[摘要]
■事件:遼寧成大發布2016年年報,公司(si)(si)2016年全年實現營業收(shou)入87.5億元(yuan)(YoY-4%),實現歸(gui)(gui)母(mu)凈(jing)利(li)潤9.5億元(yuan)(YoY+84%),總資產(chan)達(da)到(dao)332億元(yuan)(YoY+24%),歸(gui)(gui)屬于上市(shi)公司(si)(si)股東凈(jing)資產(chan)達(da)到(dao)185億元(yuan)(YoY+6%),公司(si)(si)歸(gui)(gui)母(mu)凈(jing)利(li)潤同比大幅提升的主要原因為廣發證券貢獻投資收(shou)益達(da)到(dao)13.19億。
■公司利(li)潤(run)主(zhu)要來自于金融(rong)板塊。
(1)廣(guang)(guang)(guang)發(fa)(fa)證(zheng)券利(li)(li)(li)潤貢獻占(zhan)比達到90%。遼寧成大(da)是廣(guang)(guang)(guang)發(fa)(fa)證(zheng)券第三大(da)股(gu)東(持股(gu)占(zhan)比16.42%)。廣(guang)(guang)(guang)發(fa)(fa)證(zheng)券2016年(nian)凈(jing)利(li)(li)(li)潤84億元(yuan),為(wei)公司帶(dai)來(lai)投(tou)資(zi)收益(yi)13億元(yuan),在營業(ye)(ye)利(li)(li)(li)潤中的占(zhan)比92%。2016年(nian)廣(guang)(guang)(guang)發(fa)(fa)證(zheng)券業(ye)(ye)績領(ling)(ling)先(xian)同業(ye)(ye),經紀業(ye)(ye)務(wu)提質,信(xin)用交(jiao)易增量(liang),IPO儲備行(xing)業(ye)(ye)領(ling)(ling)先(xian),債券承銷成長迅速(su),且自營跌(die)幅小于(yu)同業(ye)(ye),盈利(li)(li)(li)能力領(ling)(ling)先(xian),投(tou)行(xing)資(zi)管起支撐作用,具體業(ye)(ye)績點(dian)評請參考我(wo)們此(ci)前的廣(guang)(guang)(guang)發(fa)(fa)證(zheng)券年(nian)報點(dian)評《業(ye)(ye)績領(ling)(ling)先(xian)同業(ye)(ye),股(gu)權結構(gou)分散》。
(2)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)華(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)保險(xian)(xian)(xian)利(li)潤(run)貢獻(xian)逐年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)增大(da)(da)(da)。遼寧(ning)成大(da)(da)(da)通(tong)過收(shou)購參股中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)華(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)保險(xian)(xian)(xian)(持(chi)股占(zhan)比(bi)19.595%),2016年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)華(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)保險(xian)(xian)(xian)實(shi)現(xian)凈(jing)利(li)潤(run)8.5億元,為(wei)(wei)遼寧(ning)成大(da)(da)(da)貢獻(xian)投(tou)資(zi)收(shou)益(yi)達(da)到(dao)2.3億元,在(zai)公(gong)司(si)營(ying)業(ye)(ye)利(li)潤(run)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)占(zhan)比(bi)16%。①中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)華(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)聯(lian)合財(cai)險(xian)(xian)(xian)市場規(gui)模行(xing)業(ye)(ye)前列。中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)華(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)保險(xian)(xian)(xian)以財(cai)險(xian)(xian)(xian)為(wei)(wei)主,2016年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)華(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)財(cai)險(xian)(xian)(xian)實(shi)現(xian)保費收(shou)入(ru)385億元,市場份額達(da)到(dao)4.16%,排名全國(guo)第(di)(di)五。預計2017年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)華(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)聯(lian)合財(cai)險(xian)(xian)(xian)保費收(shou)入(ru)同(tong)比(bi)增增速(su)將(jiang)維持(chi)在(zai)5%以上(shang),隨著財(cai)險(xian)(xian)(xian)業(ye)(ye)務(wu)發展,2017年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)-2018年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)華(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)保險(xian)(xian)(xian)在(zai)公(gong)司(si)的(de)利(li)潤(run)貢獻(xian)將(jiang)達(da)到(dao)4億元左右(you)。