受上周國際原(yuan)油價格突破80美(mei)元/桶大(da)關刺激,國內石(shi)油板塊迎來大(da)漲(zhang)(zhang)。同(tong)花順(shun)數據顯示,石(shi)油礦(kuang)業開(kai)采板塊5月21日漲(zhang)(zhang)幅(fu)達2.61%;“兩桶油”之一(yi)的中石(shi)油股價在(zai)上周五更是(shi)創下了近三年來最高漲(zhang)(zhang)幅(fu),達7.33%;中石(shi)化也上漲(zhang)(zhang)2.48%。
本周一(yi)(5月21日)布(bu)(bu)倫(lun)(lun)特原(yuan)油(you)價格有所回(hui)落,但仍(reng)然逼近80美元(yuan)/桶。截至發(fa)稿,布(bu)(bu)倫(lun)(lun)特原(yuan)油(you)價格為78.62美元(yuan)/桶。自去年6月份以來,國(guo)際原(yuan)油(you)價格持續上(shang)漲,2018年至今上(shang)漲幅度已超(chao)過18%。
這一(yi)(yi)利(li)好在兩桶(tong)油(you)日(ri)前公(gong)布的(de)2018年(nian)一(yi)(yi)季度業績(ji)上已經有所體(ti)現(xian)。中石油(you)今(jin)年(nian)一(yi)(yi)季度營收實現(xian)5426億(yi)(yi)元(yuan),同(tong)(tong)比增(zeng)(zeng)長9.9%;歸(gui)屬于(yu)母(mu)公(gong)司股東(dong)的(de)凈(jing)利(li)潤(run)突破百億(yi)(yi)大關(guan),達101億(yi)(yi)元(yuan),同(tong)(tong)比增(zeng)(zeng)長78.1%。中石化今(jin)年(nian)一(yi)(yi)季度營收實現(xian)6212億(yi)(yi)元(yuan),同(tong)(tong)比增(zeng)(zeng)長6.7%;歸(gui)屬于(yu)母(mu)公(gong)司股東(dong)凈(jing)利(li)潤(run)達187億(yi)(yi)元(yuan),同(tong)(tong)比增(zeng)(zeng)長12.8%。
根據中(zhong)(zhong)石(shi)油(you)2017年(nian)年(nian)報,勘探與(yu)生產業(ye)務(wu)(wu)、煉(lian)油(you)與(yu)化工業(ye)務(wu)(wu)為中(zhong)(zhong)石(shi)油(you)毛利率最(zui)高(gao)的兩(liang)大業(ye)務(wu)(wu)板塊(kuai),分別為12.8%和(he)13.1%。2017年(nian),中(zhong)(zhong)石(shi)油(you)原油(you)平均實現(xian)價(jia)格(ge)人民(min)幣2392元/噸,同比增(zeng)長27.2%。中(zhong)(zhong)石(shi)化2017年(nian)原油(you)實現(xian)平均價(jia)格(ge)人民(min)幣2390元/噸,同比增(zeng)加46.8%。
中石油(you)(you)(you)證券事務代(dai)表(biao)梁(liang)剛對《證券日報》記者(zhe)表(biao)示,公(gong)司(si)預計2018年(nian)油(you)(you)(you)價(jia)(jia)總體高于去年(nian),布倫(lun)特原(yuan)油(you)(you)(you)年(nian)均(jun)(jun)價(jia)(jia)為65美(mei)(mei)元(yuan)(yuan)/桶,較(jiao)2017年(nian)提高約10美(mei)(mei)元(yuan)(yuan)/桶。預計2020年(nian)前國(guo)際油(you)(you)(you)價(jia)(jia)將緩慢上升,年(nian)均(jun)(jun)價(jia)(jia)為70美(mei)(mei)元(yuan)(yuan)/桶。今年(nian)以來,國(guo)際油(you)(you)(you)價(jia)(jia)保持上升態勢,為公(gong)司(si)經營業績提升奠定了基礎。但公(gong)司(si)并不依(yi)賴油(you)(you)(you)價(jia)(jia),近年(nian)來,公(gong)司(si)持續推進開(kai)源(yuan)節流降(jiang)本增效工(gong)程,優化資(zi)源(yuan)配置和生產運行(xing),取(qu)得(de)了很大成效。
可(ke)以看到的是(shi),在目前的油(you)(you)(you)價區(qu)間下(xia)(xia),對(dui)于兩桶油(you)(you)(you)來說(shuo)將迎來業(ye)績(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)增長期。光大(da)證券(quan)石(shi)化化工行業(ye)首席分析師裘孝鋒認為,兩桶油(you)(you)(you)今年中(zhong)(zhong)期業(ye)績(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)會(hui)(hui)很不錯(cuo),尤其是(shi)二季度會(hui)(hui)非常(chang)理想。根據測算(suan),“中(zhong)(zhong)石(shi)化的每(mei)股(gu)收益(yi)在布倫(lun)特(te)(te)原油(you)(you)(you)價格85美(mei)元(yuan)(yuan)/桶-90美(mei)元(yuan)(yuan)/桶左右(you)達(da)到最(zui)(zui)高值0.87元(yuan)(yuan),一(yi)直到布倫(lun)特(te)(te)原油(you)(you)(you)135美(mei)元(yuan)(yuan)/桶都維持(chi)在0.75元(yuan)(yuan)以上的業(ye)績(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji),但一(yi)旦(dan)過(guo)了(le)布倫(lun)特(te)(te)135美(mei)元(yuan)(yuan)/桶以后(hou),中(zhong)(zhong)石(shi)化的業(ye)績(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)由(you)于煉油(you)(you)(you)的虧(kui)損,業(ye)績(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)將出現(xian)巨(ju)幅的下(xia)(xia)滑(hua);而中(zhong)(zhong)石(shi)油(you)(you)(you)的每(mei)股(gu)收益(yi)在布倫(lun)特(te)(te)原油(you)(you)(you)價格135美(mei)元(yuan)(yuan)/桶時達(da)到最(zui)(zui)高點(dian)1.02元(yuan)(yuan),過(guo)了(le)135美(mei)元(yuan)(yuan)/桶之后(hou),業(ye)績(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)會(hui)(hui)有(you)所下(xia)(xia)滑(hua)但依然報出不錯(cuo)。