【研究(jiu)報告內容摘要】

　　公司發(fa)布2018年(nian)中報業績預(yu)告,預(yu)計2018H1歸(gui)屬凈利(li)潤(run)10.92~13.65億(yi)元,同比增(zeng)長60%~100%。

　　公(gong)司定(ding)價(jia)權(quan)(quan)凸(tu)顯,上(shang)半(ban)(ban)年(nian)利潤高速增長(chang)。公(gong)司預計(ji)2018H1歸屬凈(jing)利潤10.92~13.65億元(yuan),同(tong)比(bi)增長(chang)60%~100%;其(qi)中2018Q2歸屬凈(jing)利潤6.02-8.75億元(yuan),同(tong)比(bi)增長(chang)13%~64%。在成(cheng)本(廢紙、煤炭(tan)等價(jia)格)大(da)幅上(shang)漲的情(qing)況下(xia),公(gong)司利潤高速增長(chang)主要來自去年(nian)下(xia)半(ban)(ban)年(nian)(超越成(cheng)本)提(ti)價(jia)盈利中樞上(shang)移,而公(gong)司定(ding)價(jia)權(quan)(quan)顯現(xian)背后主要有三方面(mian)原(yuan)因:一是公(gong)司市場(chang)占有率高(60%);二是在供(gong)給側改革和環(huan)保(bao)高壓影(ying)響(xiang)下(xia)落后產(chan)能開(kai)始退出;三是2016年(nian)底(di)少數股權(quan)(quan)注入使得公(gong)司內部機制(zhi)理順。我們(men)判斷這(zhe)些(xie)因素中期仍將有利于公(gong)司定(ding)價(jia)能力(li)。

　　繼續擴張(zhang)(zhang)擠壓對(dui)手和(he)加強區(qu)域控制(zhi)力。一方(fang)面公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)在2017年(nian)(nian)年(nian)(nian)報披(pi)露了布局21條生(sheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)線(xian)的計劃,預計全部建(jian)成投(tou)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)后(hou)石膏(gao)板總產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)能(neng)(neng)(neng)達(da)到30億(yi)平(ping)方(fang)米(mi);另(ling)一方(fang)面公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)2018年(nian)(nian)6月15日發布公(gong)(gong)(gong)告,擬與山東萬(wan)(wan)佳(jia)共(gong)同(tong)出(chu)資設立合資公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si),分(fen)別對(dui)安(an)徽萬(wan)(wan)佳(jia)、平(ping)邑萬(wan)(wan)佳(jia)進行增(zeng)(zeng)資,并(bing)收購(gou)(gou)宣城(cheng)萬(wan)(wan)佳(jia)100%股權(quan),此次投(tou)資并(bing)購(gou)(gou)完(wan)成后(hou)公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)將新(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)1.9億(yi)平(ping)方(fang)米(mi)的石膏(gao)板產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(包括已投(tou)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)能(neng)(neng)(neng)和(he)在建(jian)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)能(neng)(neng)(neng),其(qi)中(zhong)公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)權(quan)益產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)能(neng)(neng)(neng)約1.03億(yi)平(ping)方(fang)米(mi)),收購(gou)(gou)完(wan)成后(hou)公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)在華東市(shi)(shi)場(chang)的話語權(quan)將顯著增(zeng)(zeng)強,公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)近年(nian)(nian)繼續保持產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)能(neng)(neng)(neng)擴張(zhang)(zhang)(擠壓對(dui)手)和(he)加強區(qu)域市(shi)(shi)場(chang)的控制(zhi)力,為(wei)加強中(zhong)期定價能(neng)(neng)(neng)力繼續做(zuo)準備(bei)。

　　鎖定(ding)股份回(hui)購(gou)(gou)注(zhu)銷(xiao)完(wan)成。根據(ju)協議(yi),若公(gong)司(si)年報審計機構確(que)認或有風險發(fa)生或實際發(fa)生損失(shi),則由公(gong)司(si)以1元(yuan)價格對該原泰山石膏少數股東部分鎖定(ding)股份進行(xing)回(hui)購(gou)(gou)并(bing)注(zhu)銷(xiao),并(bing)承擔或有風險損失(shi)。目前(qian)鎖定(ding)股份回(hui)購(gou)(gou)注(zhu)銷(xiao)完(wan)成,公(gong)司(si)總(zong)股本由17.89億(yi)股減少至16.90億(yi)股。

　　投資建議:維(wei)持“買(mai)入”評級。從中(zhong)長期(qi)來看,隨著(zhu)石膏(gao)板滲(shen)透率提升(住宅隔墻應用)和(he)厚板替代(dai)薄板,國內(nei)石膏(gao)板行業(ye)(ye)需求仍有增長空間;隨著(zhu)環保力(li)度加大(da)將加速行業(ye)(ye)內(nei)不規(gui)范小(xiao)企業(ye)(ye)出(chu)局,公(gong)司(si)憑(ping)借全國網絡化(hua)生(sheng)產布局,一(yi)家獨大(da),行業(ye)(ye)格局高度穩定,隨著(zhu)區域化(hua)市場(chang)控制力(li)持續加強(qiang)(qiang),公(gong)司(si)定價(jia)能力(li)也在逐步加強(qiang)(qiang);我們之前把(ba)公(gong)司(si)和(he)USG做(zuo)了詳(xiang)細對比分析,公(gong)司(si)中(zhong)長期(qi)已被低估。我們預計(ji)公(gong)司(si)2018-2020年(nian)EPS分別為1.66、2.13、2.66元/股(gu),按最新(xin)股(gu)價(jia)對應PE估值分別為11倍/9倍/7倍,維(wei)持“買(mai)入”評級。

　　風(feng)險(xian)提示:原材料價格大幅上漲、下游需求大幅下滑、行業產能擴(kuo)張(zhang)、美國訴訟影響擴(kuo)大、交(jiao)易不(bu)達預(yu)期。