[摘要]
事件:公司2016年(nian)營(ying)業(ye)收入、扣(kou)非凈利(li)潤(run)分別約為(wei)13億(yi)(yi)元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)、2.2億(yi)(yi)元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan),同(tong)比增(zeng)長(chang)分別約為(wei)83%、275%;2016Q4營(ying)業(ye)收入、扣(kou)非凈利(li)潤(run)分別約為(wei)4.2億(yi)(yi)元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)、0.65億(yi)(yi)元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan),同(tong)比增(zeng)長(chang)分別約為(wei)117%、515%。同(tong)時預告2017Q1凈利(li)潤(run)約為(wei)8400萬元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)-9200萬元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan),同(tong)比增(zeng)長(chang)約175-201%。
傳(chuan)統(tong)業(ye)務景(jing)氣(qi)度上(shang)升(sheng),并表(biao)因素(su)導(dao)致業(ye)績(ji)高增(zeng)(zeng)長。2016年營業(ye)收(shou)(shou)入(ru)約為13億(yi)元(yuan),同比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長約83%。期間內收(shou)(shou)入(ru)大(da)幅增(zeng)(zeng)長原因如下:1)并表(biao)因素(su)影(ying)響,其中(zhong)子公(gong)司寧(ning)波天衡于2015年5月并表(biao),子公(gong)司只楚(chu)藥業(ye)于2016年6月開始并表(biao),我們估算(suan)并表(biao)因素(su)導(dao)致全年新增(zeng)(zeng)收(shou)(shou)入(ru)約4.5億(yi)元(yuan);2)若剔除(chu)天衡與只楚(chu)在2015-2016年對(dui)公(gong)司收(shou)(shou)入(ru)影(ying)響,估算(suan)傳(chuan)統(tong)主(zhu)業(ye)收(shou)(shou)入(ru)增(zeng)(zeng)速超過(guo)40%,除(chu)原料藥業(ye)務景(jing)氣(qi)度回(hui)升(sheng)外,奧(ao)拉西坦(tan)原料藥受競爭格(ge)局變化(hua)利好也導(dao)致其收(shou)(shou)入(ru)大(da)幅增(zeng)(zeng)長。
2016年扣非凈利(li)潤約(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)為2.2億(yi)(yi)元,同比增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)約(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)275%。期間內(nei)中子公(gong)司寧(ning)波天衡(heng)、只楚藥業分(fen)別約(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)貢(gong)獻0.6億(yi)(yi)元、0.5億(yi)(yi)元,估算傳統主(zhu)業凈利(li)潤增(zeng)(zeng)速或超過300%,主(zhu)要原(yuan)(yuan)因為受到奧拉西坦(tan)原(yuan)(yuan)料藥競(jing)爭格局變(bian)化影響。如(ru)從毛(mao)利(li)率(lv)(lv)及費用(yong)角度看,公(gong)司毛(mao)利(li)率(lv)(lv)約(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)為47%,受到產品(pin)結構變(bian)化提升約(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)3個(ge)百分(fen)點;期間費用(yong)率(lv)(lv)約(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)為26.2%,總(zong)體控制(zhi)較(jiao)好(hao)下(xia)降(jiang)約(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)6個(ge)百分(fen)點。公(gong)司預(yu)(yu)告2017Q1凈利(li)潤約(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)為8400萬元-9200萬元,同比增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)約(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)175-201%,主(zhu)要原(yuan)(yuan)因為期間內(nei)合(he)并范圍(wei)較(jiao)同期增(zeng)(zeng)加。我們判(pan)斷2017年公(gong)司奧拉西坦(tan)原(yuan)(yuan)料藥競(jing)爭格局仍將維持,天衡(heng)及只楚經營(ying)狀(zhuang)況較(jiao)好(hao)將維持較(jiao)快增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang),預(yu)(yu)計2017年凈利(li)潤增(zeng)(zeng)速或超過50%。
