上周市場沖高回落,滬指(zhi)周線六(liu)連陽,小(xiao)盤股底部回穩。近期市場接連上揚(yang)權重股帶動的(de)沖高行情,市場“二八”格局明顯,風格轉(zhuan)換(huan)卻始終未能(neng)展(zhan)現(xian),伴(ban)隨指(zhi)數(shu)沖高,兩市多(duo)數(shu)板塊個股并未合力同(tong)步上揚(yang),滯漲(zhang)及率先調(diao)整(zheng)仍較為普遍,伴(ban)隨后半周銀行、地產指(zhi)數(shu)盤中震蕩(dang)加劇(ju),市場短時高位(wei)回抽(chou)整(zheng)理的(de)可能(neng)性正在加大(da)。操作上,六(liu)成持倉(cang)即(ji)可,持股防御(yu)性應有提(ti)升。
盤(pan)面(mian)顯(xian)示,上(shang)周(zhou)金融地產拉(la)升對(dui)指(zhi)數(shu)(shu)(shu)明顯(xian)。觀察兩市,金融地產為代(dai)表的(de)單(dan)一(yi)權重(zhong),在(zai)上(shang)周(zhou)指(zhi)數(shu)(shu)(shu)創(chuang)(chuang)新(xin)高的(de)過程中(zhong)(zhong)表現(xian)突出(chu)。其中(zhong)(zhong),銀行、地產、石油指(zhi)數(shu)(shu)(shu)周(zhou)線(xian)五連(lian)陽(yang)(yang),券(quan)商指(zhi)數(shu)(shu)(shu)周(zhou)線(xian)四連(lian)陽(yang)(yang),釀(niang)酒、旅(lv)游、交運和(he)(he)食品飲料(liao)指(zhi)數(shu)(shu)(shu)周(zhou)線(xian)處(chu)于(yu)上(shang)行通道(dao),其他板(ban)(ban)(ban)塊(kuai)指(zhi)數(shu)(shu)(shu)包括題材概念股則并無更(geng)強(qiang)的(de)突出(chu)表現(xian)。市場在(zai)節節攀升的(de)反彈行情中(zhong)(zhong),更(geng)多以估值回補的(de)板(ban)(ban)(ban)塊(kuai)補漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang),以及隨后板(ban)(ban)(ban)塊(kuai)內(nei)超跌個股補漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)為主(zhu)。重(zhong)要的(de)是,除了兩市行業板(ban)(ban)(ban)塊(kuai)的(de)補漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)行情,中(zhong)(zhong)小創(chuang)(chuang)品種依然處(chu)于(yu)低位(wei)階段,中(zhong)(zhong)小板(ban)(ban)(ban)、創(chuang)(chuang)業板(ban)(ban)(ban)綜(zong)指(zhi)也(ye)僅(jin)在(zai)上(shang)周(zhou)首度(du)出(chu)現(xian)周(zhou)線(xian)止跌反彈的(de)小陽(yang)(yang)線(xian),同期(qi)(qi)滬深300指(zhi)數(shu)(shu)(shu)周(zhou)線(xian)四連(lian)陽(yang)(yang)。中(zhong)(zhong)小板(ban)(ban)(ban)、創(chuang)(chuang)業板(ban)(ban)(ban)綜(zong)指(zhi)月內(nei)漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)幅分(fen)別(bie)為0.96%和(he)(he)1.21%,同期(qi)(qi)滬深300指(zhi)數(shu)(shu)(shu)月內(nei)漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)幅8.69%。因而,指(zhi)數(shu)(shu)(shu)的(de)漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)勢不斷,實際(ji)以少數(shu)(shu)(shu)板(ban)(ban)(ban)塊(kuai)補漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)推(tui)動為主(zhu),后期(qi)(qi)反彈的(de)延展性(xing)難免受抑。
進入本周(zhou)市(shi)場,權重股表現是兩市(shi)短(duan)時格局(ju)的(de)主要(yao)風向標。基于前期市(shi)場重指(zhi)數(shu)(shu)、輕個股的(de)表現,金融、地產和(he)石油指(zhi)數(shu)(shu)的(de)補漲(zhang)延續需要(yao)關(guan)注(zhu),此(ci)外水(shui)泥建筑、造紙印(yin)刷和(he)交(jiao)通運輸等二、三線類(lei)板塊,有(you)望(wang)在權重股高位調整加劇過(guo)程中,起(qi)到局(ju)部熱(re)點活躍的(de)作用(yong),但此(ci)類(lei)周(zhou)期性品種對指(zhi)數(shu)(shu)拉動作用(yong)有(you)限,且一旦出現于兩市(shi)漲(zhang)幅前列,往往說(shuo)明場內資(zi)金防御性提升,指(zhi)數(shu)(shu)高位整理的(de)必要(yao)也會隨即而至,上周(zhou)五市(shi)場盤中震(zhen)蕩已有(you)此(ci)跡象。
總體看,當(dang)(dang)前(qian)(qian)市場環境較為(wei)穩定,經濟(ji)數據平(ping)穩,1月(yue)解禁峰值的渡(du)過,及隨后年報預(yu)增帶來的業績預(yu)期(qi)(qi)行(xing)情,對(dui)指數中(zhong)期(qi)(qi)反彈推動(dong)作用(yong)依舊存在,不過對(dui)于持續拉升(sheng)后的當(dang)(dang)前(qian)(qian)市場,單一領漲板塊(kuai)和強勢股高(gao)位(wei)振幅加劇(ju),都易兩(liang)市觸發短時調(diao)整(zheng)出現,預(yu)計(ji)滬(hu)指有回補上周(zhou)一跳空缺口(kou)的必要。操作策略方面,對(dui)持倉個股適時調(diao)整(zheng),高(gao)位(wei)滯漲品種(zhong)先行(xing)離場,關注績優且中(zhong)期(qi)(qi)有效突破的二線藍籌。
本周趨勢 看跌
中線趨勢 看漲
本周區間 3430點(dian)(dian)-3539點(dian)(dian)
本(ben)周(zhou)熱點 酒(jiu)店餐飲、交通設施
本周焦點 銀行、地產、石(shi)油(you)
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