研究報(bao)告內容摘要(yao)：

　　投資要點：

　　事件：公司(si)發布公告，對門店(dian)經營開(kai)支、存貨庫齡結構、募集(ji)資金投向的(de)“智(zhi)能化倉儲中心”等經營細節進行(xing)了詳細披露；大股東在鎖定期基礎上，追(zhui)加兩年(nian)不減(jian)持承(cheng)諾彰顯信(xin)心。

　　庫(ku)齡(ling)結(jie)(jie)構(gou)(gou)(gou)(gou)健康，一年內占比(bi)(bi)  76.6%處(chu)于行(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)領先水(shui)平(ping)(ping)。公(gong)司(si)(si)披露(lu)庫(ku)齡(ling)結(jie)(jie)構(gou)(gou)(gou)(gou)，2018  年存(cun)(cun)(cun)貨(huo)(huo)(huo)庫(ku)齡(ling)在  1  年內比(bi)(bi)例(li)為  76.6%，2  年內合計(ji)比(bi)(bi)例(li)為  95.5%，庫(ku)齡(ling)較短(duan)，產品結(jie)(jie)構(gou)(gou)(gou)(gou)良好，表明公(gong)司(si)(si)存(cun)(cun)(cun)貨(huo)(huo)(huo)的增加主要(yao)來(lai)源于新增渠道(dao)和單店業(ye)(ye)績的增加，公(gong)司(si)(si)存(cun)(cun)(cun)貨(huo)(huo)(huo)消化(hua)良好。從(cong)行(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)對(dui)比(bi)(bi)來(lai)看(kan)，2018  年服裝(zhuang)行(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)龍(long)頭公(gong)司(si)(si)中，庫(ku)齡(ling)  1  年內存(cun)(cun)(cun)貨(huo)(huo)(huo)余(yu)額占比(bi)(bi)情(qing)況包括：男裝(zhuang)龍(long)頭公(gong)司(si)(si)海瀾之家為  74.3%，九牧王為  66.5%，安正(zheng)時尚為  53.4%，太平(ping)(ping)鳥為  50.7%。我(wo)們認為公(gong)司(si)(si)當前的存(cun)(cun)(cun)貨(huo)(huo)(huo)結(jie)(jie)構(gou)(gou)(gou)(gou)健康程(cheng)度處(chu)于行(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)內領先水(shui)平(ping)(ping)、動銷(xiao)(xiao)通(tong)暢，存(cun)(cun)(cun)貨(huo)(huo)(huo)的庫(ku)齡(ling)較短(duan)基本處(chu)于適銷(xiao)(xiao)期，且(qie)擁有過(guo)季服裝(zhuang)銷(xiao)(xiao)售渠道(dao)，存(cun)(cun)(cun)貨(huo)(huo)(huo)跌價準(zhun)備的計(ji)提情(qing)況較為謹慎(shen)且(qie)充(chong)分。

　　終端渠道(dao)優(you)化升(sheng)級帶動(dong)店(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)效提(ti)升(sheng)，門(men)(men)(men)(men)(men)店(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)運(yun)營(ying)及(ji)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)修(xiu)費(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)用(yong)(yong)同步增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)表(biao)現(xian)合(he)理。1）優(you)化渠道(dao)升(sheng)級，新(xin)開(kai)店(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)數(shu)量(liang)大于(yu)(yu)凈(jing)開(kai)店(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)規(gui)模(mo)(mo)。公司(si)(si)(si)(si)近(jin)兩年來致(zhi)力于(yu)(yu)擴(kuo)大營(ying)銷網絡開(kai)新(xin)店(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)與(yu)店(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)鋪(pu)形象改(gai)造(zao)(zao)升(sheng)級并(bing)行(xing)(xing)，注重(zhong)精(jing)品店(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)和(he)大型體驗店(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)的(de)(de)打造(zao)(zao)，實施“調(diao)位置、擴(kuo)面積”的(de)(de)店(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)鋪(pu)改(gai)造(zao)(zao)計劃。從拓展(zhan)成(cheng)果來看，公司(si)(si)(si)(si)  2017、2018  年凈(jing)開(kai)門(men)(men)(men)(men)(men)店(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)數(shu)量(liang)分(fen)(fen)別為(wei)  50  家(jia)、112  家(jia)，新(xin)開(kai)門(men)(men)(men)(men)(men)店(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)數(shu)量(liang)分(fen)(fen)別為(wei)  97  家(jia)、154  家(jia)。通過(guo)不斷地優(you)化渠道(dao)結(jie)構，公司(si)(si)(si)(si)近(jin)年來有效地持(chi)續提(ti)升(sheng)了單店(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)銷售業績與(yu)平效產(chan)出，同店(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)收入增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)領跑行(xing)(xing)業。2）門(men)(men)(men)(men)(men)店(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)費(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)用(yong)(yong)伴(ban)隨規(gui)模(mo)(mo)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)。2017、2018  年公司(si)(si)(si)(si)門(men)(men)(men)(men)(men)店(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)運(yun)營(ying)費(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)用(yong)(yong)分(fen)(fen)別同比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)  23.30%、17.20%；裝(zhuang)(zhuang)飾裝(zhuang)(zhuang)修(xiu)費(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)用(yong)(yong)分(fen)(fen)別同比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)40.92%、13.47%，基(ji)本低于(yu)(yu)營(ying)業收入增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)，表(biao)明公司(si)(si)(si)(si)規(gui)模(mo)(mo)擴(kuo)張下(xia)成(cheng)本管控能(neng)力提(ti)升(sheng)。其中  2017  年裝(zhuang)(zhuang)飾裝(zhuang)(zhuang)修(xiu)費(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)用(yong)(yong)增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)較快，主要(yao)因為(wei)公司(si)(si)(si)(si)當年發力擴(kuo)大營(ying)銷網絡開(kai)新(xin)店(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)與(yu)店(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)鋪(pu)形象改(gai)造(zao)(zao)升(sheng)級，該項(xiang)費(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)用(yong)(yong)較  16  年迅速(su)(su)提(ti)升(sheng)，18  年增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)即回(hui)歸合(he)理水平。會計確認方面，公司(si)(si)(si)(si)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)修(xiu)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)飾費(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)主要(yao)包括直(zhi)營(ying)門(men)(men)(men)(men)(men)店(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)修(xiu)支(zhi)出、加盟門(men)(men)(men)(men)(men)店(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)修(xiu)支(zhi)持(chi)費(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)用(yong)(yong)兩項(xiang)。其中直(zhi)營(ying)門(men)(men)(men)(men)(men)店(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)費(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)用(yong)(yong)支(zhi)歸集于(yu)(yu)長(chang)(chang)期(qi)待(dai)攤費(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)用(yong)(yong)并(bing)分(fen)(fen)  3  年攤銷，加盟門(men)(men)(men)(men)(men)店(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)修(xiu)費(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)用(yong)(yong)計入當期(qi)損益，因此利(li)潤表(biao)中裝(zhuang)(zhuang)修(xiu)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)飾費(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)與(yu)長(chang)(chang)期(qi)待(dai)攤費(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)用(yong)(yong)中裝(zhuang)(zhuang)修(xiu)費(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)的(de)(de)新(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)部分(fen)(fen)理應存在(zai)一定差額。

