今年以來,國內工(gong)(gong)業品期(qi)(qi)貨(huo)總(zong)體強勢(shi)震蕩,前兩個(ge)月(yue)走(zou)勢(shi)尤為強勁。在流動性(xing)寬松預(yu)期(qi)(qi)和經濟(ji)基本面下行(xing)預(yu)期(qi)(qi)的雙重博弈之下,工(gong)(gong)業品能否繼續走(zou)高?東吳期(qi)(qi)貨(huo)有色研究員張華(hua)偉認為,未來工(gong)(gong)業品仍存五大利好支撐(cheng),但(dan)同時也要(yao)注意三個(ge)風險點(dian)。投資角度(du)看,銅價有望超預(yu)期(qi)(qi)上漲。
中(zhong)國證券(quan)報:今年以來國內工業(ye)品期貨先揚后(hou)抑,漲幅一(yi)度(du)超過10%,背(bei)后(hou)原因是什么?
張華(hua)偉:今年(nian)(nian)以(yi)來工(gong)(gong)(gong)業(ye)品(pin)價(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)先揚后(hou)(hou)(hou)抑,其中1月(yue)(yue)出(chu)現(xian)較強反(fan)彈,主(zhu)要(yao)原(yuan)因(yin)在(zai)于去(qu)年(nian)(nian)四季(ji)(ji)度(du)工(gong)(gong)(gong)業(ye)品(pin)價(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)大跌后(hou)(hou)(hou),利(li)空得(de)到(dao)集中釋(shi)放,期(qi)貨市場(chang)價(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)得(de)到(dao)修復(fu)性反(fan)彈。多種因(yin)素(su)疊加(jia),導致去(qu)年(nian)(nian)四季(ji)(ji)度(du)工(gong)(gong)(gong)業(ye)品(pin)價(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)下(xia)跌,但進入2019年(nian)(nian)后(hou)(hou)(hou),隨著外部擾動(dong)(dong)因(yin)素(su)緩解、房(fang)地(di)產(chan)投資好于預(yu)期(qi)、原(yuan)油價(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)大漲(zhang)等因(yin)素(su)提(ti)振下(xia),工(gong)(gong)(gong)業(ye)品(pin)價(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)在(zai)1月(yue)(yue)強勢反(fan)彈。2月(yue)(yue)份(fen)工(gong)(gong)(gong)業(ye)品(pin)價(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)延續反(fan)彈,但動(dong)(dong)能有所減弱。進入3月(yue)(yue)份(fen)后(hou)(hou)(hou)工(gong)(gong)(gong)業(ye)品(pin)轉(zhuan)跌,主(zhu)要(yao)原(yuan)因(yin)在(zai)于市場(chang)預(yu)期(qi)的經(jing)濟(ji)提(ti)振政(zheng)策(ce)落空,以(yi)及(ji)春(chun)節后(hou)(hou)(hou)傳統消費旺季(ji)(ji)到(dao)來下(xia)游需求復(fu)蘇(su)緩慢,去(qu)庫(ku)存(cun)速度(du)不及(ji)預(yu)期(qi)。2019年(nian)(nian)我國國內經(jing)濟(ji)增(zeng)長目標定(ding)為6%-6.5%,為時隔兩年(nian)(nian)之后(hou)(hou)(hou)首次經(jing)濟(ji)增(zeng)長目標區(qu)(qu)間下(xia)調(diao),既反(fan)映了目前(qian)中國經(jing)濟(ji)下(xia)行(xing)壓力(li)較大,也(ye)反(fan)映了政(zheng)府將(jiang)不再推(tui)行(xing)“大水漫灌(guan)”式政(zheng)策(ce)。從全國中央和地(di)方財政(zheng)安排(pai)上也(ye)可以(yi)看出(chu)財政(zheng)政(zheng)策(ce)相對中性,未來基建(jian)投資回升(sheng)力(li)度(du)有限。2019年(nian)(nian)中央安排(pai)財政(zheng)赤(chi)字(zi)2.76萬億元,赤(chi)字(zi)率(lv)為2.8%,比(bi)(bi)上年(nian)(nian)僅(jin)提(ti)高0.2個百分(fen)點。擬安排(pai)的地(di)方政(zheng)府專(zhuan)項債(zhai)券(quan)2.15萬億元,同(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)加(jia)8000億元,低(di)于此前(qian)的預(yu)期(qi)。從去(qu)庫(ku)存(cun)速度(du)看,3月(yue)(yue)下(xia)半月(yue)(yue)以(yi)來,黑色(se)系建(jian)材去(qu)庫(ku)存(cun)速度(du)不及(ji)預(yu)期(qi);甲醇、橡膠(jiao)等多個化工(gong)(gong)(gong)產(chan)品(pin)庫(ku)存(cun)處于近(jin)些年(nian)(nian)高位;有色(se)金屬銅(tong)冶煉廠庫(ku)存(cun)有積壓現(xian)象,保(bao)稅區(qu)(qu)庫(ku)存(cun)快速上升(sheng),鋁社會庫(ku)存(cun)雖(sui)低(di)于去(qu)年(nian)(nian)同(tong)期(qi),但仍遠高于2018年(nian)(nian)之前(qian)的同(tong)期(qi)水平,反(fan)映了工(gong)(gong)(gong)業(ye)品(pin)社會總需求不足,價(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)出(chu)現(xian)了回調(diao)。
中國證券(quan)報(bao):從流(liu)動性和(he)經濟基本面角度綜(zong)合(he)來看(kan),今年工業品價格將如何演繹?