②中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)華(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)聯(lian)合人壽(shou)實(shi)現(xian)盈(ying)利(li)。2015年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)11月中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)華(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)聯(lian)合保險(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)子公(gong)司(si)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)華(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)聯(lian)合人壽(shou)獲(huo)批成立。2016年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)全年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)公(gong)司(si)實(shi)現(xian)保險(xian)(xian)(xian)業(ye)(ye)務(wu)收(shou)入(ru)1.25億元,凈(jing)利(li)潤(run)0.05億元(自2016年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)三季度扭虧為(wei)(wei)盈(ying))。③中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)華(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)保險(xian)(xian)(xian)股東(dong)優勢明(ming)顯。中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)華(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)控股第(di)(di)一(yi)大(da)(da)(da)股東(dong)為(wei)(wei)東(dong)方資(zi)產、第(di)(di)二大(da)(da)(da)股東(dong)為(wei)(wei)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)保險(xian)(xian)(xian)保障基金,兩者均(jun)為(wei)(wei)國(guo)有(you)背景,擁有(you)強大(da)(da)(da)的(de)平臺優勢和豐富的(de)資(zi)源,對于(yu)延長中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)華(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)控股的(de)產品線(xian)起到(dao)積極作用。
■多元(yuan)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)務(wu)穩健發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)。①能源開(kai)發(fa)(fa)虧損減(jian)(jian)(jian)少。由于國(guo)(guo)際油價大(da)(da)幅下(xia)跌,公(gong)司油頁巖業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)務(wu)增速趨緩(huan),不過成(cheng)(cheng)大(da)(da)弘(hong)晟(sheng)減(jian)(jian)(jian)值帶來的(de)影(ying)響已基本體現,新疆寶明技術提升取得進展(zhan),2016年(nian)能源開(kai)發(fa)(fa)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)務(wu)實現營(ying)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)收(shou)入5226萬元(yuan),同時稅前利潤(run)虧損同比(bi)減(jian)(jian)(jian)少51%,預計未來業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)績(ji)將逐步改善;②生物制藥業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)績(ji)穩步提升。成(cheng)(cheng)大(da)(da)生物目前已掛牌新三板,2016年(nian)實現營(ying)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)收(shou)入10.3億(yi)元(yuan)(YoY+9.1%,在營(ying)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)收(shou)入中占比(bi)11%)。③商貿流通業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)務(wu)調整(zheng)為未來發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)蓄力(li)。成(cheng)(cheng)大(da)(da)方(fang)圓實現銷售收(shou)入30.7億(yi)元(yuan)(YoY+11%,占比(bi)35%),國(guo)(guo)內(nei)外(wai)貿易實現營(ying)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)收(shou)入45.8億(yi)元(yuan)(YoY-13.6%,占比(bi)52%),是營(ying)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)收(shou)入的(de)主要組(zu)成(cheng)(cheng)部分,此外(wai)公(gong)司處臵(ge)家(jia)樂福股(gu)權進行(xing)產業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)調整(zheng),為下(xia)一(yi)步發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)蓄力(li)。
