談(tan)到現(xian)金(jin)(jin)分紅(hong)(hong)(hong),每年市(shi)場(chang)都會有(you)(you)(you)(you)聲音呼吁上市(shi)公(gong)(gong)司多分紅(hong)(hong)(hong),增(zeng)加(jia)投(tou)資者回報。如果(guo)把時間(jian)(jian)維度拉長一(yi)(yi)些(xie),5年前甚至10年前對現(xian)金(jin)(jin)分紅(hong)(hong)(hong)的討論比現(xian)在(zai)熱烈得多。10多年間(jian)(jian),監(jian)管(guan)層先(xian)后出(chu)臺了一(yi)(yi)些(xie)引導(dao)和鼓勵分紅(hong)(hong)(hong)的政策。這(zhe)些(xie)工作“潤物(wu)細(xi)無聲”,今天來看(kan),境內市(shi)場(chang)上市(shi)公(gong)(gong)司分紅(hong)(hong)(hong)狀況已大有(you)(you)(you)(you)改(gai)觀(guan)。但隱約之間(jian)(jian),分紅(hong)(hong)(hong)的現(xian)狀好像還有(you)(you)(you)(you)點不(bu)盡如人意。分紅(hong)(hong)(hong)公(gong)(gong)司家數和金(jin)(jin)額都不(bu)少,投(tou)資者卻不(bu)是那么有(you)(you)(you)(you)感(gan)覺,高(gao)分紅(hong)(hong)(hong)公(gong)(gong)司得到的市(shi)場(chang)認(ren)可(ke)也(ye)比較有(you)(you)(you)(you)限。在(zai)注(zhu)冊制深入推進、市(shi)場(chang)正在(zai)發生(sheng)深刻變化的時點上,也(ye)許(xu)可(ke)以再(zai)盤(pan)點、再(zai)出(chu)發,來看(kan)看(kan)這(zhe)些(xie)年分紅(hong)(hong)(hong)發生(sheng)了哪些(xie)變化,還有(you)(you)(you)(you)哪些(xie)問題需要解決?
面上(shang)來(lai)(lai)看,上(shang)市公(gong)司(si)分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)紅金(jin)額(e)連(lian)年(nian)累增,兩(liang)市合(he)計分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)紅總額(e)從(cong)10年(nian)前的(de)(de)(de)3800多億元增長(chang)(chang)至(zhi)2019年(nian)的(de)(de)(de)1.36萬億元。這其中,滬(hu)市主(zhu)板(ban)公(gong)司(si)歷來(lai)(lai)是分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)紅的(de)(de)(de)主(zhu)力,占(zhan)比在八(ba)成(cheng)左右,2019年(nian)即分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)紅近1.07萬億元。比例(li)上(shang)看,滬(hu)市公(gong)司(si)整體分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)紅比例(li)已(yi)長(chang)(chang)年(nian)穩定(ding)在30%以(yi)上(shang)。具體分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)布上(shang),實施分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)紅的(de)(de)(de)公(gong)司(si)占(zhan)比從(cong)10年(nian)前的(de)(de)(de)約50%增長(chang)(chang)至(zhi)今天的(de)(de)(de)70%以(yi)上(shang),其中分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)紅比例(li)超(chao)過(guo)30%的(de)(de)(de)公(gong)司(si)也由(you)當年(nian)的(de)(de)(de)50%左右增長(chang)(chang)到超(chao)過(guo)70%。這些變化充分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)體現出(chu),滬(hu)市公(gong)司(si)的(de)(de)(de)分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)紅意愿和分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)紅能力大(da)大(da)增強。
