中證網訊（記者 王姣）7月6日(ri)，人(ren)民幣兌美元(yuan)中間(jian)價調貶156個基(ji)點，報6.6336。分析人(ren)士指(zhi)出(chu)，美元(yuan)指(zhi)數(shu)再度突破95.5關口后(hou)，近日(ri)出(chu)現(xian)明顯回調，表明市場對美元(yuan)指(zhi)數(shu)繼續(xu)(xu)上行的動(dong)力存疑，由此主要非美貨(huo)幣預計將獲得喘息，人(ren)民幣匯(hui)率(lv)走(zou)勢有望(wang)繼續(xu)(xu)企穩。

　　周四美元指數紐約尾盤(pan)跌0.17%，報94.3866，連跌三日(ri)，因(yin)美國6月民間就業(ye)崗位增幅不及預期(qi)。

　　此外(wai)，美(mei)聯儲(chu)在美(mei)東時間周四(si)下(xia)午2點(dian)公(gong)布了貨幣(bi)政(zheng)策(ce)會(hui)議紀(ji)要。會(hui)議紀(ji)要表明，決策(ce)者仍看好(hao)美(mei)國(guo)經濟(ji)前景，但擔心貿易形勢的影響，紀(ji)要公(gong)布后，美(mei)元一度擴大跌幅。

　　值得注意的是，近期(qi)美(mei)元(yuan)(yuan)指(zhi)數(shu)持續回(hui)(hui)調(diao)，自6月28日(ri)(ri)觸及95.5383的階段高點后，美(mei)元(yuan)(yuan)指(zhi)數(shu)陷入回(hui)(hui)調(diao)，至7月5日(ri)(ri)收盤，區(qu)間跌幅約1%。

　　而受市場觀望(wang)情緒(xu)影響(xiang)，7月5日(ri)在、離岸人民幣匯(hui)率(lv)雙雙偏弱震蕩(dang)，其中在岸人民幣兌(dui)(dui)美(mei)元(yuan)16:30收盤報6.6372，較上一交易日(ri)跌(die)161點；23:30收報6.6371元(yuan)，較上一交易日(ri)夜盤收盤跌(die)41個基(ji)點；全天成交量擴大34.20億美(mei)元(yuan)至273.15億美(mei)元(yuan)。香港市場方面，離岸人民幣兌(dui)(dui)美(mei)元(yuan)匯(hui)率(lv)也有所走弱，最終收跌(die)0.22%，報6.6580。

　　市(shi)場人士(shi)指出，7月5日，美元(yuan)指數(shu)和人民(min)幣(bi)匯率盤中雙(shuang)雙(shuang)走弱，表明在當(dang)前局勢，投(tou)資(zi)者(zhe)傾向于觀望為主，短期人民(min)幣(bi)可能(neng)延續震蕩。不過往后看，年(nian)內(nei)美元(yuan)繼續上行的(de)空間可能(neng)有限(xian)，人民(min)幣(bi)匯率預計將回到總體企(qi)穩的(de)運行軌道。

　　興業研究(jiu)在最新研報指(zhi)出(chu)，近(jin)期美(mei)元指(zhi)數(shu)(shu)走強(qiang)，顯著修復了(le)匯率與美(mei)德(de)利(li)差(cha)之(zhi)間的關系。據(ju)興業研究(jiu)宏觀團隊的研究(jiu)，根(gen)據(ju)美(mei)德(de)短端國(guo)債利(li)差(cha)估值的美(mei)元指(zhi)數(shu)(shu)，已(yi)經(jing)逐漸出(chu)現高估的情況(kuang)。根(gen)據(ju)歷史經(jing)驗判斷，美(mei)元指(zhi)數(shu)(shu)的強(qiang)勢反彈或(huo)在7月進(jin)入尾(wei)聲。

　　興業研究認為，全(quan)球(qiu)貿(mao)易形勢生(sheng)變和中美貨幣(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)政策取向的差異誘發本輪人(ren)民(min)(min)(min)幣(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)貶(bian)值(zhi)，且多是對4、5月份美元走強(qiang)情況下人(ren)民(min)(min)(min)幣(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)橫盤的補跌；橫向比較，年初以來人(ren)民(min)(min)(min)幣(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)貶(bian)值(zhi)幅度不大。考慮(lv)到美元指數走強(qiang)即(ji)將(jiang)步入尾聲(sheng)，人(ren)民(min)(min)(min)幣(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)貶(bian)值(zhi)在(zai)情緒充分(fen)釋放后(hou)將(jiang)放緩，甚(shen)至可能(neng)出現反彈。

