美國3月非農就(jiu)業人數大減,薪資增(zeng)速(su)乏(fa)善(shan)可陳,失業率停滯不前,令美元短(duan)期(qi)承壓(ya)。同時,荊(jing)棘叢生的中美貿易談判,雖然前景樂觀,但短(duan)期(qi)風險(xian)猶(you)存(cun),推升黃金避(bi)險(xian)需(xu)求,短(duan)期(qi)金價(jia)震(zhen)蕩偏強(qiang)的態勢有望延續(xu)。
需求端復蘇
中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)黃(huang)金(jin)協會統計(ji)數據顯(xian)(xian)示,2017年中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)累計(ji)生產黃(huang)金(jin)426噸(dun)(dun)(dun),與去年同(tong)期(qi)相比,減產27噸(dun)(dun)(dun),同(tong)比下降6%。其中(zhong)(zhong)礦產金(jin)完成369噸(dun)(dun)(dun),有(you)色(se)副產金(jin)完成57噸(dun)(dun)(dun)。特別(bie)是(shi)去年四季度,西北地區礦山受到寒冷天氣(qi)影響陸續停產,導(dao)致國(guo)外(wai)原料金(jin)進(jin)口增加,2017年進(jin)口原料金(jin)91噸(dun)(dun)(dun),同(tong)比增長(chang)11%。然而在(zai)黃(huang)金(jin)產量下降的同(tong)時(shi),2017年中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)黃(huang)金(jin)實際消費(fei)量為(wei)1089噸(dun)(dun)(dun),與去年同(tong)期(qi)相比增長(chang)9%。其中(zhong)(zhong)黃(huang)金(jin)飾品需求(qiu)呈(cheng)現較為(wei)明顯(xian)(xian)增長(chang),錄得(de)697噸(dun)(dun)(dun),同(tong)比增長(chang)10%。
2018年依然是黃(huang)(huang)金(jin)生產面臨較(jiao)大壓力(li)的一年,供(gong)(gong)(gong)給側(ce)改革(ge)堅定執行(xing),環保稅、資(zi)源稅陸續落地(di),以及生態(tai)(tai)保護區內礦業權(quan)退(tui)出(chu),黃(huang)(huang)金(jin)企業產能將持(chi)續壓縮,產量繼續下滑(hua)的概率加大。然而(er)黃(huang)(huang)金(jin)消費則(ze)出(chu)現了(le)持(chi)續性復蘇跡(ji)象,受到經濟良性擴張及收入改善消費升級影(ying)響,黃(huang)(huang)金(jin)飾品(pin)銷售持(chi)續回暖可期。實物金(jin)投資(zi)也有望(wang)隨著黃(huang)(huang)金(jin)保值增(zeng)值的投資(zi)屬(shu)性,被越來越多投資(zi)者認可,貯藏(zang)財富需求(qiu)增(zeng)加。總之,黃(huang)(huang)金(jin)供(gong)(gong)(gong)給端壓縮,需求(qiu)端穩步(bu)擴張的供(gong)(gong)(gong)不應(ying)求(qiu)態(tai)(tai)勢在2018年有望(wang)延續。
美國就業增勢趨緩
美(mei)國(guo)3月非農(nong)就業僅(jin)增長10.3萬,大幅低于預期(qi)的(de)18.5萬,雖(sui)然惡劣(lie)天氣是3月就業人數下(xia)降(jiang)的(de)主要(yao)原因,但也暗示了美(mei)國(guo)勞動(dong)力市場的(de)穩定(ding)性(xing)較(jiao)差。而且美(mei)國(guo)3月薪(xin)資增速也與預期(qi)一致(zhi),僅(jin)僅(jin)環(huan)比增加0.3%,并(bing)沒有(you)出(chu)現令人興奮的(de)亮點。再者美(mei)國(guo)3月失業率為4.1%,略高(gao)于預期(qi)的(de)4%,表明在(zai)已(yi)有(you)較(jiao)高(gao)的(de)就業基數下(xia),勞動(dong)參(can)與率很難進一步提升。
新增非農就業(ye)人數遠不及(ji)預期(qi),薪(xin)資增速乏善可陳,失業(ye)率原地踏步,表(biao)明美(mei)國(guo)(guo)勞動力(li)市場張力(li)下滑,如果再(zai)失去一(yi)個(ge)相(xiang)對寬松的(de)貨(huo)幣(bi)政(zheng)(zheng)策導(dao)向,美(mei)國(guo)(guo)經濟(ji)存在(zai)失速危險(xian)。并且需求擴張也需要較為寬松的(de)貨(huo)幣(bi)政(zheng)(zheng)策支(zhi)撐(cheng),所(suo)以漸(jian)進式加息和縮表(biao)在(zai)相(xiang)當長(chang)時期(qi)內不會改(gai)變,利于實現美(mei)聯儲(chu)預定的(de)經濟(ji)目標。同時史(shi)無(wu)前例的(de)稅(shui)改(gai)對整體經濟(ji)影(ying)響(xiang)仍(reng)難(nan)以判斷,相(xiang)對穩健的(de)貨(huo)幣(bi)政(zheng)(zheng)策仍(reng)是美(mei)國(guo)(guo)經濟(ji)持(chi)續(xu)擴張的(de)保障。
中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)證(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)聲明(ming)(ming):凡(fan)本網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)注(zhu)明(ming)(ming)“來源(yuan):中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)證(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)券(quan)(quan)報·中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)證(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)”的所有作(zuo)品(pin),版權均屬于中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)證(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)券(quan)(quan)報、中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)證(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)。中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)證(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)券(quan)(quan)報·中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)證(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)與(yu)作(zuo)品(pin)作(zuo)者聯(lian)合聲明(ming)(ming),任何組織未(wei)經(jing)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)證(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)券(quan)(quan)報、中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)證(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)以及(ji)作(zuo)者書(shu)面(mian)授權不(bu)得轉(zhuan)載(zai)、摘編或利(li)用其(qi)它方式使用上(shang)述作(zuo)品(pin)。凡(fan)本網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)注(zhu)明(ming)(ming)來源(yuan)非中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)證(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)券(quan)(quan)報·中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)證(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)的作(zuo)品(pin),均轉(zhuan)載(zai)自其(qi)它媒體,轉(zhuan)載(zai)目的在于更好服務讀者、傳遞信(xin)息之(zhi)需(xu),并不(bu)代表本網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)贊同其(qi)觀點(dian),本網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)亦不(bu)對其(qi)真(zhen)實性負責,持異(yi)議(yi)者應與(yu)原出處(chu)單位主張權利(li)。
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