今年(nian)以(yi)來,港股(gu)(gu)市(shi)場雖然呈現(xian)(xian)(xian)大幅波動(dong)態(tai)勢,但總體上漲,表現(xian)(xian)(xian)強(qiang)于(yu)A股(gu)(gu)市(shi)場。同時,衡(heng)量A股(gu)(gu)與H股(gu)(gu)股(gu)(gu)價比的恒生滬深(shen)港通AH股(gu)(gu)溢(yi)價指(zhi)數自2018年(nian)2月6日(ri)達到(dao)年(nian)內(nei)高點(dian)138.96點(dian)后,出現(xian)(xian)(xian)了持續(xu)走低(di)的現(xian)(xian)(xian)象。4月30日(ri)盤中該指(zhi)數更(geng)是跌穿了120點(dian)的整數關口(kou),創2017年(nian)5月17日(ri)以(yi)來新低(di)。
市場(chang)分析人士表示(shi),AH股(gu)溢價(jia)指數持續走低(di),表明占該指數大比(bi)重的金(jin)(jin)融(rong)股(gu)A股(gu)與H股(gu)之間走勢(shi)出現持續的分化(hua),H股(gu)表現明顯偏強。機構更(geng)看好H股(gu)市場(chang)金(jin)(jin)融(rong)股(gu)未來走勢(shi)。
溢(yi)價指數持續走低
恒(heng)生滬深港(gang)通(tong)AH股(gu)溢(yi)價指數主要用于度量A股(gu)及H股(gu)的(de)(de)價差比(bi)(bi),該(gai)指數數值(zhi)越(yue)高(gao),則證明A股(gu)的(de)(de)溢(yi)價越(yue)高(gao),A股(gu)相對H股(gu)越(yue)貴。恒(heng)生滬深港(gang)通(tong)AH股(gu)溢(yi)價指數中(zhong)金融股(gu)占絕大(da)部分的(de)(de)比(bi)(bi)重,因此其(qi)成份股(gu)中(zhong)金融股(gu)的(de)(de)走勢(shi)很(hen)大(da)程度上左右該(gai)指數的(de)(de)走勢(shi)。
數(shu)(shu)(shu)據顯示(shi),今年(nian)(nian)以(yi)來,恒生滬深(shen)港(gang)通(tong)AH股(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)溢(yi)價(jia)(jia)指(zhi)數(shu)(shu)(shu)自2月(yue)(yue)6日(ri)(ri)盤中觸及138.96的(de)年(nian)(nian)內(nei)高點后(hou),一路下跌(die)。截(jie)至5月(yue)(yue)2日(ri)(ri)收盤,該(gai)指(zhi)數(shu)(shu)(shu)報(bao)120.12。前一交(jiao)易日(ri)(ri)盤中,該(gai)指(zhi)數(shu)(shu)(shu)更是跌(die)破了120的(de)整數(shu)(shu)(shu)關口,刷新2017年(nian)(nian)5月(yue)(yue)17日(ri)(ri)以(yi)來的(de)新低。目前AH股(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)溢(yi)價(jia)(jia)指(zhi)數(shu)(shu)(shu)追(zhui)蹤的(de)99只(zhi)成份股(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)中,包括國泰君安(an)、中國太保、建設銀(yin)(yin)行(xing)、中國銀(yin)(yin)行(xing)、招商銀(yin)(yin)行(xing)、農業銀(yin)(yin)行(xing)、工商銀(yin)(yin)行(xing)、中國平安(an)等多只(zhi)權重金(jin)融股(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)AH比價(jia)(jia)低于指(zhi)數(shu)(shu)(shu)均值,并且多數(shu)(shu)(shu)金(jin)融股(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)近期A股(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)對H股(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)溢(yi)價(jia)(jia)大幅縮小(xiao)。