最近常(chang)被問及股(gu)市(shi)緣(yuan)何跌(die)跌(die)不休,答曰:過(guo)度融資。從股(gu)權分置的(de)制(zhi)度到“為國企脫困”的(de)政策,中國股(gu)市(shi)的(de)過(guo)度融資病就(jiu)像嬰兒的(de)胎記一樣,與生俱來,不成(cheng)年很難褪(tun)色。時至今日(ri),股(gu)市(shi)在孩提時的(de)毛病已(yi)經(jing)改(gai)了不少,但(dan)過(guo)度融資病卻有增無減。
前幾年(nian),我(wo)和業內人士(shi)就曾(ceng)經建(jian)議(yi)過股(gu)票(piao)發行量的(de)(de)(de)宏觀調控,當時被(bei)一些(xie)人批評為(wei)不(bu)懂股(gu)票(piao)發行。歐洲諺(yan)語(yu)曰:災(zai)難來臨不(bu)是因為(wei)無知,而(er)是因為(wei)我(wo)們(men)不(bu)知道自己無知。由(you)此演繹,我(wo)們(men)不(bu)知道的(de)(de)(de)無知是什么?是常(chang)識(shi)(shi)。天價(jia)鉆石若無限供給也會賣出(chu)白菜價(jia)!這(zhe)就是常(chang)識(shi)(shi)。證監會把擬上市公(gong)司(si)的(de)(de)(de)名(ming)單公(gong)示(shi)了(le),股(gu)市過度融資的(de)(de)(de)“胎記”一目了(le)然。監管者能做到公(gong)開透明需要極高的(de)(de)(de)勇氣,因為(wei)在股(gu)市不(bu)透明的(de)(de)(de)地(di)方必然藏(zang)污納垢,培育著骯臟的(de)(de)(de)尋租市場和卑鄙的(de)(de)(de)內幕交易。
股(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)票(piao)(piao)發(fa)行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)度從指標制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)到(dao)通(tong)道制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi),再(zai)到(dao)今天(tian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)保(bao)薦人+發(fa)審委,我們在(zai)監(jian)(jian)控(kong)上(shang)(shang)(shang)市(shi)公司(si)(si)(si)的(de)(de)(de)(de)品質方(fang)面(mian)進步(bu)了許(xu)多,但在(zai)股(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)票(piao)(piao)發(fa)行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)的(de)(de)(de)(de)量(liang)(liang)化管理上(shang)(shang)(shang)一(yi)(yi)(yi)直無(wu)章(zhang)可(ke)循。曾經有(you)(you)過“暫(zan)停(ting)”股(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)票(piao)(piao)發(fa)行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing),但眾所周知,“暫(zan)停(ting)”不(bu)是辦法(fa)(fa),這(zhe)(zhe)(zhe)好比道路交通(tong)規則一(yi)(yi)(yi)樣,“行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)”要有(you)(you)“行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)”規,“停(ting)”亦有(you)(you)“停(ting)”規,不(bu)能(neng)想停(ting)就停(ting),能(neng)發(fa)就發(fa)。證監(jian)(jian)會提(ti)前(qian)披(pi)露擬(ni)(ni)上(shang)(shang)(shang)市(shi)公司(si)(si)(si)信(xin)息只是第一(yi)(yi)(yi)步(bu),邁出了這(zhe)(zhe)(zhe)一(yi)(yi)(yi)步(bu),暗道成為(wei)(wei)陽關,下(xia)一(yi)(yi)(yi)步(bu)應該(gai)是讓(rang)股(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)票(piao)(piao)發(fa)行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)成為(wei)(wei)陽關大道,讓(rang)路上(shang)(shang)(shang)行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)人各行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)其是。《證券(quan)法(fa)(fa)》規定了股(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)票(piao)(piao)發(fa)行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)的(de)(de)(de)(de)核(he)準(zhun)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi),在(zai)發(fa)行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)核(he)準(zhun)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)原(yuan)(yuan)則下(xia),保(bao)薦人+發(fa)審委可(ke)以(yi)(yi)核(he)準(zhun)上(shang)(shang)(shang)市(shi)公司(si)(si)(si)的(de)(de)(de)(de)“質”,卻(que)無(wu)法(fa)(fa)約束上(shang)(shang)(shang)市(shi)融資(zi)(zi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)“量(liang)(liang)”,而人們口中常說的(de)(de)(de)(de)上(shang)(shang)(shang)市(shi)公司(si)(si)(si)“質量(liang)(liang)”包含“質”和(he)“量(liang)(liang)”的(de)(de)(de)(de)雙重約束。歐美股(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)票(piao)(piao)發(fa)行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)以(yi)(yi)注(zhu)冊(ce)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)為(wei)(wei)主,發(fa)行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)量(liang)(liang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)控(kong)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)由發(fa)行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)者(Issuer)自我控(kong)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi),所以(yi)(yi)監(jian)(jian)管機構(gou)沒(mei)有(you)(you)量(liang)(liang)化調控(kong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)問題。