截至目前(qian)，A股五大(da)(da)上(shang)市險(xian)(xian)(xian)企(qi)(qi)皆已發布前(qian)四(si)個(ge)月(yue)原保(bao)(bao)險(xian)(xian)(xian)保(bao)(bao)費收(shou)入(ru)(ru)。五大(da)(da)險(xian)(xian)(xian)企(qi)(qi)共取(qu)得保(bao)(bao)費收(shou)入(ru)(ru)約1.13萬(wan)億元，同比增(zeng)長(chang)1.44%。整體來看，目前(qian)險(xian)(xian)(xian)企(qi)(qi)在負(fu)債端仍有較大(da)(da)壓(ya)力，人(ren)身險(xian)(xian)(xian)新(xin)單保(bao)(bao)費增(zeng)長(chang)乏(fa)力；財產險(xian)(xian)(xian)業務主要(yao)受車險(xian)(xian)(xian)綜合改(gai)革(ge)影響導致保(bao)(bao)費下滑，但非車險(xian)(xian)(xian)業務增(zeng)長(chang)較快。

　　具體(ti)來看，上(shang)市險(xian)企的人(ren)身險(xian)業(ye)務繼續(xu)分化。1-4月份，新華保(bao)(bao)險(xian)取(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)得(de)(de)保(bao)(bao)費約736.6億(yi)元(yuan)，同比(bi)上(shang)漲7.39%；中國人(ren)壽(shou)(shou)取(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)得(de)(de)保(bao)(bao)費3530.0億(yi)元(yuan)，同比(bi)增加4.59%；太保(bao)(bao)壽(shou)(shou)險(xian)取(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)得(de)(de)保(bao)(bao)費1073.3億(yi)元(yuan)，同比(bi)增加4.45%；人(ren)保(bao)(bao)壽(shou)(shou)險(xian)取(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)得(de)(de)保(bao)(bao)費539.55億(yi)元(yuan)，同比(bi)下降6.9%；平安壽(shou)(shou)險(xian)取(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)得(de)(de)保(bao)(bao)費2012.4億(yi)元(yuan)，同比(bi)下降-4.2%。

　　中信建(jian)投在(zai)研報中指(zhi)出，上市(shi)險企(qi)(qi)壽(shou)險新(xin)(xin)單價(jia)(jia)值(zhi)及(ji)代(dai)(dai)理(li)人(ren)增員仍有(you)(you)壓力。一季(ji)(ji)度主要上市(shi)險企(qi)(qi)得(de)益于提前啟動“開門紅”以(yi)及(ji)重疾(ji)產品集中投保(bao)(bao)，新(xin)(xin)單保(bao)(bao)費實(shi)現高速(su)(su)增長(chang)。二季(ji)(ji)度以(yi)來(lai)，險企(qi)(qi)短期(qi)(qi)承壓，保(bao)(bao)費增速(su)(su)呈下降趨(qu)勢。二季(ji)(ji)度，部分險企(qi)(qi)有(you)(you)清虛(xu)疊加(jia)增員計(ji)劃，擬以(yi)高質量(liang)代(dai)(dai)理(li)人(ren)替換低產能人(ren)群，通過代(dai)(dai)理(li)人(ren)結構升(sheng)級推(tui)動隊伍健康發展，但目前來(lai)看以(yi)質補量(liang)的價(jia)(jia)值(zhi)缺(que)口有(you)(you)壓力。與此同時，短期(qi)(qi)健康險監管趨(qu)嚴(yan)，多款產品整頓(dun)或停售，預期(qi)(qi)短期(qi)(qi)內對(dui)新(xin)(xin)單表現有(you)(you)持續影(ying)響(xiang)，長(chang)期(qi)(qi)看，對(dui)主營長(chang)期(qi)(qi)險業務的壽(shou)險公司影(ying)響(xiang)較小。