分紅(hong)(hong)(hong)公(gong)司(si)的結構也值得一看。金融(rong)業(ye)歷來被認為是(shi)分紅(hong)(hong)(hong)大(da)(da)戶(hu),但實(shi)體(ti)經(jing)濟也表現不(bu)俗。還(huan)拿滬(hu)市(shi)主板2019年的數據看,金融(rong)類公(gong)司(si)分紅(hong)(hong)(hong)5795億元,實(shi)體(ti)企業(ye)分紅(hong)(hong)(hong)也高達4855億元。大(da)(da)市(shi)值公(gong)司(si)是(shi)分紅(hong)(hong)(hong)主力,上(shang)證50、上(shang)證180公(gong)司(si)的分紅(hong)(hong)(hong)金額(e)屢(lv)創新高;中小市(shi)值公(gong)司(si)整體(ti)盈利規(gui)模不(bu)大(da)(da),但分紅(hong)(hong)(hong)的熱(re)情也未(wei)示弱,百億元市(shi)值以下的公(gong)司(si)整體(ti)分紅(hong)(hong)(hong)比(bi)例(li)達到35%。這些變化(hua)的背(bei)后(hou),是(shi)滬(hu)市(shi)已經(jing)涌現出一批長期穩定分紅(hong)(hong)(hong)的優質企業(ye)。近3年連續(xu)分紅(hong)(hong)(hong)率(lv)超(chao)30%的公(gong)司(si)有574家(jia)(jia),超(chao)50%的有95家(jia)(jia),有23家(jia)(jia)公(gong)司(si)連續(xu)3年的分紅(hong)(hong)(hong)總(zong)額(e)都在50億元以上(shang)。
按(an)說,這(zhe)些(xie)(xie)長期(qi)穩定分紅(hong)的(de)公(gong)司(si)(si)(si)該是市(shi)場(chang)追捧的(de)寵(chong)兒、長期(qi)資(zi)金價(jia)值投(tou)資(zi)的(de)重點標的(de)。但(dan)從(cong)實(shi)際情(qing)況(kuang)看(kan)(kan),好(hao)像只說對了一(yi)半(ban)。這(zhe)些(xie)(xie)公(gong)司(si)(si)(si)的(de)機構投(tou)資(zi)者持(chi)股比例確實(shi)比較高,但(dan)估(gu)值水平(ping)還是總體偏低,甚至有(you)(you)些(xie)(xie)公(gong)司(si)(si)(si)股價(jia)經常低于凈資(zi)產。跟那些(xie)(xie)網紅(hong)股、概念股一(yi)比,就更(geng)不好(hao)看(kan)(kan)了。這(zhe)背后到底原因何(he)在(zai)?還得追本溯(su)源,看(kan)(kan)看(kan)(kan)現有(you)(you)的(de)分紅(hong)能(neng)給(gei)投(tou)資(zi)者和上市(shi)公(gong)司(si)(si)(si)帶來什么。
第一個(ge)(ge)問題,分(fen)(fen)紅(hong)(hong)(hong)能(neng)給投資(zi)者帶來什么(me)(me)?我(wo)們(men)都(dou)知道,分(fen)(fen)紅(hong)(hong)(hong)是(shi)對投資(zi)者的(de)回(hui)(hui)報(bao)。但(dan)實際(ji)上(shang),投資(zi)者在考(kao)慮自(zi)己的(de)投資(zi)回(hui)(hui)報(bao)時,是(shi)要(yao)掙(zheng)(zheng)短期的(de)股(gu)票差價(jia)(jia)還(huan)是(shi)追(zhui)求長期回(hui)(hui)報(bao),就(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)是(shi)一個(ge)(ge)很糾結的(de)問題。在我(wo)們(men)的(de)市場(chang)上(shang),有(you)不(bu)(bu)少(shao)投資(zi)者本(ben)身(shen)就(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)只(zhi)想掙(zheng)(zheng)大錢(qian)(qian)(qian)、掙(zheng)(zheng)快(kuai)錢(qian)(qian)(qian),而對分(fen)(fen)紅(hong)(hong)(hong)不(bu)(bu)太(tai)感(gan)冒,他們(men)更(geng)希望股(gu)價(jia)(jia)能(neng)快(kuai)速上(shang)漲。要(yao)是(shi)投資(zi)者本(ben)身(shen)也不(bu)(bu)需要(yao)分(fen)(fen)紅(hong)(hong)(hong),那(nei)(nei)分(fen)(fen)紅(hong)(hong)(hong)這(zhe)件(jian)事也就(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)明珠暗投了(le)。解決這(zhe)個(ge)(ge)問題,根本(ben)上(shang)還(huan)得靠(kao)(kao)市場(chang)估值體系(xi)的(de)均衡。