針對今日統計局(ju)公布的8月CPI、PPI數據,光大宏觀發數據快評稱,雖然消(xiao)費品(pin)通脹有(you)所上行(xing),但不影響貨(huo)幣政(zheng)策(ce)(ce)寬松基調。一方(fang)面,豬肉價(jia)格到達高位情況下(xia)(xia)通脹再度上行(xing)壓力有(you)限;另一方(fang)面,央行(xing)在(zai)2季度貨(huo)幣政(zheng)策(ce)(ce)執(zhi)行(xing)報(bao)告中明(ming)確表示不針對單(dan)一商品(pin)調整貨(huo)幣政(zheng)策(ce)(ce)。而(er)工業品(pin)價(jia)格通縮加(jia)劇等指(zhi)標顯示當前經(jing)濟依然面臨(lin)較大下(xia)(xia)行(xing)壓力,未來(lai)全面寬松的貨(huo)幣政(zheng)策(ce)(ce)將持(chi)續(xu)加(jia)碼,通過多種方(fang)式引導(dao)資金進入實體經(jing)濟,擴(kuo)大社會融(rong)資規模,推動經(jing)濟企穩回(hui)升。
具體觀點如下:
1、今日(ri)統計(ji)局公(gong)布的(de)8月通(tong)脹數據(ju)顯示消費品(pin)通(tong)脹略(lve)超預期,而(er)工業品(pin)通(tong)縮再(zai)度加劇。8月CPI同(tong)比(bi)(bi)上漲2.0%,略(lve)高于(yu)我們與市場1.9%的(de)預期,漲幅較上月攀(pan)升(sheng)0.4個(ge)百(bai)分(fen)點(dian)(dian)。而(er)PPI同(tong)比(bi)(bi)下跌(die)5.9%,跌(die)幅較上月再(zai)度擴大0.5個(ge)百(bai)分(fen)點(dian)(dian),繼續創下金融危機以來新低。
2、豬(zhu)(zhu)肉(rou)(rou)、鮮(xian)菜(cai)價(jia)(jia)格上(shang)漲(zhang)推(tui)(tui)動消費(fei)品(pin)通脹(zhang)攀升(sheng),未來進一步上(shang)漲(zhang)空間(jian)有(you)限(xian)。8月CPI環(huan)比(bi)上(shang)漲(zhang)0.5,主(zhu)要受食品(pin)價(jia)(jia)格環(huan)比(bi)上(shang)漲(zhang)1.6%推(tui)(tui)動。其中(zhong)豬(zhu)(zhu)肉(rou)(rou)、鮮(xian)菜(cai)價(jia)(jia)格分別環(huan)比(bi)上(shang)漲(zhang)7.7%和6.8%,貢(gong)獻CPI環(huan)比(bi)漲(zhang)幅(fu)的(de)0.25%和0.21%。豬(zhu)(zhu)肉(rou)(rou)價(jia)(jia)格上(shang)漲(zhang)是近幾個月消費(fei)品(pin)通脹(zhang)攀升(sheng)的(de)主(zhu)要動力,然而從8月中(zhong)旬開始,22個省市豬(zhu)(zhu)肉(rou)(rou)價(jia)(jia)格開始環(huan)比(bi)回(hui)(hui)落(luo),而作(zuo)為豬(zhu)(zhu)肉(rou)(rou)價(jia)(jia)格先(xian)導指(zhi)標的(de)仔豬(zhu)(zhu)與(yu)生豬(zhu)(zhu)價(jia)(jia)格比(bi)從7月初即(ji)開始回(hui)(hui)落(luo),顯示(shi)未來豬(zhu)(zhu)肉(rou)(rou)價(jia)(jia)格上(shang)漲(zhang)空間(jian)有(you)限(xian),CPI或將(jiang)繼續維持(chi)相對弱勢格局。
3、大宗商(shang)品(pin)(pin)價格(ge)(ge)下(xia)(xia)跌(die)(die)帶動工(gong)業品(pin)(pin)通(tong)縮(suo)繼續(xu)顯著加劇。8月PPI環(huan)比(bi)(bi)下(xia)(xia)跌(die)(die)0.8%,較去(qu)(qu)年同期擴大0.6個(ge)百分點(dian)。大宗商(shang)品(pin)(pin)價格(ge)(ge)再(zai)度下(xia)(xia)跌(die)(die)帶動PPI跌(die)(die)幅(fu)加深,石油和天然(ran)氣開采業、石油加工(gong)、黑(hei)色金屬冶(ye)煉和延壓加工(gong)、煤炭等工(gong)業品(pin)(pin)價格(ge)(ge)環(huan)比(bi)(bi)分別(bie)下(xia)(xia)跌(die)(die)5.7%、6.1%、1.3%和1.7%,帶動PPI環(huan)比(bi)(bi)下(xia)(xia)跌(die)(die)約0.5個(ge)百分點(dian)。隨(sui)著大宗商(shang)品(pin)(pin)價格(ge)(ge)企穩(wen)以及(ji)去(qu)(qu)年低基(ji)數效(xiao)應推動,PPI跌(die)(die)幅(fu)有望(wang)在未來幾個(ge)月逐步收窄。
