上周(zhou),標普500指數(shu)收于2599.95點,當周(zhou)跌(die)幅(fu)達(da)到(dao)1.26%,延續了此前一周(zhou)的(de)跌(die)勢。年(nian)(nian)初至今,標普500指數(shu)總體已經呈(cheng)現跌(die)幅(fu),截至上周(zhou)五收盤該指數(shu)下跌(die)2.75%,股(gu)息下跌(die)0.90%。雖然2015年(nian)(nian)、2011年(nian)(nian)、2005年(nian)(nian)、1960年(nian)(nian)和1948年(nian)(nian)該指數(shu)在全年(nian)(nian)均(jun)出現下跌(die),但與目前不同的(de)是當時均(jun)股(gu)息上漲,投資者獲利的(de)要求仍(reng)能得到(dao)滿足。目前標普500指數(shu)距離近期(qi)高位(2018年(nian)(nian)9月20日2930.75點)跌(die)幅(fu)達(da)到(dao)11.29%,再(zai)次進入(ru)修正模式(shi),11個(ge)行業中有6個(ge)跌(die)幅(fu)也超(chao)10%。自(zi)2016年(nian)(nian)11月8日美國(guo)大選以來,標普500指數(shu)上漲21.52%;自(zi)開(kai)始于2009年(nian)(nian)3月9日的(de)美股(gu)本輪牛市以來,標普500指數(shu)漲幅(fu)284%。
交(jiao)易(yi)量方面,上(shang)周(zhou)(zhou)市場(chang)整體交(jiao)易(yi)量下跌了(le)12%,但仍比一(yi)年(nian)(nian)(nian)平(ping)均(jun)(jun)(jun)值(zhi)和五年(nian)(nian)(nian)平(ping)均(jun)(jun)(jun)值(zhi)均(jun)(jun)(jun)高出15%。當周(zhou)(zhou)可(ke)衡量的波動(dong)率由此前一(yi)周(zhou)(zhou)的6.81%降至(zhi)3.96%,但它仍然高于(yu)一(yi)年(nian)(nian)(nian)均(jun)(jun)(jun)值(zhi)2.85%和五年(nian)(nian)(nian)均(jun)(jun)(jun)值(zhi)2.31%。上(shang)周(zhou)(zhou)市場(chang)周(zhou)(zhou)三(san)表現最(zui)佳(jia),上(shang)漲0.54%;周(zhou)(zhou)五表現最(zui)差,下跌1.91%。
板(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)塊(kuai)方面,行(xing)業(ye)板(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)塊(kuai)差異(yi)(最(zui)(zui)佳行(xing)業(ye)至最(zui)(zui)差行(xing)業(ye))收窄,11個(ge)行(xing)業(ye)板(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)塊(kuai)中(zhong)有(you)(you)2個(ge)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang),與此前(qian)一周(zhou)(zhou)相同。上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)周(zhou)(zhou)單日行(xing)業(ye)板(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)塊(kuai)差異(yi)僅有(you)(you)一天(tian)超過(guo)1%,而此前(qian)一周(zhou)(zhou)的(de)(de)4個(ge)交易日中(zhong)有(you)(you)3個(ge)交易日板(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)塊(kuai)差異(yi)超過(guo)1%。此外(wai),上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)周(zhou)(zhou)最(zui)(zui)佳行(xing)業(ye)與最(zui)(zui)差行(xing)業(ye)之(zhi)間(jian)的(de)(de)單周(zhou)(zhou)差為4.18%,低于年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)均值4.86%。醫(yi)療(liao)保(bao)健(jian)板(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)塊(kuai)表(biao)(biao)現(xian)(xian)強勢(shi),領漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)板(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)塊(kuai),上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)周(zhou)(zhou)漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)幅(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)高(gao)(gao)達(da)7.36%;而原材料板(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)塊(kuai)表(biao)(biao)現(xian)(xian)滯后,跌(die)(die)(die)(die)(die)幅(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)15.59%。市(shi)場風險和(he)憂(you)慮情緒仍在,雖然未能(neng)主導(dao)市(shi)場,但(dan)是(shi)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)周(zhou)(zhou)五(wu)市(shi)場上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)已(yi)經(jing)(jing)出現(xian)(xian)拋售動作,并且幾乎沒有(you)(you)支(zhi)撐。公用(yong)事業(ye)板(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)塊(kuai)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)周(zhou)(zhou)漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)幅(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)0.64%,年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)內(nei)漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)幅(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)高(gao)(gao)達(da)7.07%。醫(yi)療(liao)保(bao)健(jian)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)周(zhou)(zhou)跌(die)(die)(die)(die)(die)幅(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)1.85%,年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)初(chu)至今(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)幅(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)7.36%。