中(zhong)國社科院財(cai)經(jing)(jing)戰略研(yan)究院22日發(fa)布(bu)的宏觀(guan)經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)(ji)形勢(shi)季度(du)分析報告(gao)稱,中(zhong)國經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)(ji)延續去年四季度(du)的下(xia)(xia)滑(hua)態勢(shi),預(yu)(yu)(yu)計今年一(yi)季度(du)GDP增(zeng)(zeng)速下(xia)(xia)滑(hua)至6.85%左(zuo)右,消費(fei)物價指數(shu)同比(bi)上漲(zhang)1.2%左(zuo)右。因(yin)一(yi)季度(du)經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)(ji)下(xia)(xia)滑(hua)幅度(du)較大(da),全年實現預(yu)(yu)(yu)期增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)目標難度(du)加大(da)。需要正(zheng)視經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)(ji)減速的客觀(guan)規律,將(jiang)“穩增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)、控風險(xian)(xian)、防通縮(suo)、調結構(gou)、促改(gai)革、惠民生(sheng)(sheng)”的政(zheng)策(ce)結合起(qi)來(lai),統一(yi)施行,在經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)(ji)減速過(guo)程中(zhong)實現結構(gou)調整。二季度(du)財(cai)政(zheng)政(zheng)策(ce)需加力(li)增(zeng)(zeng)效(xiao)(xiao),防止(zhi)資(zi)金沉淀;貨幣政(zheng)策(ce)應加強與財(cai)政(zheng)政(zheng)策(ce)配(pei)合,防止(zhi)地(di)方債發(fa)行產(chan)生(sheng)(sheng)擠出效(xiao)(xiao)應,繼續降準(zhun)降息。就中(zhong)長(chang)期政(zheng)策(ce)而言,仍(reng)需堅持(chi)深(shen)化(hua)改(gai)革,促進經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)(ji)結構(gou)調整和創新驅動(dong)的內生(sheng)(sheng)經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)(ji)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)。由于(yu)先行指標略微下(xia)(xia)移,考慮到去年的基數(shu)效(xiao)(xiao)應,二季度(du)經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)(ji)增(zeng)(zeng)速仍(reng)有下(xia)(xia)行風險(xian)(xian),需要穩增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)政(zheng)策(ce)加力(li)增(zeng)(zeng)效(xiao)(xiao)以對沖(chong)下(xia)(xia)行風險(xian)(xian)。預(yu)(yu)(yu)計二季度(du)經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)(ji)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)6.8%左(zuo)右,消費(fei)物價指數(shu)上漲(zhang)1.5%左(zuo)右。二季度(du)政(zheng)策(ce)加力(li)增(zeng)(zeng)效(xiao)(xiao)后(hou),三四季度(du)經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)(ji)企(qi)穩回升,全年預(yu)(yu)(yu)期經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)(ji)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)目標可以實現。