當公司的(de)股(gu)票價(jia)(jia)格更(geng)多地回(hui)(hui)歸到它的(de)實際(ji)價(jia)(jia)值,那(nei)(nei)些虛有(you)其表的(de)“噱(xue)頭(tou)”就(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)興(xing)不(bu)(bu)起多少(shao)風浪,掙(zheng)(zheng)短錢(qian)(qian)(qian)、掙(zheng)(zheng)快(kuai)錢(qian)(qian)(qian)也不(bu)(bu)那(nei)(nei)么(me)(me)容(rong)易,投資(zi)者可能(neng)就(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)會回(hui)(hui)過頭(tou)來覺得分(fen)(fen)紅(hong)(hong)(hong)更(geng)加可靠(kao)(kao)了(le)。那(nei)(nei)些沒什么(me)(me)分(fen)(fen)紅(hong)(hong)(hong),靠(kao)(kao)著概(gai)念引得股(gu)價(jia)(jia)上(shang)躥下跳的(de)公司,其追(zhui)捧者自(zi)然也就(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)慢慢變少(shao)了(le)。
另(ling)外,對(dui)投(tou)資(zi)者來說,現(xian)(xian)金分紅(hong)(hong)獲(huo)得(de)感不強,也還(huan)有(you)(you)一(yi)(yi)些制(zhi)度的(de)(de)(de)(de)原因,一(yi)(yi)個(ge)是(shi)(shi)(shi)分紅(hong)(hong)所得(de)稅(shui),還(huan)有(you)(you)一(yi)(yi)個(ge)是(shi)(shi)(shi)交(jiao)易(yi)機制(zhi)上的(de)(de)(de)(de)分紅(hong)(hong)除(chu)息(xi)。稅(shui)收這(zhe)個(ge)問(wen)題上,按持股(gu)(gu)期限(xian)不同已經有(you)(you)一(yi)(yi)些優(you)惠(hui)安排。大體上,持股(gu)(gu)1年以內還(huan)得(de)按一(yi)(yi)定比例交(jiao)稅(shui);持股(gu)(gu)1年以上的(de)(de)(de)(de),可以免除(chu)20%的(de)(de)(de)(de)紅(hong)(hong)利所得(de)稅(shui)。但這(zhe)與股(gu)(gu)票交(jiao)易(yi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)價(jia)差利得(de)無需交(jiao)稅(shui)相比較,其吸引(yin)力還(huan)是(shi)(shi)(shi)打了折扣。影(ying)響(xiang)更大的(de)(de)(de)(de)是(shi)(shi)(shi)除(chu)息(xi),投(tou)資(zi)者常(chang)常(chang)會抱怨,公(gong)司分紅(hong)(hong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)時(shi)候,雖(sui)然賬戶(hu)上獲(huo)得(de)了一(yi)(yi)筆分紅(hong)(hong)現(xian)(xian)金,但股(gu)(gu)價(jia)除(chu)息(xi)后,實際等于左(zuo)口袋進,右口袋出(chu)。打個(ge)比方,一(yi)(yi)家公(gong)司每股(gu)(gu)分了1元(yuan)(yuan),股(gu)(gu)價(jia)是(shi)(shi)(shi)10元(yuan)(yuan),原本投(tou)資(zi)者賬戶(hu)里該有(you)(you)11元(yuan)(yuan),除(chu)息(xi)后股(gu)(gu)價(jia)調整為(wei)9元(yuan)(yuan),賬戶(hu)里的(de)(de)(de)(de)錢(qian)(qian)還(huan)是(shi)(shi)(shi)最開始的(de)(de)(de)(de)10元(yuan)(yuan)。若是(shi)(shi)(shi)再算上分紅(hong)(hong)還(huan)要交(jiao)稅(shui),那對(dui)投(tou)資(zi)者可能(neng)還(huan)是(shi)(shi)(shi)個(ge)虧錢(qian)(qian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)買(mai)賣。對(dui)其而言,唯一(yi)(yi)能(neng)期待的(de)(de)(de)(de)是(shi)(shi)(shi)股(gu)(gu)價(jia)走出(chu)填(tian)權行(xing)情。
再(zai)來看上(shang)市(shi)公(gong)司,多數(shu)時候都在講分(fen)紅(hong)是上(shang)市(shi)公(gong)司的(de)(de)義(yi)務和(he)責(ze)任。這話當然是對(dui)(dui)的(de)(de),但(dan)如果僅有義(yi)務,沒有激勵,一(yi)件事(shi)情(qing)就(jiu)(jiu)難以長(chang)(chang)期(qi)堅(jian)持(chi)和(he)普(pu)遍推廣,在實際執(zhi)行中也難免會效果不佳。成熟市(shi)場(chang)上(shang),穩定的(de)(de)分(fen)紅(hong)和(he)回購能(neng)(neng)給(gei)市(shi)場(chang)帶來穩定的(de)(de)預期(qi),對(dui)(dui)二(er)級市(shi)場(chang)估(gu)值(zhi)(zhi)形成支撐。