■用市(shi)值(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)法估(gu)(gu)算(suan)各板塊,公(gong)司(si)價值(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)被明(ming)顯低估(gu)(gu)。A廣(guang)(guang)發(fa)證券:截至2017年3月(yue)30日收(shou)盤(pan),廣(guang)(guang)發(fa)證券總市(shi)值(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)為(wei)1256億(yi)元(yuan)(yuan),遼寧(ning)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)大(da)(da)(da)(da)(da)在(zai)(zai)廣(guang)(guang)發(fa)證券的持(chi)股(gu)占比(bi)(bi)為(wei)16.42%,遼寧(ning)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)大(da)(da)(da)(da)(da)所持(chi)有的廣(guang)(guang)發(fa)證券股(gu)權的賬(zhang)面價值(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)達到(dao)206億(yi)元(yuan)(yuan);B中華(hua)保(bao)險:預(yu)(yu)(yu)計2017年中華(hua)保(bao)險凈(jing)利潤13億(yi)元(yuan)(yuan),對(dui)比(bi)(bi)同(tong)業(ye)給出23倍(bei)(bei)(bei)PE,遼寧(ning)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)大(da)(da)(da)(da)(da)在(zai)(zai)中華(hua)保(bao)險的持(chi)股(gu)占比(bi)(bi)為(wei)19.595%,對(dui)應(ying)(ying)(ying)市(shi)值(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)58.6億(yi)元(yuan)(yuan);C成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)大(da)(da)(da)(da)(da)生物(wu)(wu):截至2017年3月(yue)30日收(shou)盤(pan),成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)大(da)(da)(da)(da)(da)生物(wu)(wu)(831550.OC)總市(shi)值(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)68億(yi)元(yuan)(yuan),遼寧(ning)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)大(da)(da)(da)(da)(da)在(zai)(zai)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)大(da)(da)(da)(da)(da)生物(wu)(wu)的持(chi)股(gu)占比(bi)(bi)為(wei)60.54%,遼寧(ning)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)大(da)(da)(da)(da)(da)持(chi)有成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)大(da)(da)(da)(da)(da)生物(wu)(wu)股(gu)權的賬(zhang)面價值(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)為(wei)41億(yi)元(yuan)(yuan);D成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)大(da)(da)(da)(da)(da)方圓(yuan):預(yu)(yu)(yu)計2017年成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)大(da)(da)(da)(da)(da)方圓(yuan)凈(jing)資產8.5億(yi)元(yuan)(yuan),對(dui)比(bi)(bi)同(tong)業(ye)給出2.5倍(bei)(bei)(bei)PB,遼寧(ning)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)大(da)(da)(da)(da)(da)在(zai)(zai)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)大(da)(da)(da)(da)(da)方圓(yuan)的持(chi)股(gu)占比(bi)(bi)為(wei)100%,對(dui)應(ying)(ying)(ying)市(shi)值(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)21億(yi)元(yuan)(yuan);E新疆(jiang)寶(bao)明(ming):預(yu)(yu)(yu)計2017年新疆(jiang)寶(bao)明(ming)凈(jing)資產16億(yi)元(yuan)(yuan),對(dui)比(bi)(bi)同(tong)業(ye)給出1.1倍(bei)(bei)(bei)PB,遼寧(ning)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)大(da)(da)(da)(da)(da)在(zai)(zai)新疆(jiang)寶(bao)明(ming)的持(chi)股(gu)占比(bi)(bi)為(wei)60.5%,對(dui)應(ying)(ying)(ying