目前恒生滬深(shen)港(gang)通(tong)AH股(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)溢(yi)價(jia)(jia)指(zhi)數(shu)(shu)(shu)追(zhui)蹤的(de)99只(zhi)成分股(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)中,AH股(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)中溢(yi)價(jia)(jia)率超(chao)過100%的(de)有22只(zhi),超(chao)過50%的(de)有52家,中國平安(an)、鞍鋼(gang)股(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)份和海(hai)螺水泥3只(zhi)股(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)價(jia)(jia)出現倒掛。
截至5月2日收盤,今(jin)年(nian)以來恒生(sheng)指(zhi)數漲(zhang)(zhang)幅2.69%,而上證綜指(zhi)跌(die)幅6.83%,港股(gu)市(shi)(shi)場總體表(biao)現(xian)強于A股(gu)市(shi)(shi)場,并且兩(liang)市(shi)(shi)主要指(zhi)數走勢分化自(zi)2月上旬至今(jin)也出現(xian)了(le)分化態(tai)勢。值得注意的是(shi),恒生(sheng)港股(gu)通中(zhong)(zhong)國內地銀(yin)(yin)(yin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)指(zhi)數漲(zhang)(zhang)幅11.29%,領漲(zhang)(zhang)17個(ge)恒生(sheng)主要指(zhi)數。其成份股(gu)中(zhong)(zhong)漲(zhang)(zhang)幅靠前的郵儲銀(yin)(yin)(yin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)年(nian)初至今(jin)漲(zhang)(zhang)幅32.51%,農業(ye)銀(yin)(yin)(yin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)漲(zhang)(zhang)22.25%,中(zhong)(zhong)信銀(yin)(yin)(yin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)漲(zhang)(zhang)14.90%,建設銀(yin)(yin)(yin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)漲(zhang)(zhang)14.31%,中(zhong)(zhong)國銀(yin)(yin)(yin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)漲(zhang)(zhang)10.42%,工商銀(yin)(yin)(yin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)漲(zhang)(zhang)10.17%,交(jiao)通銀(yin)(yin)(yin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)漲(zhang)(zhang)8.79%,招商銀(yin)(yin)(yin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)漲(zhang)(zhang)8.68%,光大(da)銀(yin)(yin)(yin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)漲(zhang)(zhang)7.67%,重慶農商行(xing)(xing)(xing)漲(zhang)(zhang)5.96%,中(zhong)(zhong)資銀(yin)(yin)(yin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)H股(gu)在金(jin)融(rong)板塊中(zhong)(zhong)表(biao)現(xian)尤其突出。
