統計局今(jin)天公(gong)布了2015年(nian)一季(ji)度GDP增(zeng)速7%,創2008年(nian)四季(ji)度以來新低。華泰證券分(fen)析(xi)稱(cheng),財政和基建投資則將(jiang)發力穩增(zeng)長(chang)。
以下為詳細分析:
一季(ji)度(du)(du)經(jing)濟(ji)加速(su)下滑,貨幣加碼財(cai)政基建發力:一季(ji)度(du)(du)GDP增長(chang)(chang)7%,基本符(fu)合預期(qi)(qi)。一季(ji)度(du)(du)GDP環比折(zhe)年僅5.3%,經(jing)濟(ji)增長(chang)(chang)動能大幅下降。經(jing)濟(ji)下行符(fu)合此前預判,通縮稍有(you)緩解(jie)但依然嚴峻,出口大幅低增,工業、投(tou)資、消費(fei)全面低于(yu)(yu)預期(qi)(qi),14日(ri)公(gong)布(bu)的貨幣信貸社(she)融數據同(tong)樣顯著低于(yu)(yu)預期(qi)(qi),預計(ji)二季(ji)度(du)(du)政策環境將(jiang)進一步(bu)友好,貨幣寬松政策將(jiang)繼續加碼,財(cai)政和基建投(tou)資則(ze)將(jiang)發力穩(wen)增長(chang)(chang)。正如2014年11月11日(ri)公(gong)布(bu)的中長(chang)(chang)期(qi)(qi)預測(ce)顯示(shi),今年一季(ji)度(du)(du)經(jing)濟(ji)加速(su)下行至7%,二季(ji)度(du)(du)經(jing)濟(ji)在政策扶持下企(qi)穩(wen),三季(ji)度(du)(du)將(jiang)走平或略有(you)下滑取(qu)決于(yu)(yu)財(cai)政政策的持續性。
工(gong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)大幅(fu)回落,運輸設備(bei)是亮點:3月工(gong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)增(zeng)加(jia)值僅5.6%,大幅(fu)低于6.9%的一致預期(qi),一季(ji)度(du)工(gong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)增(zeng)加(jia)值6.4%,較(jiao)14年(nian)全年(nian)8.3%出現大滑(hua)坡。3月發電(dian)量(liang)下(xia)降3.7%,鋼鐵增(zeng)長3.6%,汽車(che)增(zeng)長3.5%。工(gong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)部門在經濟中(zhong)的權重進一步下(xia)降,工(gong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)增(zeng)速的下(xia)臺(tai)階(jie)是趨勢性的。分行業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)看,3月上游的采礦(kuang)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)增(zeng)長1.4%,中(zhong)下(xia)游的新興(xing)制造增(zeng)長分化(hua),通用設備(bei)增(zeng)長2.4%,專(zhuan)用設備(bei)下(xia)降0.2%,汽車(che)6.3%,運輸設備(bei)15.5%。
投(tou)資(zi)(zi)低(di)(di)迷,基(ji)建(jian)發力:1-3月固定資(zi)(zi)產投(tou)資(zi)(zi)13.5%,低(di)(di)于市場平均(jun)預(yu)(yu)期的(de)13.8%,制造(zao)業投(tou)資(zi)(zi)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)10.4%,基(ji)礎設(she)施投(tou)資(zi)(zi)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)23.1%。地產新開工(gong)投(tou)資(zi)(zi)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)8.5%,新開工(gong)面積增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)6.8%,銷售面積下(xia)降(jiang)9.2%,銷售額下(xia)降(jiang)9.3%,地產部(bu)門在一季度仍(reng)繼(ji)續(xu)(xu)回落,是否能像我們(men)預(yu)(yu)期的(de)能在二季度初企(qi)穩(wen)仍(reng)有待觀(guan)察。行業繼(ji)續(xu)(xu)分化,上游的(de)采礦業下(xia)降(jiang)4.1%,中下(xia)游的(de)新興(xing)制造(zao)投(tou)資(zi)(zi)相對穩(wen)健,其中通用(yong)設(she)備增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)8.6%,專用(yong)設(she)備增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)9.4%,汽車增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)7.6%,運輸設(she)備增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)8.3%,電氣增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)13.4%,計算機增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)18.3%。
3月社(she)(she)會消(xiao)費(fei)品(pin)零售增速(su)(su)的(de)(de)下(xia)滑(hua)主要(yao)由4個原因導(dao)致(zhi):經濟低(di)(di)迷,居(ju)民收入增速(su)(su)下(xia)降,進而導(dao)致(zhi)社(she)(she)會消(xiao)費(fei)品(pin)零售增速(su)(su)的(de)(de)下(xia)滑(hua);物(wu)價低(di)(di)水平運行,物(wu)價的(de)(de)低(di)(di)迷制約了社(she)(she)會消(xiao)費(fei)品(pin)零售的(de)(de)反彈(dan);反腐(fu)和八項規定制約消(xiao)費(fei),餐飲消(xiao)費(fei)的(de)(de)增速(su)(su)仍然遠遠低(di)(di)于(yu)八項規定之前(qian)(qian)的(de)(de)增速(su)(su);實(shi)際利率(lv)下(xia)行幅度不夠(gou),制約了居(ju)民對耐用品(pin)的(de)(de)消(xiao)費(fei)。社(she)(she)會消(xiao)費(fei)品(pin)零售有望(wang)走出前(qian)(qian)低(di)(di)后高的(de)(de)走勢,但是勢頭較弱,全年社(she)(she)會消(xiao)費(fei)品(pin)零售增速(su)(su)下(xia)降是板上(shang)釘釘。
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