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中國宏觀經濟研究院能源研究所:上半年用電量超預期 凸顯三大亮點

劉麗靚中國證券報·中證網

  中證網訊 (記者 劉(liu)麗靚)8月(yue)(yue)(yue)5日,中國宏(hong)觀經濟(ji)研究院能(neng)源研究所發布的報(bao)告顯示,上半年,我國用(yong)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)整體(ti)態勢較好,增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)顯著(zhu)超出預期。月(yue)(yue)(yue)度用(yong)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)增(zeng)速由負轉正,持續回升(sheng)(sheng),5月(yue)(yue)(yue)和(he)6月(yue)(yue)(yue)分(fen)別同(tong)(tong)比增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)4.6%和(he)6.1%,分(fen)別超出2019年同(tong)(tong)期2.3個百分(fen)點和(he)0.6個百分(fen)點。二季(ji)度用(yong)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)同(tong)(tong)比增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)3.9%,增(zeng)速比一季(ji)度回升(sheng)(sheng)10.4個百分(fen)點。與(yu)世界(jie)其他主要國家用(yong)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)仍(reng)在下降(jiang)相比,我國一枝獨秀,顯示出經濟(ji)的韌性(xing)和(he)發展的活力,表(biao)現出三大(da)亮點。

  一(yi)(yi)是新(xin)(xin)興(xing)領(ling)域(yu)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)高(gao)(gao)速(su)(su)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang),經(jing)濟新(xin)(xin)動能快速(su)(su)發(fa)展(zhan)壯大(da)。一(yi)(yi)方(fang)(fang)面,網(wang)絡經(jing)濟用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)激(ji)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng),彰顯(xian)“互聯網(wang)+”和(he)“云經(jing)濟”強(qiang)大(da)動能。從供給端看(kan),上(shang)(shang)半年信息傳(chuan)輸/軟件和(he)信息技術(shu)服務業(ye)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)同(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)27.7%。其(qi)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong),互聯網(wang)數據服務業(ye)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)同(tong)比(bi)激(ji)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)71.6%,反(fan)映出線(xian)上(shang)(shang)教育、網(wang)絡會議等(deng)新(xin)(xin)方(fang)(fang)式正在快速(su)(su)普(pu)及(ji)。從需求(qiu)端看(kan),二(er)季(ji)度城鄉居(ju)民生活用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)同(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)12.2%,比(bi)2019年同(tong)期(qi)(qi)提升4.1個百分(fen)(fen)(fen)點(dian)。其(qi)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong),5月和(he)6月分(fen)(fen)(fen)別同(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)15.0%和(he)14.3%。隨著“云游故宮”“云音樂會”“云藝(yi)術(shu)展(zhan)”等(deng)新(xin)(xin)型互聯網(wang)旅游休閑方(fang)(fang)式紛(fen)紛(fen)涌(yong)現,“宅經(jing)濟”的巨大(da)潛力將(jiang)不斷釋放(fang)。另一(yi)(yi)方(fang)(fang)面,高(gao)(gao)技術(shu)行業(ye)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)強(qiang)勁(jing)反(fan)彈(dan),繼續引領(ling)工(gong)(gong)業(ye)高(gao)(gao)質量(liang)(liang)發(fa)展(zhan)。二(er)季(ji)度,高(gao)(gao)技術(shu)及(ji)裝備制(zhi)造(zao)業(ye)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)同(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)4.6%,超(chao)出工(gong)(gong)業(ye)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)約2個百分(fen)(fen)(fen)點(dian)。其(qi)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong),對比(bi)4月來看(kan),5月和(he)6月高(gao)(gao)技術(shu)行業(ye)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)同(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)分(fen)(fen)(fen)別快速(su)(su)反(fan)彈(dan)至5.4%和(he)8.4%,大(da)幅(fu)高(gao)(gao)出工(gong)(gong)業(ye)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)9.3個百分(fen)(fen)(fen)點(dian)和(he)10.8個百分(fen)(fen)(fen)點(dian)。由此可見,作(zuo)為“中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國制(zhi)造(zao)”的一(yi)(yi)股中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)堅力量(liang)(liang),高(gao)(gao)技術(shu)行業(ye)已擺脫前期(qi)(qi)疫情帶來的困境,重新(xin)(xin)回到快速(su)(su)發(fa)展(zhan)軌道上(shang)(shang)來,未來必將(jiang)繼續引領(ling)我國工(gong)(gong)業(ye)高(gao)(gao)質量(liang)(liang)發(fa)展(zhan)。

