——國家統計局城市司高級統計師余秋梅解讀2014年9月份CPI、PPI數據
國家統(tong)計局(ju)今天發布(bu)的2014年9月(yue)份全國居民消費(fei)價格指(zhi)數(CPI)和工業生產(chan)者出廠價格指(zhi)數(PPI)數據顯(xian)示,CPI環(huan)比(bi)上(shang)漲0.5%,同(tong)比(bi)上(shang)漲1.6%;PPI環(huan)比(bi)下降0.4%,同(tong)比(bi)下降1.8%。對此,國家統(tong)計局(ju)城市(shi)司(si)高級統(tong)計師余(yu)秋梅進行(xing)了(le)解讀。
從環(huan)比(bi)數據(ju)看(kan),9月份食品價(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)上(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)0.8%,比(bi)上(shang)(shang)月擴(kuo)(kuo)大0.1個百(bai)分(fen)(fen)(fen)點(dian)(dian)(dian),影(ying)響(xiang)CPI上(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)0.28個百(bai)分(fen)(fen)(fen)點(dian)(dian)(dian)。其中(zhong),鮮菜價(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)上(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)3.9%,漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)幅比(bi)上(shang)(shang)月擴(kuo)(kuo)大2.1個百(bai)分(fen)(fen)(fen)點(dian)(dian)(dian);肉禽和(he)蛋價(jia)(jia)(jia)漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)幅回落,漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)幅分(fen)(fen)(fen)別(bie)為1.4%和(he)1.9%;鮮果(guo)價(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)由降轉升,漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)幅為1.5%。此外,非食品價(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)由上(shang)(shang)月下降0.1%轉為上(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)0.3%,影(ying)響(xiang)CPI上(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)0.17個百(bai)分(fen)(fen)(fen)點(dian)(dian)(dian)。其中(zhong),受開學季(ji)影(ying)響(xiang),學前教育(yu)、高等教育(yu)和(he)教材價(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)分(fen)(fen)(fen)別(bie)上(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)3.7%、3.6%和(he)1.0%,合計影(ying)響(xiang)CPI上(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)0.10個百(bai)分(fen)(fen)(fen)點(dian)(dian)(dian);服裝換(huan)季(ji),衣著價(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)上(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)1.0%,影(ying)響(xiang)CPI上(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)0.08個百(bai)分(fen)(fen)(fen)點(dian)(dian)(dian)。
從同(tong)比數據看(kan),CPI同(tong)比漲(zhang)(zhang)幅比上(shang)(shang)月(yue)回落了0.4個(ge)百(bai)(bai)分點,一方面,由于去年(nian)同(tong)月(yue)環比上(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)較多,抬(tai)高了今年(nian)的對比基數,致使今年(nian)9月(yue)的翹尾因(yin)素(su)(su)比上(shang)(shang)月(yue)減(jian)少了0.7個(ge)百(bai)(bai)分點;另一方面,9月(yue)新漲(zhang)(zhang)價(jia)因(yin)素(su)(su)雖有所增(zeng)加(jia),但僅為1.3個(ge)百(bai)(bai)分點,低于近五年(nian)的平均(jun)水平(見下圖)。從分類看(kan),部分消費(fei)品和服務(wu)(wu)價(jia)格(ge)(ge)仍上(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)較多,如鮮果價(jia)格(ge)(ge)上(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)16.7%,蛋價(jia)上(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)12.9%,雞肉價(jia)格(ge)(ge)上(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)10.4%,家庭(ting)服務(wu)(wu)價(jia)格(ge)(ge)上(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)9.0%,停車費(fei)上(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)5.1%,學前教(jiao)育(yu)價(jia)格(ge)(ge)上(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)5.7%,高等(deng)教(jiao)育(yu)價(jia)格(ge)(ge)上(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)3.7%。
二、工業生產者出廠價格環比下降,同比降幅有所擴大
從發布(bu)的分行(xing)(xing)業(ye)出廠(chang)價(jia)格環比數據看(kan),在30個主要工(gong)業(ye)行(xing)(xing)業(ye)中,7個行(xing)(xing)業(ye)產(chan)品價(jia)格上漲,5個行(xing)(xing)業(ye)持(chi)平,18個行(xing)(xing)業(ye)下降(jiang)。其中,燃氣(qi)生產(chan)和(he)供應價(jia)格上漲0.6%,水的生產(chan)和(he)供應價(jia)格上漲0.2%,有色金(jin)屬冶煉(lian)和(he)壓延(yan)加(jia)工(gong)價(jia)格上漲0.1%;石(shi)油(you)和(he)天(tian)然氣(qi)開(kai)采價(jia)格下降(jiang)3.1%,石(shi)油(you)加(jia)工(gong)、黑色金(jin)屬冶煉(lian)和(he)壓延(yan)加(jia)工(gong)價(jia)格均下降(jiang)1.9%,上述三項合計影(ying)響(xiang)本(ben)月(yue)工(gong)業(ye)生產(chan)者(zhe)出廠(chang)價(jia)格總水平下降(jiang)約0.3個百分點(dian)。
本(ben)月工(gong)業生產者(zhe)出廠價格環比和同(tong)比降(jiang)幅(fu)有所擴大,主要原因是(shi)原油(you)、成(cheng)品油(you)、鋼材價格降(jiang)幅(fu)加(jia)深。同(tong)時(shi),近期(qi)國際(ji)大宗商品價格下(xia)行對工(gong)業品價格形(xing)成(cheng)的壓力(li)也有所加(jia)大。
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