4、通脹(zhang)上行(xing)(xing)(xing)不(bu)改(gai)貨(huo)幣政(zheng)(zheng)策(ce)(ce)(ce)寬松(song)(song)基調,經(jing)(jing)(jing)濟(ji)(ji)下(xia)行(xing)(xing)(xing)壓力之下(xia)全面(mian)寬松(song)(song)政(zheng)(zheng)策(ce)(ce)(ce)或持續加(jia)碼。雖然消費(fei)品(pin)通脹(zhang)有(you)所(suo)上行(xing)(xing)(xing),但不(bu)影響貨(huo)幣政(zheng)(zheng)策(ce)(ce)(ce)寬松(song)(song)基調。一(yi)方(fang)面(mian),豬肉(rou)價格(ge)到達高位(wei)情況下(xia)通脹(zhang)再度上行(xing)(xing)(xing)壓力有(you)限;另一(yi)方(fang)面(mian),央(yang)行(xing)(xing)(xing)在(zai)2季(ji)度貨(huo)幣政(zheng)(zheng)策(ce)(ce)(ce)執行(xing)(xing)(xing)報告(gao)中明確表示不(bu)針對單一(yi)商品(pin)調整貨(huo)幣政(zheng)(zheng)策(ce)(ce)(ce)。而工業品(pin)價格(ge)通縮加(jia)劇等指標顯示當前經(jing)(jing)(jing)濟(ji)(ji)依然面(mian)臨較大下(xia)行(xing)(xing)(xing)壓力,未來(lai)全面(mian)寬松(song)(song)的貨(huo)幣政(zheng)(zheng)策(ce)(ce)(ce)將持續加(jia)碼,通過多種(zhong)方(fang)式(shi)引(yin)導(dao)資金進入實體經(jing)(jing)(jing)濟(ji)(ji),擴大社會融資規模,推動經(jing)(jing)(jing)濟(ji)(ji)企穩回(hui)升。
中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)證(zheng)(zheng)網(wang)聲明(ming):凡本(ben)網(wang)注明(ming)“來源:中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國證(zheng)(zheng)券(quan)報(bao)·中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)證(zheng)(zheng)網(wang)”的所有作(zuo)品(pin),版權均屬于中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國證(zheng)(zheng)券(quan)報(bao)、中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)證(zheng)(zheng)網(wang)。中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國證(zheng)(zheng)券(quan)報(bao)·中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)證(zheng)(zheng)網(wang)與作(zuo)品(pin)作(zuo)者聯合聲明(ming),任何組織未經中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國證(zheng)(zheng)券(quan)報(bao)、中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)證(zheng)(zheng)網(wang)以及作(zuo)者書面授權不(bu)得轉(zhuan)載、摘編或利(li)用其它(ta)(ta)方(fang)式使用上述作(zuo)品(pin)。凡本(ben)網(wang)注明(ming)來源非中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國證(zheng)(zheng)券(quan)報(bao)·中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)證(zheng)(zheng)網(wang)的作(zuo)品(pin),均轉(zhuan)載自(zi)其它(ta)(ta)媒體,轉(zhuan)載目的在于更好(hao)服(fu)務讀者、傳遞(di)信息(xi)之需,并不(bu)代表本(ben)網(wang)贊同其觀點,本(ben)網(wang)亦不(bu)對其真實性負責,持異議(yi)者應(ying)與原(yuan)出處單位主張(zhang)權利(li)。
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