事件:公司(si)發布2017年(nian)(nian)半年(nian)(nian)報(bao),實現(xian)營收8.68億元(yuan),同比(bi)增(zeng)長5.14%;實現(xian)歸(gui)母凈(jing)利潤1.54萬元(yuan),同比(bi)增(zeng)長9.77%。

　　投資要點:

　　高基(ji)數(shu)(shu)基(ji)礎上(shang)內生保(bao)持穩健增(zeng)(zeng)長,下半(ban)(ban)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)有(you)望(wang)加速。公(gong)(gong)司去(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)上(shang)半(ban)(ban)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)收(shou)入和(he)(he)利(li)潤分(fen)別增(zeng)(zeng)長67.5%和(he)(he)274%,在(zai)(zai)(zai)高基(ji)數(shu)(shu)基(ji)礎上(shang)今年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)中(zhong)(zhong)報(bao)內生仍實現增(zeng)(zeng)長。其(qi)中(zhong)(zhong)傳統核心(xin)業(ye)務(wu)智(zhi)(zhi)能(neng)(neng)會(hui)(hui)議營(ying)收(shou)2.45億元,同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長35.22%,除了去(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)部分(fen)項目順延至(zhi)(zhi)今年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)上(shang)半(ban)(ban)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)的(de)因素外,更重(zhong)要(yao)的(de)公(gong)(gong)司自主(zhu)研發可控的(de)智(zhi)(zhi)能(neng)(neng)會(hui)(hui)議產品在(zai)(zai)(zai)軍隊和(he)(he)政府客戶中(zhong)(zhong)銷量不(bu)斷(duan)提高,并且在(zai)(zai)(zai)規模(mo)大(da)(da)(da)幅增(zeng)(zeng)長的(de)情況下,毛利(li)率(lv)(lv)由(you)去(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)期40.13%提升至(zhi)(zhi)43.68%,體現出(chu)公(gong)(gong)司的(de)智(zhi)(zhi)能(neng)(neng)會(hui)(hui)議產品的(de)競爭優勢(shi)進(jin)一步擴大(da)(da)(da)。智(zhi)(zhi)慧城市營(ying)收(shou)4.72億元,同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)下降(jiang)(jiang)1.50%,盡管確認收(shou)入有(you)所(suo)微降(jiang)(jiang),但上(shang)半(ban)(ban)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)的(de)合同(tong)(tong)訂(ding)單依(yi)然保(bao)持增(zeng)(zeng)加的(de)態(tai)勢(shi)。在(zai)(zai)(zai)線教育營(ying)收(shou)1824.35萬元,同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)下降(jiang)(jiang)33.47%,毛利(li)率(lv)(lv)下降(jiang)(jiang)13.78%,該(gai)板塊業(ye)務(wu)下降(jiang)(jiang)幅度比(bi)(bi)較大(da)(da)(da),主(zhu)要(yao)由(you)于上(shang)半(ban)(ban)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)投入還(huan)未確認收(shou)入,我們預計(ji)全(quan)(quan)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)增(zeng)(zeng)速不(bu)低于30%。大(da)(da)(da)數(shu)(shu)據上(shang)半(ban)(ban)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)營(ying)收(shou)1.17億元,同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長0.30%,毛利(li)率(lv)(lv)下降(jiang)(jiang)4.33%,大(da)(da)(da)數(shu)(shu)據是(shi)公(gong)(gong)司未來發展的(de)核心(xin)戰略,目前在(zai)(zai)(zai)精準營(ying)銷、輿(yu)情、信用三個(ge)領域已形成(cheng)較為清晰的(de)模(mo)式(shi),預計(ji)全(quan)(quan)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)增(zeng)(zeng)速超過50%。