)市(shi)值(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)10.6億(yi)元(yuan)(yuan);F貿易方面(測算(suan)值(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)):預(yu)(yu)(yu)計2017年遼寧(ning)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)大(da)(da)(da)(da)(da)貿易方面凈(jing)資產將約為(wei)4.5億(yi)元(yuan)(yuan)(按照(zhao)(zhao)100%持(chi)股(gu)占比(bi)(bi)計),對(dui)比(bi)(bi)同(tong)業(ye)給出2.2倍(bei)(bei)(bei)PB,對(dui)應(ying)(ying)(ying)市(shi)值(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)9.9億(yi)元(yuan)(yuan)。A+B+C+D+E+F合計得到(dao)遼寧(ning)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)大(da)(da)(da)(da)(da)目(mu)標市(shi)值(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)347.8億(yi)元(yuan)(yuan),按照(zhao)(zhao)公(gong)司(si)15.3億(yi)的股(gu)本計算(suan),公(gong)司(si)目(mu)標價為(wei)22.73元(yuan)(yuan)。
■定(ding)(ding)增若過會有望帶來股(gu)(gu)權結構(gou)改善(shan)。2016年8月(yue)10日(ri)公(gong)司(si)(si)公(gong)布(bu)定(ding)(ding)增預案修訂稿,擬向國(guo)資公(gong)司(si)(si)、巨(ju)人(ren)投資、金匯(hui)資管、中歐物(wu)流發(fa)行不超(chao)過3.2億股(gu)(gu),未來定(ding)(ding)增完成(cheng)后將(jiang)引入(ru)巨(ju)人(ren)投資(持(chi)股(gu)(gu)占(zhan)比(bi)(bi)將(jiang)為(wei)7.84%)、金匯(hui)資管(持(chi)股(gu)(gu)占(zhan)比(bi)(bi)將(jiang)為(wei)4.33%)、中歐物(wu)流(持(chi)股(gu)(gu)占(zhan)比(bi)(bi)將(jiang)為(wei)4.33%)以及遼寧(ning)國(guo)資公(gong)司(si)(si)(持(chi)股(gu)(gu)占(zhan)比(bi)(bi)將(jiang)為(wei)4.33%)等新晉股(gu)(gu)東,并維持(chi)成(cheng)大(da)集團(tuan)(持(chi)股(gu)(gu)占(zhan)比(bi)(bi)將(jiang)為(wei)9.18%)控制人(ren)角(jiao)色不變,未來將(jiang)帶來股(gu)(gu)權結構(gou)優化,目前定(ding)(ding)增尚待過會。
■投資建議:買入-A投資評級,6個月目(mu)標價22.73元(yuan)。我們預計(ji)公司2017年-2019年的收入增(zeng)速分別為0.62元(yuan)、0.77元(yuan)、1.03元(yuan)。
■風險提示(shi):股市風險;油(you)價下(xia)跌;定增失敗;保險虧損等。
中(zhong)(zhong)證(zheng)(zheng)網(wang)聲明:凡本網(wang)注(zhu)明“來(lai)源(yuan):中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)證(zheng)(zheng)券(quan)報(bao)(bao)·中(zhong)(zhong)證(zheng)(zheng)網(wang)”的(de)所有作品,版權均屬于中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)證(zheng)(zheng)券(quan)報(bao)(bao)、中(zhong)(zhong)證(zheng)(zheng)網(wang)。中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)證(zheng)(zheng)券(quan)報(bao)(bao)·中(zhong)(zhong)證(zheng)(zheng)網(wang)與作品作者(zhe)(zhe)聯合聲明,任何組織未經中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)證(zheng)(zheng)券(quan)報(bao)(bao)、中(zhong)(zhong)證(zheng)(zheng)網(wang)以及作者(zhe)(zhe)書面(mian)授權不得轉載、摘編或利(li)用其它方式使(shi)用上(shang)述作品。凡本網(wang)注(zhu)明來(lai)源(yuan)非中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)證(zheng)(zheng)券(quan)報(bao)(bao)·中(zhong)(zhong)證(zheng)(zheng)網(wang)的(de)作品,均轉載自其它媒體(ti),轉載目的(de)在(zai)于更(geng)好(hao)服務讀者(zhe)(zhe)、傳遞信息之需,并不代(dai)表本網(wang)贊同其觀點,本網(wang)亦(yi)不對其真實性負責,持異議者(zhe)(zhe)應與原出處(chu)單位主張(zhang)權利(li)。
特別鏈接:政府部門交易機構證券期貨四所兩司新聞發布平臺友情鏈接版權聲明
關于報社關于本站廣告發布免責條款
中國證券報社版權所有,未經書面授權不得復制或建立鏡像 經營許可證編號:京B2-20180749 京公網安備0-1
Copyright 2001-2018 China Securities Journal. All Rights Reserved
中國證(zheng)券報社版權(quan)所(suo)有,未經書面授權(quan)不(bu)得復制或建立鏡像
經(jing)營許可證編號:京(jing)B2-20180749 京(jing)公網安備0-1
Copyright 2001-2018 China Securities Journal. All Rights Reserved