事實上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang),自從加入計算股(gu)息(xi)(xi)以來,公用(yong)事業(ye)板(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)塊(kuai)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)了10.83%,年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)初(chu)至今(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)的(de)(de)股(gu)息(xi)(xi)已(yi)經(jing)(jing)超過(guo)了醫(yi)療(liao)保(bao)健(jian),醫(yi)療(liao)保(bao)健(jian)板(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)塊(kuai)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)內(nei)計算股(gu)息(xi)(xi)的(de)(de)漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)幅(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)僅達(da)到9.14%,應該說(shuo)公用(yong)事業(ye)是(shi)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)內(nei)表(biao)(biao)現(xian)(xian)最(zui)(zui)佳的(de)(de)板(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)塊(kuai)。此外(wai),通信服務板(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)塊(kuai)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)周(zhou)(zhou)表(biao)(biao)現(xian)(xian)也(ye)比較積極,周(zhou)(zhou)漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)幅(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)0.50%,但(dan)該股(gu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)初(chu)至今(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)下跌(die)(die)(die)(die)(die)約13.03%;信息(xi)(xi)技(ji)術板(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)塊(kuai)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)周(zhou)(zhou)下跌(die)(die)(die)(die)(die)0.02%,年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)初(chu)至今(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)仍上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)2.09%,自美國大(da)選至今(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)44.84%,是(shi)表(biao)(biao)現(xian)(xian)最(zui)(zui)好的(de)(de)板(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)塊(kuai)。消(xiao)費(fei)類股(gu)下跌(die)(die)(die)(die)(die),主要因為可選消(xiao)費(fei)下跌(die)(die)(die)(die)(die)1.2%,且上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)周(zhou)(zhou)消(xiao)費(fei)品訂單下跌(die)(die)(die)(die)(die)0.55%,年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)初(chu)至今(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)下跌(die)(die)(die)(die)(die)5.41%。金融板(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)塊(kuai)是(shi)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)周(zhou)(zhou)表(biao)(biao)現(xian)(xian)最(zui)(zui)糟的(de)(de)板(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)塊(kuai),周(zhou)(zhou)跌(die)(die)(die)(die)(die)幅(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)達(da)3.54%,此前(qian)一周(zhou)(zhou)該板(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)塊(kuai)也(ye)是(shi)11個(ge)行(xing)業(ye)板(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)塊(kuai)中(zhong)表(biao)(biao)現(xian)(xian)最(zui)(zui)差的(de)(de),跌(die)(die)(die)(die)(die)幅(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)高(gao)(gao)達(da)7.08%,年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)內(nei)跌(die)(die)(die)(die)(die)幅(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)為13.63%。能(neng)源(yuan)板(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)塊(kuai)下跌(die)(die)(die)(die)(die)2.24%,年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)初(chu)至今(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)跌(die)(die)(die)(die)(die)幅(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)14.52%。
市場(chang)VIX波動率指數上(shang)(shang)周(zhou)收(shou)于21.63,高(gao)于此前一(yi)周(zhou)的20.29,當周(zhou)交易區間為20.34至25.94。10年(nian)(nian)期(qi)美債收(shou)報2.89%,與前一(yi)周(zhou)持平;30年(nian)(nian)期(qi)美債收(shou)報3.15%,低于前一(yi)周(zhou)的3.18%。油價繼續測試50美元(yuan)的水(shui)平,上(shang)(shang)周(zhou)收(shou)于51.19美元(yuan)。黃金從前一(yi)周(zhou)的1250.50美元(yuan)下跌至1246.00美元(yuan)。
由于(yu)貿易摩擦方(fang)面的(de)(de)(de)(de)不(bu)確定(ding)性、英國(guo)首(shou)相梅推遲議會脫歐(ou)協議、法國(guo)的(de)(de)(de)(de)抗議活(huo)動(dong)仍在(zai)繼(ji)續(xu),其他歐(ou)盟國(guo)家(意大利和(he)西班牙)也出現了類似的(de)(de)(de)(de)動(dong)亂等,多重不(bu)利因素都導致市場(chang)(chang)(chang)表現偏弱(ruo)。華爾(er)(er)街(jie)分析師們(men)表示(shi),最近波動(dong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)市場(chang)(chang)(chang)給投(tou)資情(qing)緒和(he)信(xin)心(xin)造(zao)成了一定(ding)的(de)(de)(de)(de)打(da)擊,上周(zhou)(zhou)前(qian)四天市場(chang)(chang)(chang)一直(zhi)比較平靜,然而周(zhou)(zhou)五一系列的(de)(de)(de)(de)數據報(bao)告(gao)將市場(chang)(chang)(chang)拉回了2018年(nian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)現實,當日(ri)標普500指(zhi)數跌幅高達1.91%。目(mu)前(qian)還有兩周(zhou)(zhou)的(de)(de)(de)(de)時間,但圣誕節假(jia)期(qi)在(zai)即(ji),且三(san)季度的(de)(de)(de)(de)財(cai)報(bao)已經基(ji)本畫上句(ju)號,市場(chang)(chang)(chang)反彈動(dong)能有限。目(mu)前(qian)華爾(er)(er)街(jie)開(kai)始進(jin)入四季度和(he)2019年(nian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)預測。本周(zhou)(zhou)美聯儲將召開(kai)議息會議,市場(chang)(chang)(chang)預期(qi)將大概(gai)率再次加(jia)息,此后的(de)(de)(de)(de)經濟預測報(bao)告(gao)和(he)鮑威爾(er)(er)主持的(de)(de)(de)(de)新聞發布會成為(wei)本周(zhou)(zhou)市場(chang)(chang)(chang)關(guan)注的(de)(de)(de)(de)焦點。
