申銀萬國:供給側改革推進 關注轉型升級機會
15年(nian)水(shui)(shui)泥(ni)需(xu)求(qiu)首現(xian)負(fu)增(zeng)長,盈利(li)(li)(li)創歷史(shi)次低水(shui)(shui)平(ping)(ping)。15年(nian)1-11月(yue)累計需(xu)求(qiu)下(xia)滑5.1%,受地產回落及(ji)基建(jian)投資低預(yu)(yu)期影響,需(xu)求(qiu)近25年(nian)來(lai)首現(xian)負(fu)增(zeng)長,我(wo)們預(yu)(yu)計全年(nian)需(xu)求(qiu)增(zeng)速(su)回落至-4.1%。需(xu)求(qiu)懸崖式(shi)下(xia)跌導致水(shui)(shui)泥(ni)盈利(li)(li)(li)大(da)幅(fu)回落,10月(yue)水(shui)(shui)泥(ni)利(li)(li)(li)潤總額223.7億(yi)元(yuan)(yuan),同(tong)減63.8%,為(wei)近7年(nian)歷史(shi)低點(dian)。行業毛利(li)(li)(li)率、凈利(li)(li)(li)率分(fen)別為(wei)12.78%、3.08%,同(tong)比下(xia)滑3.64%和4.59%。15年(nian)1-10月(yue)水(shui)(shui)泥(ni)行業平(ping)(ping)均噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)毛利(li)(li)(li)為(wei)47.75元(yuan)(yuan),同(tong)比下(xia)降16.6元(yuan)(yuan),噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)凈利(li)(li)(li)11.5元(yuan)(yuan),同(tong)比大(da)幅(fu)下(xia)滑18.5元(yuan)(yuan),為(wei)08年(nian)以來(lai)歷史(shi)低點(dian)。從供給端看,我(wo)們預(yu)(yu)計15、16年(nian)新增(zeng)熟料產能分(fen)別為(wei)0.36億(yi)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)、0.37噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun),折合水(shui)(shui)泥(ni)產能約為(wei)0.47億(yi)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)、0.48億(yi)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun),新增(zeng)產能保(bao)持平(ping)(ping)穩(wen)態勢。
16年(nian)(nian)(nian)受基(ji)建、地產(chan)投(tou)資(zi)下滑影(ying)響,需求(qiu)繼續承壓。地產(chan)盡管(guan)銷售端景氣度回升,但“去庫(ku)存”壓力較大,地產(chan)仍處于緩慢(man)探(tan)底的過程(cheng),水(shui)泥需求(qiu)難(nan)言樂(le)觀。據申(shen)萬宏(hong)觀預測,中(zhong)性預計(ji)16年(nian)(nian)(nian)固(gu)定投(tou)資(zi)增(zeng)速為10%,其中(zhong)地產(chan)增(zeng)速0%%,基(ji)礎設施建設投(tou)資(zi)12%(預測同(tong)比下滑約(yue)6%),我們(men)預計(ji)16年(nian)(nian)(nian)水(shui)泥增(zeng)速為在(zai)-2.8%。我們(men)認為16年(nian)(nian)(nian)重(zhong)點(dian)關注供給側改(gai)革推進(jin),不(bu)具(ju)備價值的小產(chan)能出(chu)清加快,龍(long)頭(tou)企業(ye)兼并(bing)重(zhong)組加快。
重(zhong)點關(guan)注供給(gei)側(ce)改革(ge)政策推進,產(chan)(chan)能(neng)出(chu)清(qing)、并(bing)(bing)購(gou)整(zheng)合(he)有(you)望(wang)加(jia)速(su)。近期中央財經領(ling)導小組會議首次提出(chu)在(zai)適度擴大(da)(da)(da)總需(xu)求的(de)同(tong)時,著(zhu)力(li)加(jia)強(qiang)供給(gei)側(ce)結構性(xing)改革(ge)。12月克強(qiang)總理召開國務院常務會議,對長(chang)期虧損(sun)的(de)產(chan)(chan)能(neng)過剩行業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)企(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)實行關(guan)停(ting)并(bing)(bing)轉或剝離重(zhong)組,對持續虧損(sun)三年(nian)以上(shang)且(qie)不符合(he)結構調整(zheng)方向(xiang)的(de)企(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)采取資(zi)(zi)產(chan)(chan)重(zhong)組、產(chan)(chan)權(quan)轉讓、關(guan)閉破產(chan)(chan)等方式予以“出(chu)清(qing)”。我們認為(wei)(wei)供給(gei)側(ce)改革(ge)下小產(chan)(chan)能(neng)加(jia)速(su)出(chu)清(qing),同(tong)時水(shui)(shui)泥或將(jiang)加(jia)快兼(jian)并(bing)(bing)重(zhong)組力(li)度,玻(bo)(bo)璃企(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)轉型(xing)(xing)有(you)望(wang)提速(su)。1)水(shui)(shui)泥行業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)重(zhong)資(zi)(zi)產(chan)(chan)導致轉型(xing)(xing)壓力(li)大(da)(da)(da),行業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)依(yi)然處于產(chan)(chan)能(neng)出(chu)清(qing)階(jie)段(duan),市場(chang)淘汰(tai)有(you)望(wang)加(jia)速(su)。