但中(zhong)(zhong)石(shi)油(you)(you)(you)在國際油(you)(you)(you)價70美(mei)元(yuan)(yuan)/桶以下(xia)(xia)時,業(ye)績(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)較低。”裘孝鋒對(dui)《證券(quan)日報》記者表示。
裘孝鋒(feng)認為,目前國際原(yuan)油價(jia)格中期(qi)來看仍然比較樂觀,原(yuan)油價(jia)格上(shang)漲主要受地緣政(zheng)治影(ying)(ying)響:伊朗(lang)被美(mei)國制裁,委內瑞拉(la)原(yuan)油供應量的(de)下(xia)降(jiang),歐佩克(ke)通過減產(chan)降(jiang)庫存,根據評估目前產(chan)量下(xia)降(jiang)的(de)趨勢仍然沒(mei)有(you)改變,原(yuan)油產(chan)能的(de)退出對全(quan)球原(yuan)油的(de)供應會帶來實質性的(de)影(ying)(ying)響。但國際油價(jia)仍然會是慢慢往上(shang)走的(de)趨勢,除(chu)非(fei)出現(xian)極端的(de)地緣政(zheng)治因素(su),短期(qi)內國際油價(jia)難(nan)以觸及100美(mei)元/桶。
“總的(de)來(lai)看,隨(sui)著(zhu)國際原油(you)價(jia)(jia)格的(de)回升,以及國內成品油(you)定價(jia)(jia)機(ji)制(zhi)的(de)保(bao)證,中(zhong)石(shi)油(you)和中(zhong)石(shi)化(hua)均會(hui)保(bao)持(chi)較好的(de)業(ye)績。中(zhong)期(qi)來(lai)看,兩家企業(ye)股價(jia)(jia)也(ye)會(hui)保(bao)持(chi)往上走行情。”裘(qiu)孝(xiao)鋒表示。
中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)證網(wang)聲(sheng)明(ming)(ming):凡本(ben)網(wang)注明(ming)(ming)“來(lai)源:中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)證券(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)報(bao)(bao)(bao)·中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)證網(wang)”的(de)(de)所有(you)作(zuo)(zuo)品(pin),版權均屬于(yu)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)證券(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)報(bao)(bao)(bao)、中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)證網(wang)。中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)證券(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)報(bao)(bao)(bao)·中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)證網(wang)與作(zuo)(zuo)品(pin)作(zuo)(zuo)者聯合聲(sheng)明(ming)(ming),任何組織未經中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)證券(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)報(bao)(bao)(bao)、中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)證網(wang)以(yi)及作(zuo)(zuo)者書面(mian)授權不(bu)得(de)轉(zhuan)載(zai)、摘編(bian)或(huo)利(li)用(yong)(yong)其(qi)它(ta)(ta)方(fang)式使用(yong)(yong)上述作(zuo)(zuo)品(pin)。凡本(ben)網(wang)注明(ming)(ming)來(lai)源非(fei)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)證券(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)報(bao)(bao)(bao)·中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)證網(wang)的(de)(de)作(zuo)(zuo)品(pin),均轉(zhuan)載(zai)自(zi)其(qi)它(ta)(ta)媒體,轉(zhuan)載(zai)目的(de)(de)在于(yu)更(geng)好服務(wu)讀者、傳(chuan)遞信(xin)息(xi)之(zhi)需,并(bing)不(bu)代(dai)表本(ben)網(wang)贊同(tong)其(qi)觀點,本(ben)網(wang)亦不(bu)對其(qi)真實性負責,持異議者應(ying)與原出(chu)處單位主張權利(li)。
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