本周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)的(de)經(jing)濟(ji)(ji)報(bao)(bao)告(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)將(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)從周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)一上午(wu)(wu)10點(dian)的(de)房屋(wu)啟動報(bao)(bao)告(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)開(kai)始。周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)二(er)將(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)開(kai)啟為期兩天的(de)聯邦公(gong)開(kai)市場委員(yuan)會(FOMC)會議,華爾(er)街預(yu)期此次會議將(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)再(zai)次加息0.25%,房屋(wu)開(kai)工(gong)報(bao)(bao)告(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)也將(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)在(zai)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)二(er)公(gong)布。周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)三上午(wu)(wu)10點(dian)將(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)公(gong)布每(mei)(mei)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)抵押(ya)貸款(kuan)申請報(bao)(bao)告(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)和(he)現有房屋(wu)銷售(shou)報(bao)(bao)告(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao),每(mei)(mei)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)EIA石(shi)油報(bao)(bao)告(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)將(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)在(zai)上午(wu)(wu)10:30發(fa)布。下午(wu)(wu)2點(dian),FOMC將(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)發(fa)布經(jing)濟(ji)(ji)預(yu)測(ce)報(bao)(bao)告(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao),美聯儲主席(xi)鮑威爾(er)將(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)在(zai)下午(wu)(wu)2:30主持相關新聞(wen)發(fa)布會;周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)四上午(wu)(wu)10點(dian)將(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)發(fa)布領(ling)先指標報(bao)(bao)告(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao);周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)五將(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)公(gong)布2018年第三季度GDP的(de)最終報(bao)(bao)告(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)以及企業利潤(run)報(bao)(bao)告(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)。上午(wu)(wu)10點(dian),將(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)發(fa)布消費者(zhe)情(qing)緒報(bao)(bao)告(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)以及個人收(shou)入(ru)和(he)支出(chu)報(bao)(bao)告(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)。
(作者系標(biao)普道瓊斯指數(shu)公司(si)資(zi)深指數(shu)分析師,倪偉編譯)
中(zhong)(zhong)證(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)網(wang)聲明:凡(fan)本(ben)網(wang)注明“來源:中(zhong)(zhong)國證(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)券(quan)報·中(zhong)(zhong)證(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)網(wang)”的所有作(zuo)(zuo)品(pin)(pin),版權均(jun)屬于(yu)中(zhong)(zhong)國證(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)券(quan)報、中(zhong)(zhong)證(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)網(wang)。中(zhong)(zhong)國證(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)券(quan)報·中(zhong)(zhong)證(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)網(wang)與(yu)作(zuo)(zuo)品(pin)(pin)作(zuo)(zuo)者(zhe)聯合(he)聲明,任(ren)何組織未經中(zhong)(zhong)國證(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)券(quan)報、中(zhong)(zhong)證(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)網(wang)以及作(zuo)(zuo)者(zhe)書面授權不(bu)得轉(zhuan)載、摘(zhai)編或利用(yong)(yong)其(qi)(qi)(qi)它(ta)(ta)方式使用(yong)(yong)上述作(zuo)(zuo)品(pin)(pin)。凡(fan)本(ben)網(wang)注明來源非中(zhong)(zhong)國證(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)券(quan)報·中(zhong)(zhong)證(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)網(wang)的作(zuo)(zuo)品(pin)(pin),均(jun)轉(zhuan)載自其(qi)(qi)(qi)它(ta)(ta)媒(mei)體,轉(zhuan)載目的在于(yu)更好服務讀者(zhe)、傳遞信息之需,并不(bu)代表本(ben)網(wang)贊同其(qi)(qi)(qi)觀點(dian),本(ben)網(wang)亦不(bu)對(dui)其(qi)(qi)(qi)真(zhen)實性負責,持異(yi)議者(zhe)應與(yu)原出處單(dan)位主張權利。
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