15年(nian)水(shui)(shui)泥行業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)大(da)(da)(da)型(xing)(xing)并(bing)(bing)購(gou)事件(jian)共9件(jian),并(bing)(bing)購(gou)速(su)度加(jia)快,涉及金(jin)額均(jun)有(you)提升明顯,近期海螺并(bing)(bing)購(gou)西(xi)部(bu)水(shui)(shui)泥,天瑞中建材爭奪山水(shui)(shui)水(shui)(shui)泥股(gu)權(quan),區(qu)域龍(long)(long)頭價值獲得產(chan)(chan)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)資(zi)(zi)本(ben)認可。2)玻(bo)(bo)璃下游大(da)(da)(da)部(bu)分為(wei)(wei)地產(chan)(chan),企(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)盈利壓力(li)更(geng)大(da)(da)(da),浮法(fa)龍(long)(long)頭華爾潤已宣布破產(chan)(chan),因玻(bo)(bo)璃線重(zhong)啟成本(ben)較高,我們認為(wei)(wei)玻(bo)(bo)璃行業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)轉型(xing)(xing)將(jiang)更(geng)加(jia)顯著(zhu)。
玻(bo)璃板塊:從需(xu)求端(duan)看,玻(bo)璃下游與地產(chan)高度相關,地產(chan)新(xin)開工面積短期難有反轉,我們認為16年(nian)(nian)玻(bo)璃行(xing)業需(xu)求仍保持低(di)位(wei)運行(xing),毛利率(lv)僅為8.74%。目(mu)前(qian)浮法(fa)玻(bo)璃產(chan)能利用(yong)率(lv)為63.69%,同比去年(nian)(nian)下滑8.8%,產(chan)能利用(yong)率(lv)創(chuang)(chuang)出10年(nian)(nian)來最低(di)水(shui)平(ping),停(ting)產(chan)率(lv)36.31%創(chuang)(chuang)歷(li)史最高水(shui)平(ping)。成(cheng)本(ben)(ben)端(duan)受益非居民用(yong)天然(ran)氣價格下調(diao)0.7元/立方米,玻(bo)璃每噸耗天然(ran)氣成(cheng)本(ben)(ben)將減少140元,若價格平(ping)穩,毛利改善12.7%。目(mu)前(qian)玻(bo)璃行(xing)業盈利弱于水(shui)泥,疊(die)加(jia)(jia)產(chan)線重啟高成(cheng)本(ben)(ben),供給側管理加(jia)(jia)強下我們認為行(xing)業轉型將更加(jia)(jia)顯著。
投資(zi)策略:供給側改革將利好行業產能淘汰,關注(zhu)水(shui)泥(ni)龍頭(tou)市場整合(he)(he),玻璃企(qi)業轉型(xing)帶來(lai)投資(zi)機會。我(wo)們建議關注(zhu)水(shui)泥(ni)產業整合(he)(he)組(zu)合(he)(he):冀東(dong)水(shui)泥(ni)、金(jin)隅股(gu)份(京津冀一體(ti)化)+寧夏建材、祁連山(中(zhong)(zhong)材、中(zhong)(zhong)建材央企(qi)產業整合(he)(he)),玻璃推薦轉型(xing)組(zu)合(he)(he):秀強股(gu)份(彩晶(jing)玻璃細分龍頭(tou),切入(ru)幼教市場)+金(jin)晶(jing)科(ke)技+南(nan)玻A(前海(hai)人(ren)壽為第一大股(gu)東(dong)),產業龍頭(tou)角(jiao)度推薦海(hai)螺(luo)水(shui)泥(ni)、華新水(shui)泥(ni)。
中(zhong)央(yang)城(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)市(shi)(shi)(shi)工作(zuo)會議(yi)召開在(zai)即(ji),地(di)下管(guan)網、海(hai)綿城(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)市(shi)(shi)(shi)或(huo)為(wei)重要切點。中(zhong)央(yang)城(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)市(shi)(shi)(shi)工作(zuo)會議(yi)即(ji)將召開,會議(yi)或(huo)將包括城(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)市(shi)(shi)(shi)規(gui)劃、城(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)市(shi)(shi)(shi)基礎設施建設、城(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)市(shi)(shi)(shi)公用事業運營等方(fang)(fang)面。我們(men)認為(wei)此次(ci)會議(yi)有(you)(you)望加快優化城(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)市(shi)(shi)(shi)發展模(mo)式,將重點強調(diao)完善城(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)市(shi)(shi)(shi)發展規(gui)劃,提(ti)高城(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)市(shi)(shi)(shi)基礎設施的(de)質量,打造(zao)智慧、節能、環保的(de)百年城(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)市(shi)(shi)(shi)。目(mu)前城(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)市(shi)(shi)(shi)地(di)上建設特別是(shi)基礎設施建設已(yi)具備一定基礎,我們(men)預計會議(yi)或(huo)將以地(di)下管(guan)網、海(hai)綿城(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)市(shi)(shi)(shi)、綠色(se)建筑、智慧城(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)市(shi)(shi)(shi)等建設為(wei)重要切入點,此外PPP 模(mo)式在(zai)城(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)市(shi)(shi)(shi)建設中(zhong)有(you)(you)望發揮(hui)重要作(zuo)用。我們(men)重點推薦地(di)下管(guan)網及海(hai)綿城(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)市(shi)(shi)(shi)受益標的(de):納川股(gu)份、龍泉股(gu)份、偉星新材、永高股(gu)份、東方(fang)(fang)雨(yu)虹。