  二是(shi)消(xiao)(xiao)費(fei)品(pin)(pin)(pin)制(zhi)造(zao)(zao)(zao)業(ye)(ye)用電(dian)量持續(xu)回(hui)升(sheng),體現(xian)(xian)出國(guo)(guo)內(nei)(nei)消(xiao)(xiao)費(fei)穩(wen)步復蘇(su)態(tai)勢。二季度(du),消(xiao)(xiao)費(fei)品(pin)(pin)(pin)制(zhi)造(zao)(zao)(zao)業(ye)(ye)用電(dian)量環比增長46.1%;同比下降1.3%,降幅(fu)較(jiao)一季度(du)收窄18.6個百(bai)分(fen)點。其(qi)中(zhong),6月消(xiao)(xiao)費(fei)品(pin)(pin)(pin)制(zhi)造(zao)(zao)(zao)業(ye)(ye)用電(dian)量實(shi)現(xian)(xian)正增長,同比增加1.9%;部分(fen)行業(ye)(ye)用電(dian)量大幅(fu)回(hui)升(sheng),甚(shen)至(zhi)達(da)到兩位數增速。例如,主要立足于國(guo)(guo)內(nei)(nei)市(shi)場(chang)的食品(pin)(pin)(pin)制(zhi)造(zao)(zao)(zao)業(ye)(ye)、飲料制(zhi)造(zao)(zao)(zao)業(ye)(ye)、家(jia)具制(zhi)造(zao)(zao)(zao)業(ye)(ye)和煙草(cao)制(zhi)造(zao)(zao)(zao)業(ye)(ye)分(fen)別(bie)同比增長18.1%、10.0%、10.0%和8.2%。從短期看,盡管“中(zhong)國(guo)(guo)工(gong)廠”受外需疲(pi)軟拖累(lei),但(dan)是(shi)隨著生產(chan)生活恢復、跨省旅游解禁(jin),國(guo)(guo)內(nei)(nei)消(xiao)(xiao)費(fei)已呈現(xian)(xian)出穩(wen)步復蘇(su)態(tai)勢。從長期看,眾多百(bai)年老(lao)店和新銳品(pin)(pin)(pin)牌都在深耕本土(tu)市(shi)場(chang),合力打造(zao)(zao)(zao)“新國(guo)(guo)貨”。

  三是西(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)部地(di)區(qu)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)領(ling)(ling)漲(zhang)全國,西(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)部大(da)開發(fa)新(xin)(xin)格局順利起步(bu)。西(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)部地(di)區(qu)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)增(zeng)長(chang)引領(ling)(ling)全國,表明(ming)全面(mian)(mian)建成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)小康社會將圓滿完成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)。上半年(nian)(nian),西(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)部十二省(sheng)份用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)合計(ji)同比增(zeng)長(chang)2.9%,高(gao)出全國平均(jun)4.2個(ge)百分(fen)(fen)點。其中(zhong),云南、新(xin)(xin)疆(jiang)、甘(gan)肅、內(nei)蒙等用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)增(zeng)速(su)較(jiao)高(gao),均(jun)超過(guo)5%。尤(you)其二季度(du)以來,西(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)部地(di)區(qu)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)加速(su)反彈態勢更加顯(xian)著,4月(yue)、5月(yue)、6月(yue)分(fen)(fen)別增(zeng)長(chang)4.2%、5.9%和(he)7.0%。其中(zhong),6月(yue),西(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)藏(zang)、廣西(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)、四川、新(xin)(xin)疆(jiang)、云南、甘(gan)肅等用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)增(zeng)長(chang)均(jun)超過(guo)或接近10%;甘(gan)肅、重慶、陜西(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)、新(xin)(xin)疆(jiang)、青海、廣西(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)等六(liu)省(sheng)增(zeng)速(su)都高(gao)于(yu)去年(nian)(nian)同期。上半年(nian)(nian)西(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)部地(di)區(qu)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)的(de)快(kuai)速(su)增(zeng)長(chang),體現出西(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)部各省(sheng)份經濟活動(dong)和(he)社會發(fa)展的(de)強大(da)動(dong)力。在(zai)新(xin)(xin)時(shi)代推進西(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)部大(da)開發(fa)形(xing)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)新(xin)(xin)格局戰略(lve)的(de)指引下(xia),2020年(nian)(nian)西(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)部地(di)區(qu)必將與全國一道全面(mian)(mian)建成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)小康社會,步(bu)入高(gao)質量(liang)發(fa)展快(kuai)車道。

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