事件:巨石集(ji)團擬(ni)實(shi)施(shi)新材(cai)料智能制(zhi)造基地生產線擴建(jian)(jian)項(xiang)目(mu)(mu),總(zong)投資(zi)為 93.23 億(yi)元(yuan),項(xiang)目(mu)(mu)將(jiang)一(yi)次規劃、分期(qi)建(jian)(jian)設(she)(she),其中(zhong)包括年(nian)產 15 萬噸玻璃纖維智能制(zhi)造生產線擴建(jian)(jian)項(xiang)目(mu)(mu),三(san)條年(nian)產 6 萬噸電子紗暨年(nian)產 2 億(yi)米電子布生產線項(xiang)目(mu)(mu),并配套(tao)建(jian)(jian)設(she)(she)公司新總(zong)部大(da)樓。項(xiang)目(mu)(mu)建(jian)(jian)成后,合計預計年(nian)實(shi)現營收 38.11 億(yi)元(yuan),年(nian)平(ping)均利(li)潤總(zong)額 13.17 億(yi)元(yuan)。資(zi)金來源為公司自籌及銀(yin)行貸款。
點(dian)評:公(gong)(gong)司此次(ci)總(zong)投資(zi)規模之大,合計(ji)近百億(yi),為公(gong)(gong)司歷史首(shou)次(ci)。此次(ci)資(zi)金為自籌和(he)銀行(xing)貸款為主,是基于公(gong)(gong)司卓越的現金流和(he)貸款信用。公(gong)(gong)司擴建產(chan)(chan)品以電(dian)子(zi)(zi)紗(sha)為主,三條生產(chan)(chan)線合計(ji) 18 萬噸電(dian)子(zi)(zi)紗(sha)及(ji) 8 億(yi)米(mi)電(dian)子(zi)(zi)布(bu),目前(qian)公(gong)(gong)司有電(dian)子(zi)(zi)紗(sha)產(chan)(chan)能(neng) 4 萬噸,電(dian)子(zi)(zi)布(bu) 2 億(yi)米(mi),該新(xin)基地建完投產(chan)(chan)后公(gong)(gong)司電(dian)子(zi)(zi)紗(sha)電(dian)子(zi)(zi)布(bu)占總(zong)營收比重明顯提升,大幅擴充電(dian)子(zi)(zi)紗(sha)電(dian)子(zi)(zi)布(bu)意(yi)味(wei)著公(gong)(gong)司將轉(zhuan)型升級、新(xin)材料智能(neng)制造(zao)作為未(wei)來(lai)(lai)重點(dian)方向打造(zao)。預計(ji)目前(qian)全(quan)球電(dian)子(zi)(zi)紗(sha)需求 100萬噸,未(wei)來(lai)(lai)仍(reng)有較大提升空間。
高(gao)(gao)端紗占比(bi)將進一(yi)步提(ti)升,周期弱化成長屬性(xing)明確。目前(qian)公司已(yi)有玻(bo)纖(xian)中高(gao)(gao)端紗占比(bi)接近6 成,未(wei)來隨(sui)著電(dian)子紗的(de)投產、以(yi)及(ji)(ji)海外高(gao)(gao)端產能的(de)擴張(zhang),公司高(gao)(gao)端紗占比(bi)將進一(yi)步提(ti)升,產品均價及(ji)(ji)利潤水(shui)平有望持續上升。高(gao)(gao)端紗市場(chang)(chang)是一(yi)個成長型(xing)的(de)市場(chang)(chang),產能擴張(zhang)將強化公司成長屬性(xing),弱化傳(chuan)統周期束(shu)縛。
12 月 19 日公(gong)司(si)公(gong)告中建材將(jiang)消(xiao)除(chu)和(he)避(bi)免旗下玻(bo)纖(xian)(xian)同業(ye)(ye)競爭(zheng),我們認為(wei)這(zhe)是將(jiang)中國巨石和(he)中材科技玻(bo)纖(xian)(xian)業(ye)(ye)務協(xie)同或整合提上(shang)議(yi)程,中國巨石行業(ye)(ye)話語權有(you)望再(zai)上(shang)一臺階。目前兩家合計玻(bo)纖(xian)(xian)產能約(yue) 221 萬(wan)噸( 138 萬(wan)噸和(he) 83 萬(wan)噸),占國內玻(bo)纖(xian)(xian)總產能超(chao)一半(ban),占全球超(chao) 3成,若協(xie)同或合并,中國巨石因規模及(ji)管理(li)優勢有(you)望占據主導,中國巨石行業(ye)(ye)話語權將(jiang)再(zai)跨上(shang)一個臺階,全球玻(bo)纖(xian)(xian)巨頭將(jiang)誕生。
由(you)于(yu)公(gong)司(si)宣布(bu)所(suo)有產(chan)(chan)品(pin)明年一季度價格上(shang)調(diao) 6%, 且此次投(tou)資擴產(chan)(chan)規(gui)模較大, 我們上(shang)調(diao)盈利預(yu)(yu)測,維持“買入”評(ping)級。預(yu)(yu)期(qi)(qi) 2017-2019 年公(gong)司(si)實現營(ying)業收(shou)入 86.4、 102.0、 113.0 億元(yuan)(yuan)(此前(qian)為 87.7、 93.3、 100.1 億元(yuan)(yuan)) ,歸母凈利潤 21.4、 26.7、 30.9 億元(yuan)(yuan)(此前(qian)為 20.2、23.1、 25.9 億元(yuan)(yuan)) ,對應(ying) EPS 為 0.73、 0.92、 1.06 元(yuan)(yuan),當前(qian)股價對應(ying)動態 PE 分(fen)別為23X/18X/16X。公(gong)司(si)布(bu)局海(hai)外(wai)產(chan)(chan)能未來成長性延續(xu),疊(die)加對集團優質資產(chan)(chan)的整合有望(wang)(wang)提升估值,目前(qian)玻(bo)纖處于(yu)漲價通道業績有望(wang)(wang)超預(yu)(yu)期(qi)(qi),維持“買入”評(ping)級。
中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)證(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)網(wang)聲(sheng)(sheng)明:凡本網(wang)注(zhu)明“來源:中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)證(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)券(quan)(quan)報·中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)證(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)網(wang)”的所有作(zuo)(zuo)品(pin),版權(quan)均屬于中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)證(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)券(quan)(quan)報、中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)證(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)網(wang)。中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)證(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)券(quan)(quan)報·中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)證(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)網(wang)與(yu)作(zuo)(zuo)品(pin)作(zuo)(zuo)者聯(lian)合聲(sheng)(sheng)明,任何組織未經中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)證(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)券(quan)(quan)報、中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)證(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)網(wang)以及(ji)作(zuo)(zuo)者書面(mian)授權(quan)不(bu)得(de)轉載(zai)(zai)、摘編或利用(yong)其(qi)(qi)它(ta)方(fang)式使(shi)用(yong)上述(shu)作(zuo)(zuo)品(pin)。凡本網(wang)注(zhu)明來源非(fei)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)證(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)券(quan)(quan)報·中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)證(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)網(wang)的作(zuo)(zuo)品(pin),均轉載(zai)(zai)自其(qi)(qi)它(ta)媒體,轉載(zai)(zai)目的在于更好服(fu)務讀者、傳遞(di)信息(xi)之需(xu),并不(bu)代表本網(wang)贊同(tong)其(qi)(qi)觀點,本網(wang)亦不(bu)對其(qi)(qi)真實性負責,持異議者應與(yu)原(yuan)出處單位主張權(quan)利。
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