中國股(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)市(shi)不(bu)行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing),若沒(mei)有(you)(you)量(liang)(liang)化調控(kong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)機制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi),過度融資(zi)(zi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)原(yuan)(yuan)罪會讓(rang)股(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)市(shi)長(chang)期(qi)面(mian)臨“股(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)災”之危!作(zuo)為(wei)(wei)中國《證券(quan)法(fa)(fa)》修(xiu)訂案起草小組的(de)(de)(de)(de)成員之一(yi)(yi)(yi),我不(bu)會提(ti)出任(ren)何違(wei)反法(fa)(fa)律的(de)(de)(de)(de)建議,在(zai)股(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)票(piao)(piao)發(fa)行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)核(he)準(zhun)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)原(yuan)(yuan)則不(bu)變(bian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)前(qian)提(ti)下(xia),在(zai)此(ci)(ci)公開建議將股(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)票(piao)(piao)發(fa)行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)的(de)(de)(de)(de)核(he)準(zhun)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)升級為(wei)(wei)“兩級核(he)準(zhun)”,先(xian)核(he)準(zhun)發(fa)行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)資(zi)(zi)格(ge),再(zai)核(he)準(zhun)發(fa)行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)額度。在(zai)一(yi)(yi)(yi)級核(he)準(zhun)通(tong)過的(de)(de)(de)(de)擬(ni)(ni)上(shang)(shang)(shang)市(shi)公司(si)(si)(si)之中,再(zai)通(tong)過一(yi)(yi)(yi)個程序核(he)準(zhun)哪(na)家先(xian)上(shang)(shang)(shang)哪(na)家后上(shang)(shang)(shang),優(you)中擇優(you)必(bi)然(ran)優(you)上(shang)(shang)(shang)加(jia)優(you),這(zhe)(zhe)(zhe)必(bi)然(ran)會對投(tou)資(zi)(zi)人更(geng)有(you)(you)利。擬(ni)(ni)上(shang)(shang)(shang)市(shi)公司(si)(si)(si)受(shou)一(yi)(yi)(yi)些(xie)委屈,投(tou)資(zi)(zi)銀行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)賺錢的(de)(de)(de)(de)速度慢一(yi)(yi)(yi)些(xie),但從長(chang)期(qi)而言,市(shi)場參(can)與(yu)者都會因此(ci)(ci)獲利。若股(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)票(piao)(piao)的(de)(de)(de)(de)過度融資(zi)(zi)病(bing)把股(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)市(shi)摧(cui)垮了,竭澤而漁的(de)(de)(de)(de)后果將是參(can)與(yu)者的(de)(de)(de)(de)共同損(sun)失。
兩級核(he)準制的(de)(de)目的(de)(de)是(shi)要量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)化(hua)股票(piao)發(fa)行(xing),如何實現股票(piao)發(fa)行(xing)的(de)(de)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)化(hua)調(diao)控(kong)呢?最(zui)簡單的(de)(de)做法(fa)就(jiu)是(shi)發(fa)行(xing)規(gui)模與流通(tong)市(shi)(shi)值(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)掛鉤(gou),當然(ran)還有其他可以(yi)(yi)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)化(hua)的(de)(de)指標。掛鉤(gou)流通(tong)市(shi)(shi)值(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)的(de)(de)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)化(hua)發(fa)行(xing)可以(yi)(yi)具體到(dao)年度(du)(du)(du)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)化(hua)和(he)月(yue)度(du)(du)(du)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)化(hua),年度(du)(du)(du)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)化(hua)應(ying)該以(yi)(yi)流通(tong)市(shi)(shi)值(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)的(de)(de)5%為上(shang)限(最(zui)多不能超過10%!)。