上(shang)市(shi)券(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)商(shang)首批半年度(du)業(ye)(ye)績預(yu)(yu)告正陸(lu)續披(pi)露(lu)，截至(zhi)(zhi)記(ji)者發(fa)稿(gao)，已有紅塔(ta)證(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)券(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)、首創(chuang)(chuang)證(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)券(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)、東興證(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)券(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)、太(tai)平洋證(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)券(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)、國聯證(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)券(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)、天風證(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)券(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)、海(hai)通證(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)券(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)、中(zhong)泰證(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)券(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)、東北證(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)券(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)、國海(hai)證(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)券(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)、華西證(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)券(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)等11家上(shang)市(shi)券(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)商(shang)披(pi)露(lu)了2024年半年度(du)業(ye)(ye)績預(yu)(yu)告。受自營業(ye)(ye)務的(de)(de)影(ying)響，上(shang)述券(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)商(shang)中(zhong)，有部分業(ye)(ye)績彈性較大，呈大幅增(zeng)長(chang)的(de)(de)趨(qu)勢，也有的(de)(de)業(ye)(ye)績表現不及預(yu)(yu)期，出現大幅下降甚至(zhi)(zhi)虧損。其中(zhong)，紅塔(ta)證(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)券(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)、首創(chuang)(chuang)證(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)券(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)、東興證(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)券(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)三家券(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)商(shang)凈利潤(run)同比預(yu)(yu)增(zeng)超(chao)50%。

　　整體來看(kan)，上半年(nian)，上市(shi)券商(shang)業(ye)績(ji)(ji)預計呈現較(jiao)大分化(hua)。多(duo)位券商(shang)分析師預測，自(zi)營(ying)業(ye)務(wu)仍(reng)是決定(ding)券商(shang)業(ye)績(ji)(ji)表(biao)現的核心因素。同時，下半年(nian)證券行業(ye)業(ye)績(ji)(ji)和板塊估值有望逐(zhu)漸修復，堅(jian)定(ding)看(kan)好券商(shang)板塊的配(pei)置價值。

　　自營業務仍是

　　券商業(ye)績核心變(bian)量(liang)

　　7月8日晚間，紅塔(ta)證(zheng)券(quan)(quan)、首創(chuang)證(zheng)券(quan)(quan)、東(dong)興證(zheng)券(quan)(quan)發布半年(nian)(nian)度(du)(du)業績預(yu)增公告。紅塔(ta)證(zheng)券(quan)(quan)預(yu)計(ji)，2024年(nian)(nian)半年(nian)(nian)度(du)(du)實現(xian)歸(gui)母(mu)凈利潤(run)(run)4.49億元，同(tong)(tong)比增長(chang)52.27%。首創(chuang)證(zheng)券(quan)(quan)預(yu)計(ji)，2024年(nian)(nian)半年(nian)(nian)度(du)(du)實現(xian)歸(gui)母(mu)凈利潤(run)(run)4.55億元到(dao)(dao)4.95億元，同(tong)(tong)比增長(chang)65.44%到(dao)(dao)79.98%。東(dong)興證(zheng)券(quan)(quan)預(yu)計(ji)，2024年(nian)(nian)半年(nian)(nian)度(du)(du)實現(xian)歸(gui)母(mu)凈利潤(run)(run)5.3億元到(dao)(dao)6.3億元，同(tong)(tong)比增長(chang)51.47%到(dao)(dao)80.05%。

　　對(dui)于業(ye)績(ji)增(zeng)長的(de)原(yuan)因，東興證券(quan)表(biao)示，公(gong)司堅守絕對(dui)收益理(li)念(nian)，投(tou)資(zi)業(ye)績(ji)大幅增(zeng)長，實現(xian)整體(ti)經營(ying)業(ye)績(ji)同比大幅提升。紅塔(ta)證券(quan)表(biao)示，上半年持(chi)續優(you)化(hua)資(zi)產負債結構，進一步(bu)提升資(zi)產配置的(de)科學性(xing)和(he)有(you)效性(xing)，取得明顯效果，從而實現(xian)公(gong)司整體(ti)經營(ying)業(ye)績(ji)同比增(zeng)加。首創(chuang)證券(quan)表(biao)示，公(gong)司及(ji)時(shi)調整經營(ying)策略，資(zi)產管理(li)業(ye)務(wu)和(he)固定(ding)收益投(tou)資(zi)交易業(ye)務(wu)收入同比增(zeng)幅較大。

　　財通證券(quan)資(zi)(zi)深(shen)非(fei)銀分析師許盈盈表示：“上半(ban)年，券(quan)商收費類業(ye)務(wu)中(zhong)，預(yu)(yu)計經紀業(ye)務(wu)、投行業(ye)務(wu)仍承(cheng)壓，大資(zi)(zi)管業(ye)務(wu)保持一定(ding)(ding)韌性(xing)。資(zi)(zi)金類業(ye)務(wu)中(zhong)，預(yu)(yu)計利(li)息收入(ru)(ru)承(cheng)壓，自營投資(zi)(zi)仍是決定(ding)(ding)業(ye)績(ji)的核心(xin)因素(su)。其中(zhong)，二季(ji)度(du)以來(lai)債券(quan)市場(chang)行情延續，考慮(lv)到(dao)券(quan)商普遍(bian)加強固收類資(zi)(zi)產(chan)配置(zhi)，預(yu)(yu)計二季(ji)度(du)投資(zi)(zi)收入(ru)(ru)或(huo)將有所改善。”

