中國證券報 記者 張利靜(jing)
今年(nian)年(nian)初,一則金(jin)(jin)(jin)融大鱷“囤(dun)鈷(gu)(gu)待(dai)漲(zhang)”的(de)消息(xi)一度攪動國際(ji)金(jin)(jin)(jin)屬(shu)市場。但就在許多投(tou)資者(zhe)還沒鬧明(ming)白“鈷(gu)(gu)”是何方神圣的(de)時(shi)候(hou),金(jin)(jin)(jin)屬(shu)價格便已飛沖(chong)直上,牛影翩翩。尤其是鈀(ba)金(jin)(jin)(jin)、鈷(gu)(gu)、鋰(li)、鉑(bo)金(jin)(jin)(jin)等小(xiao)金(jin)(jin)(jin)屬(shu)大放異彩,成(cheng)為(wei)金(jin)(jin)(jin)屬(shu)投(tou)資中(zhong)的(de)“四小(xiao)花(hua)旦”。
“大礦”減產 “小礦”大漲
在金(jin)屬(shu)家族,與銅(tong)、鋁、金(jin)銀等相比,鈷(gu)、鈀、鉑、鋰的身影并不是最(zui)顯(xian)眼的。但其今年以來的表(biao)現(xian)卻(que)令人(ren)無法(fa)忽(hu)視。據中證君統計(ji),截至(zhi)目前,今年以來國際(ji)現(xian)貨市場鈷(gu)價大漲(zhang)110.3%,鈀金(jin)價格大漲(zhang)約39.5%,鉑金(jin)上漲(zhang)5%;碳酸(suan)鋰最(zui)近半(ban)年價格漲(zhang)幅為11.15%。
A股(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)市場,相關股(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)票與(yu)其價(jia)格上(shang)(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)形(xing)成(cheng)了強烈呼應,其中(zhong)不乏股(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)價(jia)翻倍者(zhe)。以鋰(li)為(wei)例(li),雖然(ran)最(zui)近一年(nian)鋰(li)產品中(zhong)漲(zhang)價(jia)最(zui)厲害的產品價(jia)格漲(zhang)幅不足30%,但A股(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)中(zhong)的鋰(li)概念(nian)股(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)天齊鋰(li)業已(yi)經(jing)從年(nian)初的32.45元(yuan)(yuan)/股(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)漲(zhang)到今日收(shou)盤的68.19元(yuan)(yuan)/股(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu),年(nian)內累(lei)(lei)計漲(zhang)幅高達110%,股(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)價(jia)已(yi)經(jing)翻倍。鈷(gu)概念(nian)中(zhong),洛陽(yang)鉬業年(nian)內漲(zhang)幅累(lei)(lei)計85.4%,格林美上(shang)(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)41.5%,華友鈷(gu)業累(lei)(lei)計上(shang)(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)109%。相比之下,鉑(bo)金概念(nian)股(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)貴(gui)研鉑(bo)業今年(nian)以來則表現(xian)平(ping)平(ping),目前(qian)持平(ping)于年(nian)初價(jia)位(wei),不過6、7月份表現(xian)尚可,兩個月漲(zhang)幅累(lei)(lei)計約21.5%。
對于(yu)今年(nian)以(yi)來上(shang)述小金屬的漲勢,中大期(qi)貨貴金屬分析師趙(zhao)曉君分析認(ren)為
無論是(shi)(shi)基本(ben)金(jin)(jin)屬(shu)(shu)還是(shi)(shi)小(xiao)(xiao)金(jin)(jin)屬(shu)(shu),作為大宗商(shang)品,仍(reng)然逃(tao)不開(kai)以(yi)供(gong)需(xu)缺(que)口(kou)驅(qu)動的(de)價格周期(qi)。在寬(kuan)松的(de)流動性下,市場會放大供(gong)給不足、需(xu)求回升的(de)缺(que)口(kou)。既然小(xiao)(xiao)金(jin)(jin)屬(shu)(shu)仍(reng)然受到(dao)供(gong)需(xu)驅(qu)動,那其運行周期(qi)自然也(ye)跟隨(sui)宏觀的(de)經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)周期(qi)。隨(sui)著全(quan)球數年(nian)貨(huo)幣寬(kuan)松,美國(guo)率先經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)企穩復蘇,歐洲、中國(guo)經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)也(ye)相繼(ji)迎來了(le)周期(qi)性的(de)反彈,環保政(zheng)策促進新能源經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)走強。同時中國(guo)供(gong)給側結構化改革(ge)的(de)推行,恰逢國(guo)際主要大宗商(shang)品巨頭在熊市中的(de)收(shou)縮,且基本(ben)金(jin)(jin)屬(shu)(shu)的(de)供(gong)給收(shou)縮也(ye)影響了(le)小(xiao)(xiao)金(jin)(jin)屬(shu)(shu)的(de)產(chan)出(chu)(chu),使得小(xiao)(xiao)金(jin)(jin)屬(shu)(shu)這種供(gong)給彈性小(xiao)(xiao),且多為伴生(sheng)的(de)品種容易產(chan)生(sheng)出(chu)(chu)人意料的(de)行情。
中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)證(zheng)(zheng)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)聲明(ming):凡本網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)注明(ming)“來(lai)(lai)源:中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)證(zheng)(zheng)券報(bao)(bao)(bao)·中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)證(zheng)(zheng)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)”的(de)所有作品(pin)(pin),版權(quan)均屬于中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)證(zheng)(zheng)券報(bao)(bao)(bao)、中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)證(zheng)(zheng)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)。中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)證(zheng)(zheng)券報(bao)(bao)(bao)·中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)證(zheng)(zheng)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)與作品(pin)(pin)作者(zhe)聯合(he)聲明(ming),任何(he)組(zu)織未(wei)經中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)證(zheng)(zheng)券報(bao)(bao)(bao)、中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)證(zheng)(zheng)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)以及(ji)作者(zhe)書面(mian)授權(quan)不得轉載(zai)(zai)、摘編或利(li)用其(qi)它(ta)(ta)方式使(shi)用上述作品(pin)(pin)。凡本網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)注明(ming)來(lai)(lai)源非中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)證(zheng)(zheng)券報(bao)(bao)(bao)·中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)證(zheng)(zheng)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)的(de)作品(pin)(pin),均轉載(zai)(zai)自其(qi)它(ta)(ta)媒(mei)體,轉載(zai)(zai)目的(de)在(zai)于更好服務讀者(zhe)、傳遞信息之需,并不代表本網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)贊同其(qi)觀(guan)點(dian),本網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)亦不對其(qi)真實性負(fu)責,持異議者(zhe)應與原出處單位主張權(quan)利(li)。
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Copyright 2001-2018 China Securities Journal. All Rights Reserved