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蘇寧云商:拐點確立 買入評級

作者:來源:中泰證券2017-09-04 08:04

  [摘要]

  投(tou)資要點事件:2017H1公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)實現營(ying)業收(shou)入837.46億(yi)元,同(tong)比+21.87%,歸(gui)屬(shu)(shu)于母公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)凈利(li)潤為2.91億(yi)元,同(tong)比+340.53%;歸(gui)屬(shu)(shu)于上(shang)(shang)市公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)股東(dong)扣(kou)非(fei)凈利(li)潤為-1.96億(yi)元;不考慮扣(kou)除運營(ying)資金收(shou)益,歸(gui)屬(shu)(shu)于上(shang)(shang)市公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)股東(dong)的(de)(de)扣(kou)除非(fei)經(jing)常性損益的(de)(de)凈利(li)潤為1.29億(yi)元,同(tong)比+119.85%。公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)預計(ji)三季度公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)將實現歸(gui)屬(shu)(shu)于上(shang)(shang)市公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)股東(dong)的(de)(de)凈利(li)潤3.00-4.00億(yi)元。則2017年1-9月歸(gui)屬(shu)(shu)于上(shang)(shang)市公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)股東(dong)的(de)(de)凈利(li)潤預計(ji)為5.91-6.91億(yi)元,超(chao)出市場預期。

  線(xian)(xian)(xian)下(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia):同(tong)(tong)(tong)店(dian)(dian)(dian)增(zeng)(zeng)長4.54%+,凈利(li)潤率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)水平約(yue)4-5%,費(fei)(fei)(fei)用(yong)(yong)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)基本與(yu)去年(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)保持持平,但毛利(li)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)略(lve)有(you)提(ti)(ti)升(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)。2017H1公(gong)司可比(bi)店(dian)(dian)(dian)面(mian)(mian)(指2016年(nian)1月1日(ri)及之前開設的(de)云(yun)店(dian)(dian)(dian)、常規(gui)店(dian)(dian)(dian)和縣鎮店(dian)(dian)(dian))銷(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)售(shou)收(shou)入(ru)同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長4.54%;二季度(du)公(gong)司緊抓促銷(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)旺季銷(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)售(shou),可比(bi)店(dian)(dian)(dian)面(mian)(mian)銷(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)售(shou)收(shou)入(ru)同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)+5.54%。蘇寧易購服(fu)務(wu)站直營(ying)店(dian)(dian)(dian)經營(ying)日(ri)趨(qu)成(cheng)熟,效(xiao)益逐步體(ti)(ti)(ti)現,H1可比(bi)店(dian)(dian)(dian)面(mian)(mian)銷(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)售(shou)收(shou)入(ru)同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長33.51%。其中(zhong)具體(ti)(ti)(ti)業態,云(yun)店(dian)(dian)(dian)門店(dian)(dian)(dian)銷(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)售(shou)同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)6.4%+,旗艦店(dian)(dian)(dian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)3.3%+,中(zhong)心店(dian)(dian)(dian)3.36%+,社區店(dian)(dian)(dian)3.73%+,縣鎮店(dian)(dian)(dian)5.43%+。H1線(xian)(xian)(xian)下(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)實現營(ying)業收(shou)入(ru)為(wei)423.81億元,同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)-1.67%,其中(zhong)Q2單季度(du)實現營(ying)業收(shou)入(ru)同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長+1.75%,整(zheng)(zheng)體(ti)(ti)(ti)廚電以及大家電銷(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)售(shou)向(xiang)好帶動同(tong)(tong)(tong)店(dian)(dian)(dian)增(zeng)(zeng)長,且線(xian)(xian)(xian)上沖擊線(xian)(xian)(xian)下(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)的(de)整(zheng)(zheng)體(ti)(ti)(ti)力度(du)在放緩。毛利(li)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)方(fang)面(mian)(mian),略(lve)有(you)提(ti)(ti)升(sheng)(sheng)(sheng),預(yu)計(ji)線(xian)(xian)(xian)下(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)毛利(li)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)為(wei)18-19%,線(xian)(xian)(xian)下(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)費(fei)(fei)(fei)用(yong)(yong)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)方(fang)面(mian)(mian),租金費(fei)(fei)(fei)用(yong)(yong)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)為(wei)6.72%(銷(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)售(shou)費(fei)(fei)(fei)用(yong)(yong)項目中(zhong)租賃費(fei)(fei)(fei)用(yong)(yong)/線(xian)(xian)(xian)下(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)營(ying)業收(shou)入(ru)),相較于去年(nian)提(ti)(ti)升(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)約(yue)0.15個(ge)百分(fen)點。整(zheng)(zheng)體(ti)(ti)(ti)人員費(fei)(fei)(fei)用(yong)(yong)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)水平4.66%(薪酬/線(xian)(xian)(xian)下(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)營(ying)業收(shou)入(ru)),整(zheng)(zheng)體(ti)(ti)(ti)薪酬費(fei)(fei)(fei)用(yong)(yong)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)水平相較去年(nian)提(ti)(ti)升(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)約(yue)與(yu)去年(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)保持0.52%,考慮(lv)部分(fen)薪酬費(fei)(fei)(fei)用(yong)(yong)屬于線(xian)(xian)(xian)上,我們(men)認為(wei)整(zheng)(zheng)體(ti)(ti)(ti)線(xian)(xian)(xian)下(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)費(fei)(fei)(fei)用(yong)(yong)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)水平基本保持持平,線(xian)(xian)(xian)下(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)的(de)整(zheng)(zheng)體(ti)(ti)(ti)盈(ying)利(li)能力隨著規(gui)模(mo)提(ti)(ti)升(sheng)(sheng)(sheng),毛利(li)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)提(ti)(ti)高以及費(fei)(fei)(fei)用(yong)(yong)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)下(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)降(jiang)而逐步提(ti)(ti)升(sheng)(sheng)(sheng),預(yu)計(ji)線(xian)(xian)(xian)下(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)的(de)凈利(li)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)水平達到4-5%,恢(hui)復到歷史(shi)最(zui)高水平。