　　不過(guo)，也有部分公(gong)司上半年(nian)未(wei)能實(shi)(shi)(shi)現業(ye)績(ji)增(zeng)長。7月(yue)9日晚(wan)間，有8家上市券(quan)(quan)商陸續發(fa)布(bu)了2024年(nian)半年(nian)度業(ye)績(ji)預(yu)(yu)告。其中(zhong)，海通證(zheng)(zheng)券(quan)(quan)預(yu)(yu)計(ji)實(shi)(shi)(shi)現歸(gui)(gui)母(mu)(mu)(mu)凈利(li)(li)潤(run)(run)(run)(run)(run)9.19億(yi)元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)到(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)11.67億(yi)元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)，同(tong)比(bi)(bi)下(xia)(xia)降69.53%到(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)76%。東北證(zheng)(zheng)券(quan)(quan)預(yu)(yu)計(ji)實(shi)(shi)(shi)現歸(gui)(gui)母(mu)(mu)(mu)凈利(li)(li)潤(run)(run)(run)(run)(run)1.23億(yi)元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)，同(tong)比(bi)(bi)下(xia)(xia)降77.5%。中(zhong)泰證(zheng)(zheng)券(quan)(quan)預(yu)(yu)計(ji)實(shi)(shi)(shi)現歸(gui)(gui)母(mu)(mu)(mu)凈利(li)(li)潤(run)(run)(run)(run)(run)4.34億(yi)元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)，同(tong)比(bi)(bi)下(xia)(xia)降73.5%。國海證(zheng)(zheng)券(quan)(quan)預(yu)(yu)計(ji)實(shi)(shi)(shi)現歸(gui)(gui)母(mu)(mu)(mu)凈利(li)(li)潤(run)(run)(run)(run)(run)1.51億(yi)元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)，同(tong)比(bi)(bi)下(xia)(xia)降61.34%。華西證(zheng)(zheng)券(quan)(quan)預(yu)(yu)計(ji)實(shi)(shi)(shi)現歸(gui)(gui)母(mu)(mu)(mu)凈利(li)(li)潤(run)(run)(run)(run)(run)3500萬元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)至(zhi)4500萬元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)，同(tong)比(bi)(bi)下(xia)(xia)降91.42%到(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)93.33%。太(tai)平洋(yang)證(zheng)(zheng)券(quan)(quan)預(yu)(yu)計(ji)實(shi)(shi)(shi)現歸(gui)(gui)母(mu)(mu)(mu)凈利(li)(li)潤(run)(run)(run)(run)(run)5500萬元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)到(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)7500萬元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)，同(tong)比(bi)(bi)下(xia)(xia)降74%到(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)64%。國聯證(zheng)(zheng)券(quan)(quan)預(yu)(yu)計(ji)實(shi)(shi)(shi)現歸(gui)(gui)母(mu)(mu)(mu)凈利(li)(li)潤(run)(run)(run)(run)(run)8261.77萬元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)，同(tong)比(bi)(bi)下(xia)(xia)降86.24%。天風證(zheng)(zheng)券(quan)(quan)預(yu)(yu)計(ji)實(shi)(shi)(shi)現歸(gui)(gui)母(mu)(mu)(mu)凈利(li)(li)潤(run)(run)(run)(run)(run)為-3.38億(yi)元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)到(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)-2.7億(yi)元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)，與上年(nian)同(tong)期(qi)相(xiang)比(bi)(bi)，將出現虧損。

　　上(shang)(shang)述8家(jia)券(quan)商業(ye)績(ji)波(bo)(bo)動(dong)主要(yao)受(shou)到(dao)自營(ying)(ying)業(ye)務的影(ying)響。例如，太平洋證(zheng)券(quan)表示，上(shang)(shang)半年(nian)公司(si)證(zheng)券(quan)投(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)業(ye)務及信用業(ye)務收入同比下降(jiang)，導致整(zheng)體經營(ying)(ying)業(ye)績(ji)同比下降(jiang)。國聯證(zheng)券(quan)表示，受(shou)證(zheng)券(quan)市場(chang)波(bo)(bo)動(dong)影(ying)響，公司(si)證(zheng)券(quan)投(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)業(ye)務盈利下滑(hua)。天(tian)風(feng)證(zheng)券(quan)表示，上(shang)(shang)半年(nian)受(shou)權益類市場(chang)波(bo)(bo)動(dong)等(deng)影(ying)響，報告期(qi)內，公允價值(zhi)變動(dong)收益及投(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)收益相比去年(nian)同期(qi)減(jian)少，公司(si)經營(ying)(ying)業(ye)績(ji)出(chu)現虧損。