擬(ni)上(shang)市(shi)(shi)公(gong)司(si)的(de)(de)家數和(he)融(rong)資(zi)規(gui)模可以(yi)(yi)計算出一(yi)(yi)個權數,掛鉤(gou)流通(tong)市(shi)(shi)值(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)決定年度(du)(du)(du)或月(yue)度(du)(du)(du)的(de)(de)發(fa)行(xing)規(gui)模,就(jiu)可以(yi)(yi)避(bi)免過度(du)(du)(du)的(de)(de)行(xing)政干(gan)預(yu),自發(fa)形成市(shi)(shi)場(chang)化(hua)的(de)(de)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)化(hua)微調(diao)機制:在(zai)牛市(shi)(shi)之中,由(you)于(yu)流通(tong)市(shi)(shi)值(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)上(shang)升(sheng),發(fa)行(xing)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)自然(ran)增大(da);在(zai)熊(xiong)市(shi)(shi)之中,由(you)于(yu)流通(tong)市(shi)(shi)值(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)減少(shao),發(fa)行(xing)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)自然(ran)縮小。這就(jiu)可在(zai)一(yi)(yi)定程(cheng)度(du)(du)(du)上(shang)避(bi)免目前的(de)(de)市(shi)(shi)場(chang)亂象:一(yi)(yi)邊是(shi)擬(ni)上(shang)市(shi)(shi)公(gong)司(si)排隊(dui)融(rong)資(zi),一(yi)(yi)邊是(shi)股市(shi)(shi)投資(zi)人倉(cang)皇出逃(tao)。
量(liang)化股(gu)票(piao)(piao)發(fa)行(xing)的(de)(de)建議若能被采納,發(fa)審委核準過(guo)(guo)關的(de)(de)擬(ni)上市公司(si)(si)孰先(xian)孰后也不(bu)(bu)(bu)需要行(xing)政(zheng)干(gan)預。過(guo)(guo)會(hui)的(de)(de)公司(si)(si)可以(yi)(yi)同(tong)臺(tai)競價,價高者先(xian)發(fa),價低者后發(fa)或選擇(ze)放棄(qi),股(gu)票(piao)(piao)發(fa)行(xing)人(ren)(ren)的(de)(de)自我調節機(ji)制就會(hui)逐(zhu)漸成熟,因為不(bu)(bu)(bu)問價格高低一味圈錢的(de)(de)上市公司(si)(si)畢竟是(shi)少數。證券(quan)市場(chang)的(de)(de)靈魂是(shi)“分享”,是(shi)讓更多的(de)(de)人(ren)(ren)分享創(chuang)造財富的(de)(de)快樂!如果總是(shi)融(rong)資(zi)歡樂投資(zi)愁,市值擴(kuo)張(zhang)指(zhi)數降,這個游戲斷(duan)然不(bu)(bu)(bu)會(hui)長(chang)(chang)久。所以(yi)(yi),要返(fan)璞歸(gui)真(zhen)回歸(gui)常識,理(li)論是(shi)灰色(se)的(de)(de),生命之樹(shu)長(chang)(chang)青!
中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)證(zheng)(zheng)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)聲(sheng)明:凡本(ben)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)注明“來源:中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)證(zheng)(zheng)券報(bao)·中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)證(zheng)(zheng)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)”的(de)所有作(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)品,版權(quan)均屬于中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)證(zheng)(zheng)券報(bao)、中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)證(zheng)(zheng)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)。中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)證(zheng)(zheng)券報(bao)·中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)證(zheng)(zheng)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)與(yu)作(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)品作(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)者(zhe)聯合聲(sheng)明,任何組織未經中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)證(zheng)(zheng)券報(bao)、中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)證(zheng)(zheng)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)以及(ji)作(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)者(zhe)書(shu)面授(shou)權(quan)不(bu)得轉(zhuan)載、摘編(bian)或(huo)利用(yong)其(qi)它方式使用(yong)上述(shu)作(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)品。凡本(ben)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)注明來源非中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)證(zheng)(zheng)券報(bao)·中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)證(zheng)(zheng)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)的(de)作(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)品,均轉(zhuan)載自其(qi)它媒體,轉(zhuan)載目的(de)在于更好服務讀(du)者(zhe)、傳(chuan)遞信息之需,并不(bu)代(dai)表本(ben)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)贊同其(qi)觀點,本(ben)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)亦不(bu)對其(qi)真實性負(fu)責(ze),持異議者(zhe)應(ying)與(yu)原出處單位主張權(quan)利。
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