2018年6月中國制造業采購經理指數
和非制造業商務活動指數走勢總體平穩
——國(guo)家統計(ji)局服務業調查中心高級統計(ji)師(shi)趙慶河解讀(du)2018年6月中國(guo)采購經理指數
2018年6月30日國家統(tong)計(ji)局服(fu)務(wu)業(ye)調查中(zhong)心和(he)中(zhong)國物(wu)流與采購聯合會發布了中(zhong)國采購經理(li)指數(shu)。對此(ci),國家統(tong)計(ji)局服(fu)務(wu)業(ye)調查中(zhong)心高級(ji)統(tong)計(ji)師趙慶河進(jin)行了解讀。
一、制造業采購經理指數持續在擴張區間運行
今年以(yi)來,制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)PMI均(jun)在50.0%以(yi)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)的(de)景(jing)氣(qi)區(qu)間運行,上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)半年均(jun)值(zhi)為51.3%,本月(yue)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)PMI為51.5%,比上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)月(yue)回(hui)落(luo)0.4個(ge)(ge)(ge)百分(fen)點(dian)(dian)(dian),仍(reng)高(gao)(gao)于(yu)(yu)(yu)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)半年均(jun)值(zhi)0.2個(ge)(ge)(ge)百分(fen)點(dian)(dian)(dian),制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)總(zong)(zong)(zong)體(ti)保(bao)持擴(kuo)張。本月(yue)主(zhu)(zhu)要(yao)特點(dian)(dian)(dian):一是制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)基本面總(zong)(zong)(zong)體(ti)向(xiang)好。在調查的(de)21個(ge)(ge)(ge)行業(ye)(ye)(ye)中(zhong),15個(ge)(ge)(ge)行業(ye)(ye)(ye)的(de)PMI位于(yu)(yu)(yu)擴(kuo)張區(qu)間,其中(zhong)醫藥制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)、專用設(she)備(bei)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)、計算機通(tong)信電(dian)子設(she)備(bei)及儀器儀表制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)PMI均(jun)位于(yu)(yu)(yu)54.0%以(yi)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)的(de)較高(gao)(gao)景(jing)氣(qi)區(qu)間,保(bao)持較快增長。二(er)是生產(chan)和需求總(zong)(zong)(zong)體(ti)穩步(bu)增長。生產(chan)指(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)數(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)和新(xin)訂(ding)單指(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)數(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)分(fen)別為53.6%和53.2%,雖(sui)低于(yu)(yu)(yu)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)月(yue)0.5和0.6個(ge)(ge)(ge)百分(fen)點(dian)(dian)(dian),但仍(reng)高(gao)(gao)于(yu)(yu)(yu)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)半年均(jun)值(zhi)0.6和0.4個(ge)(ge)(ge)百分(fen)點(dian)(dian)(dian),市場供需持續擴(kuo)張。三是進(jin)出(chu)(chu)口景(jing)氣(qi)度(du)有所回(hui)落(luo)。新(xin)出(chu)(chu)口訂(ding)單指(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)數(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)為49.8%,比上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)月(yue)下降1.4個(ge)(ge)(ge)百分(fen)點(dian)(dian)(dian)。進(jin)口指(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)數(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)為50.0%,低于(yu)(yu)(yu)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)月(yue)0.9個(ge)(ge)(ge)百分(fen)點(dian)(dian)(dian),制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)進(jin)出(chu)(chu)口總(zong)(zong)(zong)體(ti)有所放緩。四是價格指(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)數(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)繼續上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)行。