原(yuan)料藥(yao)(yao)(yao)業務穩步發(fa)(fa)(fa)展(zhan)(zhan),積(ji)極(ji)推(tui)進專(zhuan)科藥(yao)(yao)(yao)布(bu)局。1)抗感染藥(yao)(yao)(yao)物醫院終(zhong)端占比超過(guo)(guo)20%仍(reng)為最大(da)用藥(yao)(yao)(yao)領(ling)域(yu),公司(si)(si)主要(yao)(yao)產(chan)(chan)品(pin)如頭孢類、慶大(da)霉素等(deng)領(ling)域(yu)具(ju)有質(zhi)量和成本(ben)優勢,且行業生(sheng)產(chan)(chan)工藝(yi)核(he)查(cha)也(ye)將利(li)好公司(si)(si)原(yuan)料藥(yao)(yao)(yao)業務發(fa)(fa)(fa)展(zhan)(zhan),如奧拉(la)西坦(tan)生(sheng)產(chan)(chan)工藝(yi)核(he)查(cha)收回競爭(zheng)者GMP證書對公司(si)(si)業績影響(xiang)明顯,預(yu)計該領(ling)域(yu)在未來(lai)仍(reng)具(ju)有可持續增長潛(qian)力;2)大(da)力發(fa)(fa)(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)制劑業務,積(ji)極(ji)推(tui)進專(zhuan)科藥(yao)(yao)(yao)布(bu)局。公司(si)(si)目前(qian)具(ju)備托(tuo)瑞(rui)米芬、昂丹司(si)(si)瓊等(deng)制劑產(chan)(chan)品(pin),其中(zhong)托(tuo)瑞(rui)米芬為獨(du)家品(pin)種(zhong),主要(yao)(yao)用于乳腺癌的治療,如順(shun)利(li)通過(guo)(guo)一致(zhi)性評價有望享受“量價齊升”市場紅(hong)利(li)。在研發(fa)(fa)(fa)線(xian)中(zhong)儲備了鹽酸奈必洛(luo)爾、托(tuo)伐普坦(tan)片、拉(la)科酰胺(an)片等(deng)重磅品(pin)種(zhong),如能(neng)順(shun)利(li)上市將大(da)幅改善(shan)公司(si)(si)產(chan)(chan)品(pin)線(xian)。
盈(ying)利預測與投資(zi)建議。我們預計(ji)(ji)2017-2019年EPS分別為0.83元、0.96元、1.10元(原(yuan)2017-2018年EPS分別為0.80元、1.07元,調(diao)整(zheng)主要(yao)原(yuan)因是參考了子公司天(tian)衡與只楚(chu)收入(ru)(ru)增速(su)變化(hua)),對應PE為32倍、28倍、24倍。我們仍看好公司傳統主營(ying)業務(wu)景氣(qi)度(du)回升,多個(ge)原(yuan)料藥和制劑產品有望(wang)實現翻倍增長(chang);天(tian)衡與只楚(chu)并表也使公司業績迅速(su)增厚,預計(ji)(ji)未來將進入(ru)(ru)發展快速(su)軌道,維(wei)持“買入(ru)(ru)”評級(ji)。
風險提(ti)示(shi):限抗政(zheng)策、藥品招標降價、并購企業業績實(shi)現或不及承諾等風險。
中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)證(zheng)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)聲(sheng)(sheng)明:凡本(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)注(zhu)明“來源:中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國證(zheng)券(quan)報(bao)(bao)(bao)·中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)證(zheng)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)”的所有作(zuo)品(pin)(pin),版權(quan)均(jun)屬于(yu)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國證(zheng)券(quan)報(bao)(bao)(bao)、中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)證(zheng)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)。中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國證(zheng)券(quan)報(bao)(bao)(bao)·中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)證(zheng)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)與(yu)作(zuo)品(pin)(pin)作(zuo)者(zhe)(zhe)聯(lian)合聲(sheng)(sheng)明,任何組織未經中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國證(zheng)券(quan)報(bao)(bao)(bao)、中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)證(zheng)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)以及作(zuo)者(zhe)(zhe)書(shu)面(mian)授權(quan)不(bu)得轉(zhuan)載、摘編或(huo)利用其(qi)它(ta)方式使用上述作(zuo)品(pin)(pin)。凡本(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)注(zhu)明來源非中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國證(zheng)券(quan)報(bao)(bao)(bao)·中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)證(zheng)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)的作(zuo)品(pin)(pin),均(jun)轉(zhuan)載自其(qi)它(ta)媒體,轉(zhuan)載目的在于(yu)更好服務讀者(zhe)(zhe)、傳遞信息之需,并不(bu)代表本(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)贊同(tong)其(qi)觀點,本(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)亦不(bu)對其(qi)真實性(xing)負責,持異議(yi)者(zhe)(zhe)應與(yu)原出處單(dan)位主(zhu)張權(quan)利。
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中國證券報社版權(quan)所有,未經書面授權(quan)不得復制或建立鏡像
經(jing)營許可證編號:京B2-20180749 京公網安備0-1
Copyright 2001-2018 China Securities Journal. All Rights Reserved