石化(hua)(hua)化(hua)(hua)工(gong)行業回暖(nuan),化(hua)(hua)工(gong)龍頭技術優勢顯著(zhu)。

　　化(hua)(hua)(hua)工(gong)行(xing)業(ye)(ye)投(tou)資(zi)受下游化(hua)(hua)(hua)工(gong)產品景(jing)氣(qi)度影響。隨著(zhu)(zhu)環保督察常態化(hua)(hua)(hua),化(hua)(hua)(hua)工(gong)行(xing)業(ye)(ye)價格(ge)持續(xu)上(shang)漲,疊加小(xiao)產能(neng)出清集中度提升,行(xing)業(ye)(ye)對優(you)質產能(neng)需求迫切,對化(hua)(hua)(hua)工(gong)投(tou)資(zi)有(you)正(zheng)面影響。2016年(nian)來,現代煤(mei)(mei)化(hua)(hua)(hua)工(gong)示范規劃落地(di),推(tui)進煤(mei)(mei)化(hua)(hua)(hua)工(gong)健康有(you)序發展,煤(mei)(mei)化(hua)(hua)(hua)工(gong)戰略地(di)位支撐煤(mei)(mei)化(hua)(hua)(hua)工(gong)行(xing)業(ye)(ye)。公司作(zuo)為化(hua)(hua)(hua)學工(gong)程行(xing)業(ye)(ye)龍(long)頭,營收在該市(shi)場穩居(ju)第一(yi),擁有(you)強(qiang)大的研發實力和豐富(fu)設計資(zi)質和經驗,技術優(you)勢顯著(zhu)(zhu)。

　　一帶一路(lu)政(zheng)策推進,海(hai)外訂(ding)單快速增長。

　　隨(sui)著一帶(dai)一路政策推進(jin),海(hai)外(wai)化(hua)(hua)(hua)工工程承包工程市(shi)(shi)場(chang)空間廣闊。中(zhong)國化(hua)(hua)(hua)學(xue)作為海(hai)外(wai)化(hua)(hua)(hua)工巨(ju)頭,除鞏固沙特、印(yin)尼、越(yue)南、土耳其(qi)等國家市(shi)(shi)場(chang)地位(wei)外(wai),加快(kuai)海(hai)外(wai)布局(ju),拓展(zhan)海(hai)外(wai)市(shi)(shi)場(chang)。公(gong)司(si)2016年(nian)(nian)新簽訂(ding)單(dan)(dan)快(kuai)速(su)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang),訂(ding)單(dan)(dan)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)實現2012年(nian)(nian)來的(de)首次轉(zhuan)正(zheng)。其(qi)中(zhong)海(hai)外(wai)訂(ding)單(dan)(dan)貢獻巨(ju)大,2016年(nian)(nian)新簽海(hai)外(wai)訂(ding)單(dan)(dan)同(tong)比增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)87.7%,2017年(nian)(nian)H1同(tong)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)120.8%,增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)居八大建筑央企之首。

　　著力布局(ju)環保業務,基建公司(si)分享PPP盛宴。

　　“十三五”期間,公(gong)司(si)著力(li)多元化(hua)布局,2016年新(xin)簽(qian)非化(hua)工(gong)合同額為33.74%,已初步取(qu)得(de)成效。在(zai)政策向(xiang)生態環(huan)(huan)保傾斜大背景下,公(gong)司(si)積極(ji)打造(zao)綠色環(huan)(huan)保新(xin)增(zeng)長點,聯(lian)合設立(li)中化(hua)工(gong)程集(ji)團環(huan)(huan)保有限公(gong)司(si),從(cong)事(shi)環(huan)(huan)保業(ye)務(wu),發揮公(gong)司(si)化(hua)工(gong)業(ye)在(zai)環(huan)(huan)保的技(ji)術優勢。公(gong)司(si)乘PPP政策春風,大力(li)跟進PPP項(xiang)目,設立(li)基礎設施公(gong)司(si),實(shi)現專業(ye)化(hua)運作PPP項(xiang)目,2017年新(xin)簽(qian)8.08億南京城市(shi)生態濕地(di)公(gong)園PPP大單。

　　公(gong)司營收轉(zhuan)正拐點確認,建筑(zhu)央企(qi)國改釋(shi)放估值。

　　2017年H1公(gong)(gong)司(si)實現營收同增2.19%,歸母(mu)凈利(li)潤同增0.49%,結束下(xia)滑(hua)趨勢。公(gong)(gong)司(si)業績拐點(dian)得到(dao)確認,充足(zu)的在手訂(ding)單有(you)望(wang)保障業績持續向好。我們預計公(gong)(gong)司(si)PTA項目(mu)會產(chan)生3億(yi)左(zuo)右(you)的折(zhe)舊(jiu)費用,出現之前(qian)(qian)大幅計提的情形不大。隨著國改(gai)(gai)推進(jin)加速,我們認為公(gong)(gong)司(si)推進(jin)改(gai)(gai)革有(you)助于(yu)公(gong)(gong)司(si)改(gai)(gai)善盈利(li),提升估值(zhi)。目(mu)前(qian)(qian)公(gong)(gong)司(si)PB為1.3,PE為16倍,均(jun)處于(yu)行業較低水(shui)平。

　　投資建議。

　　公(gong)司(si)作為化工(gong)(gong)建(jian)設(she)龍頭,有(you)望(wang)受(shou)益于(yu)化工(gong)(gong)市(shi)場(chang)景氣度提升,同時公(gong)司(si)積(ji)極布局海(hai)(hai)外(wai)市(shi)場(chang),海(hai)(hai)外(wai)訂(ding)單增長(chang)迅猛。公(gong)司(si)著力改善業務結構,布局環保和(he)PPP業務,分享國(guo)(guo)內市(shi)場(chang)盛宴,已獲(huo)初步(bu)成效。2017上半年(nian)公(gong)司(si)已經(jing)實現營(ying)收(shou)和(he)凈利潤增速轉正,隨著充(chong)足的在(zai)手(shou)訂(ding)單執行以及國(guo)(guo)改推進,預計(ji)公(gong)司(si)的業績持續向好。綜上所述(shu),公(gong)司(si)經(jing)營(ying)情況良好,維(wei)持“買(mai)入”評級。預計(ji)2017-2019年(nian)EPS為0.47、0.56、0.63元/股,對應PE為16、13、12倍。

　　風險提示:海外項(xiang)目政治(zhi)風險,匯率風險,PPP項(xiang)目落地不(bu)及(ji)預期