　　華創證券(quan)金融(rong)業(ye)研究(jiu)主管、首席分(fen)析師(shi)徐(xu)康表示(shi)：“預計二季度(du)(du)上(shang)市(shi)券(quan)商(shang)輕資(zi)產(chan)業(ye)務下(xia)滑，自(zi)營(ying)業(ye)務收(shou)(shou)入(ru)同比(bi)(bi)增長(chang)64億(yi)(yi)元，或為(wei)唯一(yi)增長(chang)的(de)主營(ying)業(ye)務。二季度(du)(du)債市(shi)同比(bi)(bi)、環比(bi)(bi)表現較(jiao)佳(jia)，股市(shi)波動較(jiao)大。預測上(shang)市(shi)券(quan)商(shang)自(zi)營(ying)業(ye)務收(shou)(shou)入(ru)為(wei)389億(yi)(yi)元，同比(bi)(bi)增長(chang)19.5%，環比(bi)(bi)增長(chang)16.6%。二季度(du)(du)自(zi)營(ying)收(shou)(shou)益(yi)率或將(jiang)略微提升(sheng)至(zhi)0.6%，預計二季度(du)(du)末上(shang)市(shi)券(quan)商(shang)自(zi)營(ying)資(zi)產(chan)規模達(da)到6.49萬億(yi)(yi)元，環比(bi)(bi)增速約(yue)為(wei)2%。”

　　堅定看好

　　券商板塊估值

　　Wind資訊數據顯示，截至7月(yue)9日(ri)收(shou)盤，券(quan)商(shang)板(ban)塊(kuai)當日(ri)上漲2.38%，板(ban)塊(kuai)內50只個股全線上漲，8只個股漲幅(fu)超3%。其中，7月(yue)8日(ri)晚間發布業績預增(zeng)公告(gao)的三家(jia)券(quan)商(shang)漲幅(fu)位(wei)居板(ban)塊(kuai)前三，紅塔證券(quan)漲停，東興(xing)證券(quan)上漲5.53%，首(shou)創證券(quan)上漲4.84%。

　　招商證券非(fei)銀金融行(xing)業首(shou)席分析師鄭積沙表示：“當(dang)前，溫和修復的(de)行(xing)業基本面和歷史(shi)底部的(de)估值存在錯配，堅定看好券商板塊(kuai)，等待(dai)右側布(bu)局機會。”

　　“券(quan)商行業估(gu)值已處(chu)于歷史較低水(shui)平(ping)，然而(er)券(quan)商資產質量可靠，市凈率臨近1倍的券(quan)商板塊具(ju)備較強(qiang)配置(zhi)價(jia)值。建議關注頭部券(quan)商以及(ji)具(ju)備并購前景的券(quan)商。”信(xin)達(da)證(zheng)券(quan)非銀及(ji)中小盤首席分析師王舫朝(chao)也表(biao)示。

　　多位分析(xi)師(shi)預計(ji)，券商行(xing)業(ye)(ye)上(shang)半(ban)年業(ye)(ye)績仍將有(you)所(suo)承(cheng)壓，但下半(ban)年業(ye)(ye)績有(you)望(wang)逐(zhu)季修復。同時，當前券商板塊估值水(shui)平較低，后(hou)續有(you)望(wang)實現估值修復。

　　展望(wang)券(quan)(quan)商(shang)全年(nian)(nian)業(ye)(ye)績(ji)(ji)表現(xian)，鄭(zheng)積沙預計(ji)：“2024年(nian)(nian)下(xia)半年(nian)(nian)市場穩中(zhong)向好，行(xing)業(ye)(ye)業(ye)(ye)績(ji)(ji)逐(zhu)(zhu)季修復。在(zai)強有力的監管措(cuo)施(shi)下(xia)，市場生態持續向好。展望(wang)后市，權益市場向上基(ji)礎良(liang)好，債市整體仍偏順(shun)風(feng)。考慮2023年(nian)(nian)券(quan)(quan)商(shang)業(ye)(ye)績(ji)(ji)基(ji)數逐(zhu)(zhu)季走低(di)，2024年(nian)(nian)券(quan)(quan)商(shang)業(ye)(ye)績(ji)(ji)將逐(zhu)(zhu)季修復。預計(ji)2024年(nian)(nian)券(quan)(quan)商(shang)行(xing)業(ye)(ye)實(shi)現(xian)總(zong)(zong)營收(shou)3814億元(yuan)，同(tong)比下(xia)滑(hua)6%；實(shi)現(xian)凈(jing)利潤總(zong)(zong)計(ji)1379億元(yuan)，與往(wang)年(nian)(nian)持平(ping)；行(xing)業(ye)(ye)凈(jing)資產收(shou)益率為4.58%左(zuo)右。”

　　中航(hang)證券(quan)(quan)非銀(yin)行業分析師薄曉旭(xu)表示：“一系列利好政策的(de)(de)實施為券(quan)(quan)商(shang)提(ti)供了更加明確的(de)(de)發展(zhan)路(lu)徑，有助于推(tui)動優質券(quan)(quan)商(shang)實現估值的(de)(de)合理修復(fu)。”