太平洋證券2018年(nian)A股中期策略報告指出,宏觀(guan)增速平臺已(yi)然切換,經(jing)濟(ji)質量提升,新經(jing)濟(ji)崛起初(chu)現,全年(nian)市(shi)場(chang)或將隨宏觀(guan)預期波動而(er)呈W型波動。價值藍籌與“新經(jing)濟(ji)概(gai)念(nian)股”均(jun)衡配(pei)置(zhi):底倉金融藍籌、周期巨頭(tou),關注(zhu)生物(wu)科技、工(gong)業互聯網相關標的彈性。
報(bao)告(gao)認為(wei),宏觀(guan)經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)經(jing)(jing)過(guo)長期(qi)(qi)筑(zhu)底后,L型一(yi)橫已(yi)經(jing)(jing)越來越明顯,新的(de)(de)(de)平臺下(xia)主要源自于新的(de)(de)(de)結(jie)構:傳統行業在經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)中(zhong)(zhong)占比越來越低,第三(san)產業騰飛(fei),科技、創新成為(wei)未來經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)驅動的(de)(de)(de)引擎。三(san)駕馬(ma)車(che)中(zhong)(zhong),消費成為(wei)內需的(de)(de)(de)主要動力。當下(xia)中(zhong)(zhong)國正(zheng)處于復蘇期(qi)(qi)確認的(de)(de)(de)筑(zhu)底期(qi)(qi),PMI持續位(wei)于景(jing)氣擴張區間證(zheng)明經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)仍在復蘇,但投資(zi)仍在筑(zhu)底期(qi)(qi),而去杠桿帶(dai)來的(de)(de)(de)基(ji)建(jian)、房(fang)地產下(xia)行壓(ya)力以及整個經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)體對于宏觀(guan)預期(qi)(qi)的(de)(de)(de)不斷(duan)修正(zheng)是超額(e)收益來源。
報(bao)告(gao)認為(wei),在2018年,出(chu)于加速經濟(ji)新舊動(dong)能切(qie)換以(yi)及滿足戰(zhan)略新興產(chan)業(ye)融資需要,對“新經濟(ji)”企(qi)(qi)業(ye)開啟綠色通道并對獨角獸(shou)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)做出(chu)政策傾斜,市場風險偏好(hao)走向再(zai)平衡(heng),配置也走向均衡(heng)。但從短期(qi)看(kan),新經濟(ji)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)業(ye)績暫(zan)時(shi)(shi)難以(yi)追趕其(qi)股價(jia)的漲幅,即業(ye)績估值暫(zan)難匹配,新興行業(ye)成為(wei)主導產(chan)業(ye)需要漫(man)長的時(shi)(shi)間,行業(ye)競爭格(ge)局暫(zan)未穩定,此時(shi)(shi)處于戰(zhan)略建倉(cang)期(qi)。
該報(bao)告提出“新(xin)價值,再平衡”觀點(dian),建(jian)議既要配置(zhi)在(zai)行(xing)業集中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)度不斷上升(sheng)(sheng)進(jin)(jin)程中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong),正式(shi)加入 MSCI 后(hou)有(you)“活水”進(jin)(jin)入,估值中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)樞將有(you)力抬升(sheng)(sheng)的(de)(de)藍(lan)籌股(gu),也要配置(zhi)受(shou)(shou)益于(yu)新(xin)經濟崛起中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)在(zai)戰(zhan)略新(xin)興(xing)行(xing)業具(ju)有(you)競爭優勢的(de)(de)“新(xin)藍(lan)籌”。行(xing)業中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong),關(guan)注受(shou)(shou)益政府推進(jin)(jin)改(gai)革的(de)(de)醫(yi)藥、醫(yi)療保健、軍(jun)工、半導體,受(shou)(shou)益于(yu)消費(fei)(fei)升(sheng)(sheng)級與消費(fei)(fei)下沉趨(qu)勢下的(de)(de)大(da)眾(zhong)消費(fei)(fei);同時(shi),大(da)金(jin)融(rong)(尤其是受(shou)(shou)益于(yu)宏觀經濟增速平臺企穩的(de)(de)銀(yin)行(xing))長期(qi)來看依(yi)然是核(he)心資產,行(xing)業競爭格(ge)局改(gai)變后(hou)的(de)(de)周期(qi)股(gu)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)具(ju)有(you)競爭優勢的(de)(de)龍頭(tou)同樣(yang)需要均(jun)衡配置(zhi)。
中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)證(zheng)(zheng)網聲(sheng)明(ming):凡(fan)本網注(zhu)(zhu)明(ming)“來(lai)源(yuan):中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國證(zheng)(zheng)券(quan)報·中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)證(zheng)(zheng)網”的(de)(de)所有作品,版權(quan)均屬于中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國證(zheng)(zheng)券(quan)報、中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)證(zheng)(zheng)網。中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國證(zheng)(zheng)券(quan)報·中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)證(zheng)(zheng)網與(yu)作品作者(zhe)聯合聲(sheng)明(ming),任何組(zu)織(zhi)未經中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國證(zheng)(zheng)券(quan)報、中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)證(zheng)(zheng)網以及(ji)作者(zhe)書面授(shou)權(quan)不(bu)得轉載(zai)、摘編或(huo)利(li)用(yong)其(qi)(qi)它方式使用(yong)上述(shu)作品。凡(fan)本網注(zhu)(zhu)明(ming)來(lai)源(yuan)非中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國證(zheng)(zheng)券(quan)報·中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)證(zheng)(zheng)網的(de)(de)作品,均轉載(zai)自其(qi)(qi)它媒體(ti),轉載(zai)目的(de)(de)在于更好服務讀者(zhe)、傳遞信息(xi)之需,并不(bu)代表(biao)本網贊同其(qi)(qi)觀點,本網亦(yi)不(bu)對其(qi)(qi)真實性負責,持異議者(zhe)應(ying)與(yu)原出處單位主張(zhang)權(quan)利(li)。
特別鏈接:政府部門交易機構證券期貨四所兩司新聞發布平臺友情鏈接版權聲明
關于報社關于本站廣告發布免責條款
中國證券報社版權所有,未經書面授權不得復制或建立鏡像 經營許可證編號:京B2-20180749 京公網安備0-1
Copyright 2001-2018 China Securities Journal. All Rights Reserved
中國證券報(bao)社版權所(suo)有,未經(jing)書面授權不得復(fu)制(zhi)或(huo)建立鏡像
經營(ying)許可證(zheng)編號:京B2-20180749 京公網安備0-1
Copyright 2001-2018 China Securities Journal. All Rights Reserved