國際(ji)貨幣基金組織(IMF)9日在香港發布了最新一期(qi)《亞(ya)太(tai)地(di)區(qu)經濟展望》報(bao)告。報(bao)告指出,亞(ya)太(tai)地(di)區(qu)的(de)通(tong)脹過程(cheng)已(yi)經變得具(ju)有更(geng)強后顧(gu)性(xing),預(yu)期(qi)對于驅(qu)動(dong)通(tong)脹的(de)影響減弱(ruo),未來亞(ya)太(tai)地(di)區(qu)的(de)通(tong)脹可能持(chi)續(xu)處于較高(gao)水平(ping)。
報告表明,目(mu)前(qian)亞太地區呈現經濟快速(su)增長而通脹依然很低的(de)現象,許多(duo)經濟體的(de)核心通脹低于目(mu)標水(shui)平。這一現象主要受到暫(zan)時性全球因素驅動,例(li)如(ru)輸入(ru)型通脹水(shui)平不高(gao)。
IMF亞(ya)洲及太平(ping)洋部主管(guan)(guan)李昌鏞提醒(xing),在亞(ya)太地(di)區(qu),盡管(guan)(guan)通(tong)脹(zhang)預(yu)期(qi)總體(ti)上與(yu)目標水平(ping)有效錨(mao)定,但通(tong)脹(zhang)過程已(yi)變得具有更(geng)強的后顧性,預(yu)期(qi)對驅動(dong)通(tong)脹(zhang)的影響已(yi)經(jing)減弱。
IMF的(de)(de)(de)(de)報(bao)告還指出(chu),一些證據顯示,通(tong)(tong)脹(zhang)對經(jing)濟疲軟的(de)(de)(de)(de)敏(min)感性(xing)下降,即菲(fei)利(li)普(pu)斯曲(qu)(qu)線(標示失(shi)業與通(tong)(tong)脹(zhang)存在交(jiao)替關系的(de)(de)(de)(de)曲(qu)(qu)線)變(bian)得平(ping)(ping)坦。因(yin)此,一旦美國通(tong)(tong)脹(zhang)和大(da)宗(zong)商品價格等全球因(yin)素(su)改(gai)變(bian)當前有利(li)的(de)(de)(de)(de)方向,亞太地區(qu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)通(tong)(tong)脹(zhang)水(shui)平(ping)(ping)可(ke)能上(shang)升,且后顧性(xing)增(zeng)強(qiang)可(ke)能使通(tong)(tong)脹(zhang)持續處于(yu)較高(gao)水(shui)平(ping)(ping)。加之菲(fei)利(li)普(pu)斯曲(qu)(qu)線變(bian)平(ping)(ping)坦,降低通(tong)(tong)脹(zhang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)產出(chu)成本(ben)會(hui)增(zeng)大(da)。
對(dui)此,IMF建議(yi),政策制(zhi)訂(ding)者(zhe)應保(bao)持警惕,隨時準備采取行動,針對(dui)通(tong)脹(zhang)壓力的(de)早(zao)期(qi)跡象(xiang)采取應對(dui)措(cuo)施。例如,改善貨幣政策框架和央行信息溝通(tong)效果(guo),加(jia)強(qiang)預期(qi)對(dui)驅動通(tong)脹(zhang)所起的(de)作(zuo)用,從而降低通(tong)脹(zhang)粘性;增加(jia)匯(hui)率的(de)靈活(huo)性,減輕(qing)輸入型通(tong)脹(zhang)的(de)影響;強(qiang)化宏觀審慎政策,應對(dui)干擾金融穩定的(de)風(feng)險。
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