昨(zuo)日,兩市主要指數(shu)整體回升,主力資金(jin)也逆轉了(le)此前凈流(liu)出(chu)態勢。值得(de)一提的是,4月(yue)以來(lai)兩市連續多(duo)日出(chu)現主力凈流(liu)出(chu),因而昨(zuo)日主力凈流(liu)入意義頗大,說(shuo)明各路資金(jin)已再度(du)形成一定(ding)共識。
分析人士指出(chu),昨(zuo)日兩(liang)(liang)市回升中,板塊(kuai)方面(mian)熱點紛呈,市場熱度(du)也由于盤(pan)面(mian)走高再度(du)改(gai)善。在這(zhe)背后,較為敏感的杠桿資金似(si)乎再度(du)占得先機,最新兩(liang)(liang)融(rong)數(shu)據(ju)顯示,在兩(liang)(liang)個交易日短暫回落后,本周一兩(liang)(liang)融(rong)余額率先反彈,為昨(zuo)日反攻吹響了號(hao)角。而從資金整體預(yu)期(qi)(qi)來看,盤(pan)面(mian)長期(qi)(qi)向好(hao)趨(qu)勢顯然未變(bian)。
各路資金再聚共識
昨日,兩市低開高走,截(jie)至收(shou)盤,各主(zhu)要指數均大幅(fu)收(shou)漲。盤面中,板塊方面也(ye)是熱點紛呈(cheng),頗為精(jing)彩。
在這樣的(de)背(bei)景下(xia),兩(liang)市(shi)主力(li)(li)資(zi)金出(chu)(chu)現(xian)了近(jin)期少見的(de)凈(jing)流(liu)入(ru)。Wind數(shu)據(ju)顯(xian)示,4月(yue)16日(ri)主力(li)(li)資(zi)金逆轉前一日(ri)凈(jing)流(liu)出(chu)(chu)態勢,出(chu)(chu)現(xian)94.90億(yi)元凈(jing)流(liu)入(ru)。而兩(liang)融余額(e)也在前一交易(yi)(yi)日(ri)率先止穩反彈。最新數(shu)據(ju)顯(xian)示,在短短兩(liang)個交易(yi)(yi)日(ri)回落過后,兩(liang)融余額(e)回升(sheng)23.73億(yi)元,最新報9684.75億(yi)元;不難發現(xian),在當前指(zhi)數(shu)面臨重要壓力(li)(li)位(wei)置背(bei)景下(xia),場內外資(zi)金在當前點位(wei)上(shang)似乎再度形成一定共(gong)識。
盤面(mian)來(lai)看,一方面(mian),昨日兩市大漲(zhang)似乎已使本周一調整(zheng)過程(cheng)中積(ji)聚的謹慎情(qing)緒快(kuai)速消(xiao)退;但另一方面(mian),短暫的凈(jing)(jing)流入(ru)(ru)態(tai)勢也仍難以(yi)徹底點(dian)燃場內資(zi)(zi)(zi)金(jin)做多情(qing)緒。從這一角度來(lai)看,后(hou)期投(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)者仍需繼(ji)續觀察凈(jing)(jing)流入(ru)(ru)態(tai)勢能否持續。不過從最新兩融(rong)數據來(lai)看,資(zi)(zi)(zi)金(jin)整(zheng)體較為(wei)樂觀。分析人(ren)士表示,伴隨(sui)著(zhu)昨日盤面(mian)快(kuai)速回升,投(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)者情(qing)緒整(zheng)體改善。因而,后(hou)市投(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)者積(ji)極可為(wei)。
就資(zi)金(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)在(zai)板(ban)塊(kuai)方面進出(chu)(chu)而(er)言,Wind數據顯(xian)示(shi),昨日,28個申萬一級行業主力(li)資(zi)金(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)凈流(liu)入(ru)的達到半數。凈流(liu)入(ru)金(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)額居(ju)前的有通信、銀(yin)行、電子、有色金(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)屬和(he)非銀(yin)金(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)融(rong)板(ban)塊(kuai),凈流(liu)入(ru)金(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)額均在(zai)10億元上方;不過昨日主力(li)資(zi)金(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)凈流(liu)出(chu)(chu)的板(ban)塊(kuai)也(ye)有14個,其中農林牧漁、化工、醫藥生物和(he)房地(di)產(chan)板(ban)塊(kuai)的凈流(liu)出(chu)(chu)金(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)額也(ye)均超過10億元。相較而(er)言,從融(rong)資(zi)加(jia)倉力(li)度來看,杠桿資(zi)金(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)相對更為看好(hao)后市;最新(xin)數據顯(xian)示(shi),本周一獲得融(rong)資(zi)加(jia)倉的板(ban)塊(kuai)達到21個。