而與港(gang)股(gu)(gu)(gu)市場普漲行情相反,A股(gu)(gu)(gu)市場上,上證50指(zhi)數(shu)年(nian)內跌幅為(wei)7.26%,該(gai)指(zhi)數(shu)50只成(cheng)份股(gu)(gu)(gu)中(zhong),38只個股(gu)(gu)(gu)年(nian)初(chu)至(zhi)(zhi)今出(chu)現(xian)跌幅。各大銀行股(gu)(gu)(gu)中(zhong),除了農業銀行和招(zhao)商銀行略有上漲,年(nian)初(chu)至(zhi)(zhi)今漲幅分(fen)別為(wei)0.78%和1.86%外,其他銀行股(gu)(gu)(gu)紛紛收跌,而保險股(gu)(gu)(gu)表現(xian)較銀行股(gu)(gu)(gu)表現(xian)更(geng)弱(ruo),多數(shu)保險股(gu)(gu)(gu)均出(chu)現(xian)雙位數(shu)跌幅。金融板塊個股(gu)(gu)(gu)多數(shu)出(chu)現(xian)走(zou)勢明(ming)顯分(fen)化的現(xian)象,導致恒生滬深港(gang)通AH股(gu)(gu)(gu)溢價指(zhi)數(shu)持續(xu)走(zou)低。
H股金融板塊優勢明顯
市場(chang)(chang)(chang)分析人(ren)士表示,近日公(gong)布(bu)的銀(yin)行(xing)業(ye)一季度業(ye)績好于市場(chang)(chang)(chang)預期(qi),且資管新規(gui)延(yan)長了過渡期(qi),這些都利好金融板塊(kuai)尤其是中(zhong)資銀(yin)行(xing)股(gu)(gu)的表現(xian)。然而(er)港股(gu)(gu)市場(chang)(chang)(chang)相對A股(gu)(gu)市場(chang)(chang)(chang)而(er)言,具有更明顯的優勢,因此H股(gu)(gu)金融板塊(kuai)表現(xian)更為突出。
首先(xian),兩地(di)市(shi)場投(tou)資者(zhe)有不同風(feng)險偏好,A股(gu)(gu)投(tou)資者(zhe)以散戶為(wei)主,H股(gu)(gu)則以機(ji)構(gou)(gou)投(tou)資者(zhe)為(wei)主。散戶更(geng)(geng)加關注股(gu)(gu)價波動(dong)以及帶(dai)來的(de)(de)(de)短(duan)期收益(yi),而機(ji)構(gou)(gou)投(tou)資者(zhe)更(geng)(geng)側重(zhong)企業的(de)(de)(de)長遠發展(zhan)以及現金分紅(hong)能力。今年(nian)2月以來,外圍(wei)不確定因素使市(shi)場交(jiao)易情緒受到(dao)打擊,憂慮情緒升(sheng)溫,而在這(zhe)種環境下(xia),港股(gu)(gu)市(shi)場上(shang)的(de)(de)(de)機(ji)構(gou)(gou)投(tou)資者(zhe)以結構(gou)(gou)性布局為(wei)多(duo),持倉更(geng)(geng)為(wei)穩定,H股(gu)(gu)股(gu)(gu)價受情緒左右相對較(jiao)小。
其(qi)次,中資銀行股(gu)(gu)由于(yu)中國經濟復(fu)蘇、凈(jing)息(xi)差見底等因素走勢(shi)強勁,而港(gang)股(gu)(gu)近期新政密集落(luo)地,有利于(yu)提(ti)高(gao)市場交(jiao)投活躍(yue)度,各券商(shang)股(gu)(gu)也受到提(ti)振。此外,港(gang)股(gu)(gu)市場金(jin)融板塊整體估值(zhi)偏(pian)低(di),存在補漲要求。
中金發表(biao)(biao)最新(xin)(xin)報告表(biao)(biao)示,中資銀行股(gu)(gu)今年(nian)首季業(ye)績符合預期(qi),整體(ti)凈(jing)利息收(shou)入(ru)及利潤同比增(zeng)長7.2%及5.3%,增(zeng)速(su)較2017年(nian)增(zeng)長為(wei)快。隨著(zhu)資管新(xin)(xin)規(gui)落(luo)地(di),預計(ji)流動性邊際放松,股(gu)(gu)份行營收(shou)將(jiang)持續(xu)改(gai)善。該(gai)行表(biao)(biao)示,維持對(dui)中資銀行股(gu)(gu)今明兩年(nian)盈利增(zeng)長預測為(wei)8.7%及9.7%,重申(shen)中資銀行迎(ying)來(lai)“水漲船高(gao)”的第(di)二階段,認為(wei)H股(gu)(gu)表(biao)(biao)現繼續(xu)好于(yu)A股(gu)(gu)。
瑞銀(yin)最新研究報告稱,內地銀(yin)行(xing)經(jing)營趨(qu)勢(shi)大致符(fu)合預(yu)期,由于第一(yi)季凈息差擴大,大型銀(yin)行(xing)凈利(li)息收入達雙位數增長,而資產(chan)質素(su)趨(qu)向穩定(ding)。中資銀(yin)行(xing)股(gu)H股(gu)估值較低,且(qie)基本因素(su)穩健,相信將會是(shi)防守性選擇。
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