這樣(yang),分(fen)紅(hong)和(he)回購就(jiu)(jiu)能(neng)(neng)成為(wei)上(shang)市(shi)公(gong)司進行價值(zhi)(zhi)管(guan)理乃至估(gu)值(zhi)(zhi)管(guan)理的(de)(de)重要(yao)工(gong)具,也就(jiu)(jiu)是其(qi)積(ji)極分(fen)紅(hong)的(de)(de)動力所在。境內市(shi)場(chang)上(shang),可能(neng)(neng)還經(jing)常不是如此。分(fen)紅(hong)大頭的(de)(de)銀行、基建、傳統制(zhi)造、公(gong)用事(shi)業等板塊(kuai),年年都拿出真(zhen)心誠意(yi)反(fan)哺市(shi)場(chang),但(dan)其(qi)估(gu)值(zhi)(zhi)水平往往還比不過那些(xie)花(hua)樣(yang)翻新卻業績(ji)孱弱的(de)(de)“鐵公(gong)雞”。長(chang)(chang)此以往,公(gong)司分(fen)紅(hong)的(de)(de)積(ji)極性(xing)自然受到影(ying)響。
當然(ran)(ran)事情也(ye)在(zai)發生變(bian)化。一(yi)些公司(si)堅持扎實(shi)經營、穩(wen)定(ding)回饋,得到了(le)投資(zi)者的(de)(de)(de)認(ren)可。例(li)如大(da)家都很熟悉的(de)(de)(de)福耀玻璃,長期堅持穩(wen)定(ding)分(fen)紅,近10年(nian)平均派現(xian)比例(li)超(chao)過50%,吸引了(le)一(yi)批忠實(shi)的(de)(de)(de)追隨(sui)者,成為其(qi)股(gu)價的(de)(de)(de)穩(wen)定(ding)器。還(huan)有貴州茅臺(tai),雖然(ran)(ran)對其(qi)估值有市場(chang)分(fen)歧(qi),但(dan)其(qi)長期的(de)(de)(de)穩(wen)定(ding)分(fen)紅也(ye)還(huan)是(shi)對市場(chang)的(de)(de)(de)有力支(zhi)撐。另有家公司(si)曾表示5年(nian)不分(fen)紅,次(ci)年(nian)真沒(mei)分(fen)紅,股(gu)價卻立即跌停,公司(si)在(zai)下一(yi)年(nian)即恢復了(le)分(fen)紅。這背后(hou),是(shi)市場(chang)投資(zi)文化的(de)(de)(de)悄然(ran)(ran)改變(bian),穩(wen)定(ding)回報(bao)的(de)(de)(de)公司(si)已經被越(yue)來越(yue)多的(de)(de)(de)投資(zi)者所(suo)青睞。
還有(you)一種比較流(liu)行的意(yi)見(jian),認為(wei)分(fen)紅是(shi)(shi)公(gong)司自己的事,制(zhi)度上(shang)無需過多干(gan)預。對這(zhe)個觀點也要(yao)(yao)(yao)辯證地(di)看(kan)。一方(fang)面,對于公(gong)司分(fen)紅該分(fen)多少,確實(shi)不(bu)(bu)能(neng)一刀切地(di)強制(zhi)要(yao)(yao)(yao)求(qiu)。但是(shi)(shi)光靠市(shi)場(chang)(chang)約束(shu)可(ke)能(neng)不(bu)(bu)夠。很多時候市(shi)場(chang)(chang)并不(bu)(bu)是(shi)(shi)完全有(you)效,尤(you)其是(shi)(shi)我們這(zhe)樣一個從平地(di)建起來而(er)不(bu)(bu)是(shi)(shi)自發形成(cheng)的市(shi)場(chang)(chang),機制(zhi)上(shang)的短板如(ru)果(guo)沒有(you)制(zhi)度上(shang)的引導安(an)排,可(ke)能(neng)要(yao)(yao)(yao)走很長的路才能(neng)到達(da)(da)目(mu)標,甚(shen)至(zhi)達(da)(da)不(bu)(bu)到目(mu)標。現金分(fen)紅也是(shi)(shi)這(zhe)樣。如(ru)果(guo)開(kai)始的時候公(gong)司都(dou)不(bu)(bu)分(fen)紅,制(zhi)度上(shang)做(zuo)些引導讓公(gong)司能(neng)適當分(fen)紅本身無可(ke)厚非。這(zhe)樣制(zhi)度安(an)排在海外早已有(you)之。實(shi)際(ji)上(shang),美(mei)國、韓國、巴西等市(shi)場(chang)(chang)也都(dou)有(you)半(ban)強制(zhi)甚(shen)至(zhi)強制(zhi)的分(fen)紅要(yao)(yao)(yao)求(qiu),有(you)些至(zhi)今還在沿用。