低估值龍頭或超額表現
昨日兩市再現凈(jing)流入態(tai)勢(shi)表明,隨著(zhu)此前行情震蕩(dang)調整結束(shu),謹慎預期大幅消化。
不過,分析(xi)人士也指出,場內主力資(zi)金(jin)短(duan)期(qi)行為(wei)(wei)或多或少帶有“順水推舟”意(yi)味,因而其事實上具備的行情(qing)前(qian)瞻(zhan)意(yi)義較(jiao)為(wei)(wei)有限。但(dan)從較(jiao)為(wei)(wei)敏感的杠(gang)桿資(zi)金(jin)持續加倉動向來看,當(dang)前(qian)市(shi)場中(zhong)多方顯(xian)(xian)然(ran)占據顯(xian)(xian)著優勢(shi)。后(hou)市(shi)主力資(zi)金(jin)凈流入規模和持續時間(jian)以及(ji)兩融余額回升勢(shi)頭(tou)能(neng)否延續,仍(reng)值得繼續關注(zhu)。但(dan)整(zheng)體來看,后(hou)市(shi)A股上行仍(reng)有空間(jian)。
中(zhong)金(jin)公司指(zhi)出(chu),后(hou)市成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)交(jiao)分布(bu)將(jiang)是(shi)(shi)關(guan)(guan)鍵(jian)(jian)。從資(zi)(zi)(zi)金(jin)和(he)籌碼結(jie)(jie)構(gou)來看,今年以(yi)來,不同(tong)屬性資(zi)(zi)(zi)金(jin)逐步回歸(gui)是(shi)(shi)A股(gu)走強的直接原因(yin)。與(yu)此相對應,兩市成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)交(jiao)實(shi)現(xian)了(le)由日(ri)均3000億(yi)元(yuan)至6000億(yi)元(yuan)再(zai)到(dao)萬(wan)億(yi)元(yuan)的提升。不過,3月(yue)初以(yi)來達到(dao)萬(wan)億(yi)元(yuan)水(shui)平后(hou),日(ri)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)交(jiao)基本(ben)穩定(ding)在(zai)6000億(yi)元(yuan)至萬(wan)億(yi)元(yuan)之間,成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)交(jiao)額更多隨市場漲跌波(bo)動(dong)(dong),在(zai)4月(yue)初反彈過程中(zhong),指(zhi)數(shu)價格雖創出(chu)新高(gao),但成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)交(jiao)并未(wei)超3月(yue)高(gao)點,增(zeng)量資(zi)(zi)(zi)金(jin)流入放緩,市場基本(ben)實(shi)現(xian)了(le)在(zai)這一博弈(yi)(yi)結(jie)(jie)構(gou)下新的動(dong)(dong)態(tai)均衡。當市場重回存量博弈(yi)(yi)時,成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)交(jiao)分布(bu)將(jiang)是(shi)(shi)決定(ding)后(hou)市的關(guan)(guan)鍵(jian)(jian)。當前成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)交(jiao)分化度指(zhi)標(biao)仍在(zai)較(jiao)低水(shui)平波(bo)動(dong)(dong),市場仍需找到(dao)可持續的、投資(zi)(zi)(zi)者(zhe)一致(zhi)認可的主線,才能(neng)實(shi)現(xian)上行動(dong)(dong)能(neng)的積累。
而策略方面,該機(ji)構強調(diao),更(geng)大周期上看(kan),指(zhi)數(shu)從2015年以來大級別調(diao)整(zheng)的(de)(de)下行結構已經(jing)完(wan)整(zheng),因此(ci)即使短(duan)期出現(xian)調(diao)整(zheng),指(zhi)數(shu)也(ye)(ye)很難回到前期低點;對配(pei)置型(xing)機(ji)構來說(shuo),短(duan)期調(diao)整(zheng)更(geng)多是買(mai)入(ru)機(ji)會。風格上,近期宏觀(guan)數(shu)據在(zai)(zai)短(duan)期內(nei)將(jiang)強化增(zeng)長預期修(xiu)復的(de)(de)邏輯,這也(ye)(ye)將(jiang)使與(yu)宏觀(guan)增(zeng)長相關性更(geng)高,在(zai)(zai)本輪行情中(zhong)反彈幅度(du)不(bu)大、估(gu)值(zhi)(zhi)仍不(bu)算高的(de)(de)資產(chan)更(geng)加受益(yi),低估(gu)值(zhi)(zhi)龍頭或有超額表(biao)現(xian)。
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