　　上市險(xian)(xian)(xian)企(qi)的(de)(de)財(cai)險(xian)(xian)(xian)業務也呈分化(hua)狀態。1-4月份(fen)，太保(bao)財(cai)險(xian)(xian)(xian)、人(ren)保(bao)財(cai)險(xian)(xian)(xian)和平安財(cai)險(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)原保(bao)險(xian)(xian)(xian)保(bao)費(fei)同(tong)比分別增長9.77%、2.82%以及-9.25%。海通(tong)證(zheng)券(quan)認為，預計二(er)季(ji)度(du)(du)(du)車(che)險(xian)(xian)(xian)增速(su)將持(chi)續(xu)承(cheng)壓，除車(che)險(xian)(xian)(xian)綜改(gai)帶來的(de)(de)車(che)均保(bao)費(fei)承(cheng)壓因(yin)(yin)素外，2020年(nian)二(er)季(ji)度(du)(du)(du)基數較(jiao)(jiao)高也是重要(yao)原因(yin)(yin)。去年(nian)二(er)季(ji)度(du)(du)(du)，乘用車(che)銷量顯著回暖(nuan)、且一季(ji)度(du)(du)(du)受(shou)疫情影響延期(qi)(qi)續(xu)保(bao)的(de)(de)保(bao)單逐步(bu)恢復(fu)保(bao)費(fei)繳納(na)，因(yin)(yin)此基數較(jiao)(jiao)高。海通(tong)證(zheng)券(quan)認為，車(che)險(xian)(xian)(xian)綜合改(gai)革(ge)促進市場優勝劣汰，預計龍頭(tou)保(bao)費(fei)增速(su)雖短(duan)期(qi)(qi)不及中(zhong)小險(xian)(xian)(xian)企(qi)，但(dan)業務質地較(jiao)(jiao)好，車(che)險(xian)(xian)(xian)業務中(zhong)低賠付率(lv)(lv)的(de)(de)家自車(che)占比較(jiao)(jiao)高、渠道費(fei)率(lv)(lv)可控(kong)，這些都(dou)將使得龍頭(tou)盈(ying)利空(kong)間(jian)遠(yuan)超中(zhong)小險(xian)(xian)(xian)企(qi)，預計中(zhong)長期(qi)(qi)行業集(ji)中(zhong)度(du)(du)(du)將進一步(bu)提升，利好龍頭(tou)險(xian)(xian)(xian)企(qi)。

　　盡管(guan)目(mu)前上(shang)(shang)市(shi)險(xian)(xian)企(qi)在負(fu)債端仍(reng)面臨較大(da)壓力，但(dan)多數券商仍(reng)看(kan)好其布局機會，主要基于(yu)兩點，一(yi)是(shi)估(gu)值(zhi)處于(yu)低位，二是(shi)資(zi)(zi)產端表現(xian)較好。從趨勢上(shang)(shang)看(kan)，車險(xian)(xian)綜改雖(sui)短期(qi)(qi)對車險(xian)(xian)保費有所(suo)沖擊，但(dan)遠好于(yu)市(shi)場(chang)預(yu)期(qi)(qi)。隨(sui)(sui)著(zhu)綜改塵埃(ai)落(luo)定，行(xing)業(ye)(ye)競爭(zheng)格局將全面得到優(you)化(hua)，部分中小(xiao)財險(xian)(xian)公司或將退出車險(xian)(xian)市(shi)場(chang)，而龍頭險(xian)(xian)企(qi)將深度受(shou)益，進一(yi)步強化(hua)規模(mo)、渠(qu)道、品牌優(you)勢，打(da)造競爭(zheng)壁壘(lei)。從人身險(xian)(xian)行(xing)業(ye)(ye)來看(kan)，行(xing)業(ye)(ye)短期(qi)(qi)因(yin)開門紅步入尾(wei)聲+新重(zhong)疾險(xian)(xian)產品仍(reng)處于(yu)消化(hua)期(qi)(qi)，負(fu)債端有所(suo)承壓，但(dan)長(chang)期(qi)(qi)來看(kan)，重(zhong)疾險(xian)(xian)仍(reng)有較大(da)市(shi)場(chang)，行(xing)業(ye)(ye)資(zi)(zi)產和負(fu)債兩端也將迎來趨勢性改善，隨(sui)(sui)著(zhu)二季度需求的回暖，加上(shang)(shang)代理人產能(neng)釋放驅動(dong)負(fu)債端改善，其配(pei)置價值(zhi)將逐漸顯現(xian)。