye)研發,目前(qian)(qian)已(yi)初步建立起以公(gong)(gong)司研究院為(wei)主(zhu)(zhu)導的(de)(de)研發體(ti)系(xi),開發出(chu)了吉祥1號、東方(fang)(fang)紅(hong)1號、飛天358、敦(dun)(dun)(dun)玉(yu)(yu)(yu)328、敦(dun)(dun)(dun)玉(yu)(yu)(yu)12、敦(dun)(dun)(dun)玉(yu)(yu)(yu)13、敦(dun)(dun)(dun)玉(yu)(yu)(yu)15、龍213等具(ju)有(you)(you)發展潛力的(de)(de)主(zhu)(zhu)推(tui)(tui)玉(yu)(yu)(yu)米品(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong);而且(qie),隨(sui)著(zhu)綠色(se)通道的(de)(de)落地,公(gong)(gong)司新(xin)(xin)品(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)推(tui)(tui)出(chu)速度加(jia)快,2016 年已(yi)有(you)(you)45個玉(yu)(yu)(yu)米雜交新(xin)(xin)品(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)進(jin)入試驗審定程序。我們(men)認為(wei),種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)業(ye)競爭的(de)(de)核心在于優質新(xin)(xin)品(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)的(de)(de)不(bu)斷推(tui)(tui)出(chu),隨(sui)著(zhu)公(gong)(gong)司新(xin)(xin)產品(pin)的(de)(de)不(bu)斷推(tui)(tui)出(chu),公(gong)(gong)司種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子業(ye)務利潤有(you)(you)望重回增(zeng)長。

　　定(ding)增(zeng)助力公司發展,并購打開(kai)成長空間。

　　2015年(nian)公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)完(wan)成非公(gong)(gong)(gong)開發行(xing)募資(zi)4.65億(yi)元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan),定增價(jia)6元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/股,用于(yu)推進(jin)種子研發和營銷建設(she),有利于(yu)公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)種子業(ye)務的(de)(de)(de)發展(zhan),并(bing)降低公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)的(de)(de)(de)財務費用。2016年(nian)10月(yue),公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)擬與昂巨(ju)資(zi)產合(he)作(zuo)設(she)立農業(ye)產業(ye)并(bing)購基(ji)金(jin)(jin),基(ji)金(jin)(jin)規模暫(zan)定15.03億(yi)元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan),公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)作(zuo)為劣后(hou)出(chu)資(zi)不超過(guo)(guo)2億(yi)元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)。該(gai)農業(ye)基(ji)金(jin)(jin)將成為公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)未來(lai)并(bing)購整合(he)的(de)(de)(de)主(zhu)體。我們認為,在行(xing)業(ye)整合(he)加速推進(jin)的(de)(de)(de)背(bei)景下,并(bing)購是(shi)實現(xian)種業(ye)公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)做大做強的(de)(de)(de)必然(ran)之(zhi)路。公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)未來(lai)有望通過(guo)(guo)農業(ye)基(ji)金(jin)(jin)尋(xun)找(zhao)優質的(de)(de)(de)農業(ye)產業(ye)項目,并(bing)在成熟后(hou)注入(ru)上市公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)體內,實現(xian)公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)的(de)(de)(de)跨越式(shi)發展(zhan)。

　　食品(pin)加工推進產品(pin)結構升級(ji),棉(mian)花產業(ye)實現效(xiao)率優化,疊(die)加棉(mian)花價格上(shang)漲,業(ye)績(ji)有望(wang)改善。

　　食(shi)品(pin)(pin)加(jia)(jia)(jia)工(gong)方面(mian),公司(si)(si)已經(jing)停止(zhi)了(le)深度虧損(sun)的(de)油脂加(jia)(jia)(jia)工(gong)業務(wu)(wu),目前(qian)聚焦于番(fan)茄制品(pin)(pin)和脫水(shui)蔬菜的(de)生(sheng)產和銷售(shou),并積(ji)極推動產品(pin)(pin)結(jie)構(gou)升(sheng)級,開拓海外市場,以(yi)提升(sheng)食(shi)品(pin)(pin)加(jia)(jia)(jia)工(gong)業務(wu)(wu)的(de)利(li)潤水(shui)平,2016年上(shang)半年,公司(si)(si)食(shi)品(pin)(pin)加(jia)(jia)(jia)工(gong)業務(wu)(wu)的(de)毛利(li)率(lv)達到17.01%,較2015年提升(sheng)3個百分點(dian)。棉(mian)(mian)(mian)花(hua)產業來(lai)看(kan),受棉(mian)(mian)(mian)花(hua)價(jia)格下跌影響,公司(si)(si)2015年以(yi)來(lai)暫停了(le)棉(mian)(mian)(mian)花(hua)的(de)收(shou)購和加(jia)(jia)(jia)工(gong)業務(wu)(wu),主要做國(guo)儲(chu)棉(mian)(mian)(mian)的(de)代儲(chu)和管(guan)理。2016年,棉(mian)(mian)(mian)花(hua)價(jia)格觸底(di)回(hui)升(sheng),由上(shang)半年的(de)不足12000元/噸(dun)(dun)漲(zhang)到目前(qian)的(de)近16000元/噸(dun)(dun),2016棉(mian)(mian)(mian)價(jia)回(hui)升(sheng)有(you)望帶動棉(mian)(mian)(mian)花(hua)收(shou)購加(jia)(jia)(jia)工(gong)業務(wu)(wu)盈利(li)回(hui)升(sheng)。整體來(lai)看(kan),公司(si)(si)食(shi)品(pin)(pin)加(jia)(jia)(jia)工(gong)板塊和棉(mian)(mian)(mian)花(hua)板塊都(dou)在(zai)發生(sheng)著積(ji)極的(de)變化,未來(lai)業績有(you)望改善。

　　給予(yu)“增持”評級。公司(si)(si)做大(da)做強種(zhong)業的戰略穩步推進,研發實力和品種(zhong)開發能(neng)力都有(you)(you)大(da)幅提升,有(you)(you)望分享(xiang)種(zhong)業景氣周期(qi)(qi)紅利,此外(wai),公司(si)(si)市值較小(xiao),依托產業基金外(wai)延(yan)并(bing)購(gou)預期(qi)(qi)較強。不考慮(lv)東海證券股權出(chu)售的投(tou)資收益和并(bing)購(gou),預期(qi)(qi)2016-2018年,公司(si)(si)每股收益為(wei)-0.22元、-0.02元和0.04元,給予(yu)“增持”評級。

　　風險(xian)(xian)提示:1.制種(zhong)風險(xian)(xian);2.產業基金(jin)落(luo)地不及預期