新(xin)型建(jian)(jian)材(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)投(tou)資策略:1)轉(zhuan)(zhuan)型升級建(jian)(jian)材(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)企業,積極擁抱新(xin)經濟。在(zai)行(xing)業基(ji)本面受影(ying)響且很難強(qiang)勁復蘇的(de)(de)(de)大(da)背景下,我(wo)們認(ren)為(wei)2016年建(jian)(jian)材(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)板(ban)塊(kuai)轉(zhuan)(zhuan)型和產業模式(shi)創(chuang)新(xin)日益頻繁,將繼續成為(wei)行(xing)業投(tou)資的(de)(de)(de)主旋律(lv),行(xing)業內不少基(ji)本面面臨瓶(ping)頸的(de)(de)(de)公(gong)司在(zai)注(zhu)冊制倒閉的(de)(de)(de)情況下將進一(yi)步加快各自轉(zhuan)(zhuan)型的(de)(de)(de)步伐。推(tui)薦(jian)建(jian)(jian)研(yan)集團、納川股份。主線2)消費型新(xin)建(jian)(jian)材(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)。建(jian)(jian)議關(guan)注(zhu)包含(han)以下兩點的(de)(de)(de)家居(ju)建(jian)(jian)材(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)類(lei)上(shang)市公(gong)司:(1)行(xing)業領頭者(zhe),具(ju)有(you)較強(qiang)品牌效應、產品質量有(you)溢價能力的(de)(de)(de)公(gong)司;(2)有(you)強(qiang)大(da)線下布局,可提供(gong)無(wu)縫(feng)對接式(shi)線下服(fu)務。推(tui)薦(jian)標的(de)(de)(de):首推(tui)在(zai)行(xing)業內轉(zhuan)(zhuan)型較早(zao)的(de)(de)(de)偉星新(xin)材(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)、東方(fang)雨虹(hong)、友邦(bang)吊(diao)頂;其次可關(guan)注(zhu)北新(xin)建(jian)(jian)材(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)、嘉(jia)寓股份。
中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)證(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)網聲明:凡本(ben)(ben)網注明“來源(yuan):中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)證(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)券(quan)(quan)報(bao)·中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)證(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)網”的(de)所(suo)有作(zuo)(zuo)品,版權(quan)均屬(shu)于中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)證(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)券(quan)(quan)報(bao)、中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)證(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)網。中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)證(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)券(quan)(quan)報(bao)·中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)證(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)網與(yu)作(zuo)(zuo)品作(zuo)(zuo)者聯(lian)合聲明,任何組織未經(jing)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)證(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)券(quan)(quan)報(bao)、中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)證(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)網以及作(zuo)(zuo)者書面授權(quan)不得轉載(zai)、摘(zhai)編或利(li)用(yong)(yong)其(qi)(qi)它方式使用(yong)(yong)上述(shu)作(zuo)(zuo)品。凡本(ben)(ben)網注明來源(yuan)非(fei)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)證(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)券(quan)(quan)報(bao)·中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)證(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)網的(de)作(zuo)(zuo)品,均轉載(zai)自其(qi)(qi)它媒(mei)體,轉載(zai)目的(de)在于更(geng)好服(fu)務(wu)讀者、傳遞信(xin)息(xi)之需,并不代表本(ben)(ben)網贊同其(qi)(qi)觀點(dian),本(ben)(ben)網亦(yi)不對(dui)其(qi)(qi)真實性負責,持(chi)異議者應與(yu)原(yuan)出處(chu)單位主(zhu)張權(quan)利(li)。
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