　　營業利(li)潤(run)同(tong)(tong)比(bi)增長23.1%,現金(jin)流改善。上半(ban)年(nian)公司(si)營業成(cheng)本(ben)、銷(xiao)售(shou)費(fei)(fei)用、管理費(fei)(fei)用、財(cai)務費(fei)(fei)用分(fen)別同(tong)(tong)比(bi)變動8.57%、-5.38%、-6.16%、-116.81%,其(qi)中(zhong)財(cai)務費(fei)(fei)用下降明顯主要(yao)由于(yu)(yu)利(li)息支(zhi)出(chu)比(bi)同(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)減少近1200萬元以及定期(qi)(qi)存款(kuan)導致利(li)息收(shou)入增長近500萬。公司(si)上半(ban)年(nian)營業利(li)潤(run)同(tong)(tong)比(bi)增長23.14%,在營收(shou)同(tong)(tong)比(bi)增長5.14%的情況下,三費(fei)(fei)控制明顯。公司(si)經(jing)營現金(jin)流量凈(jing)額(e)-3260萬,去年(nian)同(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)-1.72億(yi),從2016四季度以來,現金(jin)流情況持續變好。2017中(zhong)報(bao)毛利(li)率(lv)40.58%,低于(yu)(yu)去年(nian)同(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)的42.46%,我們估計主要(yao)是智慧城市部分(fen)業務波動的影(ying)響。

　　大(da)數(shu)(shu)(shu)據將(jiang)(jiang)是未(wei)來公司(si)長期發(fa)(fa)展的(de)核心戰略,有望(wang)衍生多(duo)種商業(ye)模式(shi)。未(wei)來公司(si)將(jiang)(jiang)以大(da)數(shu)(shu)(shu)據業(ye)務為(wei)核心,智能會(hui)議、智慧城市(shi)、在(zai)(zai)線教育作(zuo)為(wei)大(da)數(shu)(shu)(shu)據應用(yong)拓展方(fang)向和(he)數(shu)(shu)(shu)據渠道。目(mu)前(qian),公司(si)在(zai)(zai)精(jing)準營銷(xiao)、信(xin)(xin)(xin)用(yong)、輿情(qing)三個(ge)領域已(yi)形成較清(qing)晰的(de)發(fa)(fa)展模式(shi),1、精(jing)準營銷(xiao):與南航(hang)合作(zuo)已(yi)形成較穩定的(de)分(fen)成收費模式(shi),后續將(jiang)(jiang)以此(ci)為(wei)標桿進(jin)一(yi)步(bu)推廣至更(geng)多(duo)客(ke)戶;2、信(xin)(xin)(xin)用(yong):此(ci)前(qian)與發(fa)(fa)改委合作(zuo)建(jian)立(li)省一(yi)級信(xin)(xin)(xin)用(yong)平(ping)臺,目(mu)前(qian)處于(yu)匯集數(shu)(shu)(shu)據池,實現數(shu)(shu)(shu)據共享(xiang)的(de)階段,標桿項目(mu)比如西(xi)藏自治區信(xin)(xin)(xin)用(yong)體系平(ping)臺建(jian)設(she)等,未(wei)來信(xin)(xin)(xin)用(yong)平(ping)臺有望(wang)衍生出多(duo)種非項目(mu)型商業(ye)模式(shi)。3、輿情(qing):公司(si)與新華社合作(zuo)致(zhi)力于(yu)輿情(qing)分(fen)析,極大(da)豐(feng)富公司(si)互(hu)聯網行為(wei)數(shu)(shu)(shu)據,為(wei)后續開展大(da)數(shu)(shu)(shu)據業(ye)務奠定良(liang)好基礎。

　　估值與投資建議:預計(ji)公司2017-2019年凈利潤(run)分別(bie)為6.04、7.71、10.17億(yi)元,EPS分別(bie)為0.42、0.54和0.71元,當前(qian)股價對應PE分別(bie)為20/16/12倍(bei),維(wei)持(chi)“買入”評級(ji)。

　　風險(xian)提(ti)示:智能會(hui)議業務增(zeng)長持續性(xing)不及(ji)預期;大數據等創新(xin)業務進展緩慢。