　　天風證(zheng)券固收首席(xi)孫彬彬同時表示，如(ru)果把(ba)這(zhe)一(yi)輪快速下跌視(shi)為前(qian)期貶(bian)(bian)值壓力的(de)(de)(de)(de)釋放，那么，人民幣貶(bian)(bian)值可能(neng)短期告一(yi)段落。其(qi)一(yi)，對比歷史單次跌幅(fu)而言(yan)，這(zhe)一(yi)次跌的(de)(de)(de)(de)幅(fu)度(du)已達歷史最大，高(gao)于“811”匯(hui)(hui)改下跌幅(fu)度(du)；其(qi)二，考慮到修復(fu)因素，依據前(qian)期美(mei)元指(zhi)數上漲的(de)(de)(de)(de)幅(fu)度(du)，人民幣貶(bian)(bian)值的(de)(de)(de)(de)幅(fu)度(du)基(ji)本(ben)也已補上；其(qi)三(san)，從資產配置(zhi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)利差交易(yi)角度(du)來(lai)(lai)看，中美(mei)利差近兩(liang)月來(lai)(lai)已經停止下行，人民幣匯(hui)(hui)率存在階(jie)段性穩定(ding)的(de)(de)(de)(de)基(ji)礎。

　　中(zhong)(zhong)國人(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)民(min)(min)(min)(min)(min)(min)(min)銀行授權中(zhong)(zhong)國外(wai)匯(hui)交易中(zhong)(zhong)心公布，2018年7月6日銀行間外(wai)匯(hui)市場人(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)民(min)(min)(min)(min)(min)(min)(min)幣(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)匯(hui)率中(zhong)(zhong)間價為：1美元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)對(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)人(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)民(min)(min)(min)(min)(min)(min)(min)幣(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)6.6336元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)，1歐元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)對(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)人(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)民(min)(min)(min)(min)(min)(min)(min)幣(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)7.7558元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)，100日元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)對(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)人(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)民(min)(min)(min)(min)(min)(min)(min)幣(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)5.9973元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)，1港元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)對(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)人(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)民(min)(min)(min)(min)(min)(min)(min)幣(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)0.84525元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)，1英鎊對(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)人(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)民(min)(min)(min)(min)(min)(min)(min)幣(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)8.7719元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)，1澳大(da)利亞(ya)元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)對(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)人(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)民(min)(min)(min)(min)(min)(min)(min)幣(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)4.9016元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)，1新西蘭(lan)元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)對(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)人(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)民(min)(min)(min)(min)(min)(min)(min)幣(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)4.5087元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)，1新加坡元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)對(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)人(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)民(min)(min)(min)(min)(min)(min)(min)幣(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)4.8617元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)，1瑞士法郎對(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)人(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)民(min)(min)(min)(min)(min)(min)(min)幣(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)6.6794元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)，1加拿(na)大(da)元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)對(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)人(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)民(min)(min)(min)(min)(min)(min)(min)幣(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)5.0511元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)，人(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)民(min)(min)(min)(min)(min)(min)(min)幣(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)1元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)對(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)0.60945馬來(lai)西亞(ya)林吉特，人(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)民(min)(min)(min)(min)(min)(min)(min)幣(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)1元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)對(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)9.5223俄羅斯(si)盧布，人(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)民(min)(min)(min)(min)(min)(min)(min)幣(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)1元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)對(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)2.0419南非蘭(lan)特，人(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)民(min)(min)(min)(min)(min)(min)(min)幣(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)1元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)對(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)168.62韓元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)，人(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)民(min)(min)(min)(min)(min)(min)(min)幣(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)1元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)對(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)0.55371阿(a)聯酋迪(di)拉姆，人(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)民(min)(min)(min)(min)(min)(min)(min)幣(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)1元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)對(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)0.56536沙特里亞(ya)爾，人(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)民(min)(min)(min)(min)(min)(min)(min)幣(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)1元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)對(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)41.7200匈牙(ya)利福林，人(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)民(min)(min)(min)(min)(min)(min)(min)幣(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)1元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)對(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)0.56103波(bo)蘭(lan)茲羅提(ti)，人(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)民(min)(min)(min)(min)(min)(min)(min)幣(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)1元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)對(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)0.9608丹麥(mai)克朗，人(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)民(min)(min)(min)(min)(min)(min)(min)幣(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)1元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)對(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)1.3218瑞典(dian)克朗，人(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)民(min)(min)(min)(min)(min)(min)(min)幣(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)1元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)對(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)1.2150挪威克朗，人(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)民(min)(min)(min)(min)(min)(min)(min)幣(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)1元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)對(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)0.69372土耳其里拉，人(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)民(min)(min)(min)(min)(min)(min)(min)幣(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)1元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)對(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)2.8998墨西哥(ge)比索，人(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)民(min)(min)(min)(min)(min)(min)(min)幣(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)1元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)對(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)5.0039泰銖。