主(zhu)(zhu)要(yao)原材料購(gou)進(jin)價格指(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)數(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)為57.7%,高(gao)(gao)于(yu)(yu)(yu)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)月(yue)1.0個(ge)(ge)(ge)百分(fen)點(dian)(dian)(dian),連續兩個(ge)(ge)(ge)月(yue)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)升;出(chu)(chu)廠價格指(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)數(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)為53.3%,比上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)月(yue)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)升0.1個(ge)(ge)(ge)百分(fen)點(dian)(dian)(dian),為今年高(gao)(gao)點(dian)(dian)(dian)。其中(zhong)黑色(se)金屬冶煉及壓延加工業(ye)(ye)(ye)的(de)主(zhu)(zhu)要(yao)原材料購(gou)進(jin)價格指(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)數(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)和出(chu)(chu)廠價格指(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)數(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)均(jun)升至70.0%以(yi)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang),漲(zhang)幅有所擴(kuo)大。
從(cong)企業(ye)規模看,大型企業(ye)PMI為52.9%,比(bi)上月回(hui)落0.2個(ge)(ge)百分點(dian),仍為年內次高點(dian),也是制造業(ye)保持穩步(bu)擴(kuo)張(zhang)的(de)主要支撐;中型企業(ye)PMI為49.9%,比(bi)上月下(xia)降(jiang)1.1個(ge)(ge)百分點(dian);小型企業(ye)PMI為49.8%,比(bi)上月回(hui)升0.2個(ge)(ge)百分點(dian)。
二、非制造業商務活動指數持續上升
6月(yue)份,非制造業商務活動指(zhi)數(shu)為55.0%,環比上(shang)升0.1個(ge)百(bai)分點,高于(yu)上(shang)半年(nian)(nian)均值0.2個(ge)百(bai)分點,該指(zhi)數(shu)連續(xu)四個(ge)月(yue)穩步上(shang)升,表(biao)明(ming)今年(nian)(nian)以來非制造業總(zong)體上(shang)保持平穩向(xiang)好發展勢(shi)頭。
服(fu)(fu)務業(ye)(ye)保持(chi)較(jiao)(jiao)高(gao)景氣水平。服(fu)(fu)務業(ye)(ye)商(shang)務活(huo)動(dong)指(zhi)數(shu)(shu)為54.0%,與(yu)上(shang)月(yue)持(chi)平,高(gao)于(yu)(yu)(yu)上(shang)半年均值0.1個百分(fen)點(dian),服(fu)(fu)務業(ye)(ye)繼續保持(chi)較(jiao)(jiao)快增(zeng)長(chang)態(tai)勢。從(cong)行(xing)業(ye)(ye)看,鐵路(lu)運(yun)輸、航(hang)空(kong)運(yun)輸、電信、銀(yin)行(xing)等(deng)行(xing)業(ye)(ye)商(shang)務活(huo)動(dong)指(zhi)數(shu)(shu)均位(wei)于(yu)(yu)(yu)60.0%以上(shang)的高(gao)位(wei)景氣區間(jian),實現(xian)快速增(zeng)長(chang)。道路(lu)運(yun)輸、證券(quan)、居民(min)服(fu)(fu)務等(deng)行(xing)業(ye)(ye)的商(shang)務活(huo)動(dong)指(zhi)數(shu)(shu)低于(yu)(yu)(yu)臨界點(dian),業(ye)(ye)務總量有所回落。從(cong)市場預(yu)期看,業(ye)(ye)務活(huo)動(dong)預(yu)期指(zhi)數(shu)(shu)為60.3%,與(yu)上(shang)月(yue)持(chi)平。全部調查行(xing)業(ye)(ye)的業(ye)(ye)務活(huo)動(dong)預(yu)期指(zhi)數(shu)(shu)均位(wei)于(yu)(yu)(yu)景氣區間(jian),表明服(fu)(fu)務業(ye)(ye)企業(ye)(ye)對未來(lai)市場發展預(yu)期普遍持(chi)積極樂觀態(tai)度。
建筑業擴張加快(kuai)。今年(nian)(nian)以來建筑業保(bao)持快(kuai)速增長,本月(yue)商務活動指(zhi)數為(wei)(wei)60.7%,升至(zhi)年(nian)(nian)內(nei)高點(dian),且高于上(shang)半年(nian)(nian)均值0.7個(ge)百(bai)分點(dian),其中房屋(wu)建筑業商務活動指(zhi)數連(lian)續四個(ge)月(yue)上(shang)升,達到(dao)68.0%的較高水(shui)平(ping)。從價格(ge)看,在市場活躍度增強的驅動下,建筑業投入品(pin)價格(ge)指(zhi)數和銷(xiao)售價格(ge)指(zhi)數為(wei)(wei)61.7%和54.4%,分別比上(shang)月(yue)上(shang)升2.3和1.6個(ge)百(bai)分點(dian),均為(wei)(wei)年(nian)(nian)內(nei)高點(dian)。
三、綜合PMI產出指數平穩擴張
6月份,綜合(he)PMI產出指數為(wei)54.4%,低(di)于(yu)上月0.2個百分(fen)點,但高于(yu)上半年均(jun)值0.3個百分(fen)點,處于(yu)較(jiao)(jiao)高擴張區(qu)間,表明我國(guo)企業(ye)當(dang)期(qi)生產經營(ying)活動總體延續平穩較(jiao)(jiao)快(kuai)的(de)擴張態(tai)勢。其中(zhong),構成綜合(he)PMI產出指數的(de)制造業(ye)生產指數和(he)非制造業(ye)商務活動指數分(fen)別為(wei)53.6%和(he)55.0%,環比一(yi)(yi)落(luo)一(yi)(yi)升。
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