之(zhi)所以現(xian)金(jin)分(fen)(fen)紅(hong)(hong)這么重要,是因為(wei)有(you)了(le)(le)一個長期(qi)穩(wen)定(ding)分(fen)(fen)紅(hong)(hong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)基礎,可以使(shi)得(de)資(zi)本市(shi)(shi)場(chang)更加穩(wen)健、有(you)效。這也(ye)(ye)有(you)過(guo)實(shi)證分(fen)(fen)析(xi)。有(you)分(fen)(fen)析(xi)師測算,2010年至2019年,標普500上(shang)漲了(le)(le)190%,其中,盈(ying)利貢獻了(le)(le)106%,回購(gou)和分(fen)(fen)紅(hong)(hong)則貢獻了(le)(le)56%。推(tui)動指數(shu)長期(qi)上(shang)行(xing)的(de)(de)(de)(de)核心仍(reng)然是盈(ying)利,但分(fen)(fen)紅(hong)(hong)與(yu)回購(gou)對指數(shu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)上(shang)漲也(ye)(ye)有(you)顯(xian)著的(de)(de)(de)(de)正面作用(yong)。回看我們境內市(shi)(shi)場(chang),現(xian)金(jin)分(fen)(fen)紅(hong)(hong)也(ye)(ye)取得(de)了(le)(le)明顯(xian)進(jin)展(zhan),不僅形(xing)成(cheng)了(le)(le)一批長期(qi)穩(wen)定(ding)分(fen)(fen)紅(hong)(hong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)群體,也(ye)(ye)有(you)機構(gou)投(tou)資(zi)者(zhe)看重分(fen)(fen)紅(hong)(hong)了(le)(le)。但還要在(zai)(zai)這些理念深(shen)化認識(shi)基礎上(shang),解決一些難(nan)題,一是在(zai)(zai)分(fen)(fen)紅(hong)(hong)稅收和除息機制上(shang)做一些研究(jiu)改進(jin),讓分(fen)(fen)紅(hong)(hong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)錢(qian)真正成(cheng)為(wei)投(tou)資(zi)者(zhe)口袋里的(de)(de)(de)(de)錢(qian),提高投(tou)資(zi)者(zhe)分(fen)(fen)紅(hong)(hong)獲得(de)感;二是推(tui)動市(shi)(shi)場(chang)估(gu)值回歸藍籌公司(si)和真正有(you)成(cheng)長性的(de)(de)(de)(de)科技股,引導現(xian)金(jin)分(fen)(fen)紅(hong)(hong)成(cheng)為(wei)上(shang)市(shi)(shi)公司(si)的(de)(de)(de)(de)自主(zhu)選擇。我們的(de)(de)(de)(de)市(shi)(shi)場(chang)也(ye)(ye)就(jiu)能(neng)在(zai)(zai)這樣(yang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)過(guo)程中成(cheng)熟(shu)起來。
中(zhong)證(zheng)(zheng)網(wang)(wang)聲(sheng)明:凡本(ben)(ben)網(wang)(wang)注(zhu)明“來(lai)源:中(zhong)國(guo)(guo)證(zheng)(zheng)券報(bao)(bao)·中(zhong)證(zheng)(zheng)網(wang)(wang)”的所有作(zuo)品(pin)(pin)(pin),版(ban)權(quan)均(jun)屬于(yu)中(zhong)國(guo)(guo)證(zheng)(zheng)券報(bao)(bao)、中(zhong)證(zheng)(zheng)網(wang)(wang)。中(zhong)國(guo)(guo)證(zheng)(zheng)券報(bao)(bao)·中(zhong)證(zheng)(zheng)網(wang)(wang)與(yu)作(zuo)品(pin)(pin)(pin)作(zuo)者聯合(he)聲(sheng)明,任(ren)何(he)組織未經中(zhong)國(guo)(guo)證(zheng)(zheng)券報(bao)(bao)、中(zhong)證(zheng)(zheng)網(wang)(wang)以及作(zuo)者書面授(shou)權(quan)不(bu)(bu)得轉載、摘編(bian)或利用(yong)其(qi)它(ta)方式使用(yong)上述(shu)作(zuo)品(pin)(pin)(pin)。凡本(ben)(ben)網(wang)(wang)注(zhu)明來(lai)源非中(zhong)國(guo)(guo)證(zheng)(zheng)券報(bao)(bao)·中(zhong)證(zheng)(zheng)網(wang)(wang)的作(zuo)品(pin)(pin)(pin),均(jun)轉載自其(qi)它(ta)媒體(ti),轉載目的在于(yu)更好服務讀者、傳遞信息之(zhi)需(xu),并(bing)不(bu)(bu)代表本(ben)(ben)網(wang)(wang)贊同其(qi)觀點,本(ben)(ben)網(wang)(wang)亦不(bu)(bu)對其(qi)真實性負(fu)責,持異議(yi)者應與(yu)原(yuan)出(chu)處單位(wei)主張(zhang)權(quan)利。
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