  線(xian)(xian)(xian)上(shang)(shang)(shang):雙線(xian)(xian)(xian)模(mo)式的(de)效應在(zai)提升,自(zi)營(ying)(ying)GMV增速61.00%+,運輸費(fei)用(yong)率(lv)(lv)(lv)相(xiang)(xiang)較(jiao)(jiao)去(qu)年同(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)下降(jiang),引(yin)流規模(mo)效應在(zai)提升,整體費(fei)用(yong)率(lv)(lv)(lv)水平(ping)下降(jiang)。報告(gao)期(qi)(qi)內公(gong)司(si)線(xian)(xian)(xian)上(shang)(shang)(shang)平(ping)臺實(shi)體商品(pin)交易總(zong)規模(mo)為(wei)(wei)500.39億(yi)元(yuan)(含(han)稅(shui)),同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)+52.76%,其中(zhong)線(xian)(xian)(xian)上(shang)(shang)(shang)平(ping)臺自(zi)營(ying)(ying)商品(pin)銷售收入(ru)413.65億(yi)元(yuan)(含(han)稅(shui)),同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)增長61.39%,Q2單季(ji)度開(kai)放平(ping)臺商品(pin)交易規模(mo)為(wei)(wei)86.74億(yi)元(yuan)(含(han)稅(shui))。線(xian)(xian)(xian)上(shang)(shang)(shang)持(chi)續收窄在(zai)持(chi)續確認,線(xian)(xian)(xian)上(shang)(shang)(shang)毛利率(lv)(lv)(lv)基本保持(chi)穩(wen)定,預(yu)計在(zai)6-7%,而線(xian)(xian)(xian)上(shang)(shang)(shang)的(de)主要費(fei)用(yong)率(lv)(lv)(lv)為(wei)(wei)引(yin)流成本以及物(wu)流成本,引(yin)流成本方面,H1上(shang)(shang)(shang)半(ban)年廣(guang)(guang)告(gao)以及市場(chang)推(tui)廣(guang)(guang)費(fei)用(yong)率(lv)(lv)(lv)為(wei)(wei)(廣(guang)(guang)告(gao)費(fei)及市場(chang)推(tui)廣(guang)(guang)費(fei)/線(xian)(xian)(xian)上(shang)(shang)(shang)自(zi)營(ying)(ying)收入(ru))4.16%,相(xiang)(xiang)較(jiao)(jiao)去(qu)去(qu)年同(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)下降(jiang)約0.67%;運輸費(fei)用(yong)方面,公(gong)司(si)上(shang)(shang)(shang)半(ban)年運輸費(fei)用(yong)/線(xian)(xian)(xian)上(shang)(shang)(shang)自(zi)營(ying)(ying)收入(ru)為(wei)(wei)2.5%,相(xiang)(xiang)較(jiao)(jiao)去(qu)年下降(jiang)0.77個百分點,我們(men)假設自(zi)有倉儲折舊費(fei)用(yong)全年為(wei)(wei)5億(yi)元(yuan),半(ban)年度約為(wei)(wei)2.5億(yi)元(yuan),倉儲以及運輸費(fei)用(yong)率(lv)(lv)(lv)約為(wei)(wei)4.16%,相(xiang)(xiang)較(jiao)(jiao)去(qu)年同(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)下降(jiang)約為(wei)(wei)0.67%,且趨勢在(zai)下降(jiang);橫向(xiang)對比(bi)(bi)京(jing)東履單費(fei)用(yong)率(lv)(lv)(lv),2016年為(wei)(wei)6.85%,蘇(su)寧線(xian)(xian)(xian)下優勢門(men)店資源以及倉儲拉低(di)線(xian)(xian)(xian)上(shang)(shang)(shang)費(fei)用(yong)率(lv)(lv)(lv)的(de)效應在(zai)提升,全渠道融合的(de)優勢在(zai)彰顯。


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