　　建(jian)設智能化(hua)倉(cang)儲(chu)中心，布局長遠發展(zhan)，已完(wan)成(cheng)設計并(bing)開始進(jin)場建(jian)設。公(gong)司(si)擬投資  2.2  億元建(jian)設智能化(hua)倉(cang)儲(chu)中心，以減少公(gong)司(si)產品流(liu)通(tong)環(huan)節，降(jiang)低(di)運(yun)營成(cheng)本，進(jin)一(yi)步提升公(gong)司(si)盈利能力。公(gong)司(si)持續(xu)積(ji)極推(tui)進(jin)項目(mu)的進(jin)展(zhan)，目(mu)前項目(mu)已完(wan)成(cheng)前期(qi)設計工(gong)(gong)作，并(bing)已進(jin)場建(jian)設，支付樁已完(wan)工(gong)(gong)，后期(qi)會集中全部力量，促進(jin)項目(mu)的順利進(jin)行，并(bing)保障在規定的時間(jian)內(nei)完(wan)成(cheng)交付工(gong)(gong)作，推(tui)動“比音勒芬智能化(hua)倉(cang)儲(chu)中心”盡快投入使用(yong)，為發力長遠發展(zhan)打下堅實基礎。

　　公(gong)司(si)(si)是服飾(shi)行業內生增速(su)(su)領先(xian)的(de)(de)稀缺標的(de)(de)，實(shi)控人(ren)承諾(nuo)彰(zhang)顯信(xin)(xin)心，維持(chi)(chi)“買入”評級。公(gong)司(si)(si)實(shi)控人(ren)在(zai)上(shang)市后(hou)三年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)鎖定期(qi)(qi)內不(bu)(bu)減持(chi)(chi)的(de)(de)基礎上(shang)，追加承諾(nuo)鎖定期(qi)(qi)滿(man)后(hou)兩年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)不(bu)(bu)減持(chi)(chi)，彰(zhang)顯實(shi)控人(ren)長期(qi)(qi)發展(zhan)信(xin)(xin)心。公(gong)司(si)(si)卡位優質賽(sai)道打造護城河，主品(pin)牌渠道擴張節奏穩健、開(kai)店拓(tuo)(tuo)展(zhan)進(jin)行順利，門店店效表現(xian)領跑行業持(chi)(chi)續超預(yu)(yu)期(qi)(qi)，威(wei)尼(ni)斯品(pin)牌拓(tuo)(tuo)展(zhan)勢頭(tou)積極，第二(er)期(qi)(qi)員工持(chi)(chi)股計劃進(jin)一步彰(zhang)顯長期(qi)(qi)發展(zhan)信(xin)(xin)心。我(wo)們(men)(men)維持(chi)(chi)原預(yu)(yu)測，預(yu)(yu)計  19-21  年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)  EPS  為  1.3/1.8/2.2元，對(dui)應  19-21  年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)  PE  為  19/14/11  倍。我(wo)們(men)(men)預(yu)(yu)計公(gong)司(si)(si)未來三年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)凈利潤(run)復合增速(su)(su)超過  30%，給(gei)予  19  年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)  30  倍  PE  的(de)(de)目(mu)標估值，對(dui)應目(mu)標價(jia)  39.9  元，維持(chi)(chi)“買入”評級！