張華偉:我(wo)們對于二(er)季(ji)度(du)及下(xia)半年工業(ye)品(pin)價格走(zou)勢持謹慎樂觀(guan)的(de)(de)(de)態度(du)。主(zhu)要原因在(zai)于以下(xia)幾點:一是(shi)(shi)包括中國(guo)(guo)(guo)在(zai)內(nei)的(de)(de)(de)全球主(zhu)要經(jing)濟體貨幣流動性趨于進一步寬松;二(er)是(shi)(shi)中國(guo)(guo)(guo)大幅度(du)減稅讓利,企(qi)業(ye)投資(zi)意(yi)愿上升(sheng);三是(shi)(shi)外部(bu)擾動因素緩解;四是(shi)(shi)中國(guo)(guo)(guo)基建投資(zi)增速回升(sheng),一定程度(du)上也將拉動國(guo)(guo)(guo)內(nei)工業(ye)品(pin)需求(qiu)增長;五是(shi)(shi)從(cong)經(jing)濟周期來看,下(xia)半年國(guo)(guo)(guo)內(nei)或(huo)再次(ci)進入補庫存階段。但是(shi)(shi)以下(xia)因素也將抑制(zhi)(zhi)工業(ye)品(pin)需求(qiu)的(de)(de)(de)釋放和價格反彈空間:一是(shi)(shi)全球經(jing)濟下(xia)行(xing)壓力(li)仍較大;二(er)是(shi)(shi)全球主(zhu)要經(jing)濟體包括中國(guo)(guo)(guo)社會總杠桿偏高,抑制(zhi)(zhi)了(le)(le)(le)財(cai)政與(yu)貨幣政策的(de)(de)(de)空間,也抑制(zhi)(zhi)了(le)(le)(le)投資(zi)與(yu)消(xiao)費(fei)需求(qiu)。三是(shi)(shi)國(guo)(guo)(guo)內(nei)在(zai)前幾年為了(le)(le)(le)穩(wen)增長對汽(qi)車、家電市場(chang)推出了(le)(le)(le)多項(xiang)刺激消(xiao)費(fei)的(de)(de)(de)政策,隨(sui)著這(zhe)些政策的(de)(de)(de)逐漸退出,短期內(nei)國(guo)(guo)(guo)內(nei)需求(qiu)增速下(xia)降明(ming)顯。
中國證券報:如(ru)何看待今(jin)年工業品(pin)期貨投(tou)資機(ji)會?
張華(hua)偉:今年(nian)工業品(pin)(pin)投資機會由于(yu)(yu)宏觀經濟環(huan)境不(bu)(bu)(bu)是特別有利(li),因此主要還要參考(kao)各(ge)品(pin)(pin)種各(ge)自的(de)(de)(de)(de)供(gong)需基(ji)本面,在(zai)(zai)需求(qiu)端難有超預期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)釋放(fang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)前提下(xia),供(gong)應端成(cheng)了(le)重要的(de)(de)(de)(de)考(kao)量(liang)因素(su)。從這一(yi)(yi)點(dian)看,基(ji)本金屬當中(zhong),銅(tong)(tong)(tong)仍(reng)有可(ke)(ke)能(neng)脫穎(ying)而出。根據ICSG的(de)(de)(de)(de)數據,銅(tong)(tong)(tong)礦山產能(neng)自去年(nian)下(xia)半(ban)年(nian)以來一(yi)(yi)直處于(yu)(yu)同比收(shou)縮(suo)狀(zhuang)態(tai),且(qie)供(gong)應中(zhong)斷事(shi)件頻增(zeng),抑制(zhi)銅(tong)(tong)(tong)精(jing)礦供(gong)應增(zeng)長(chang),從近期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)銅(tong)(tong)(tong)精(jing)礦冶(ye)煉加工費用大幅下(xia)調也可(ke)(ke)以看出這一(yi)(yi)點(dian)。國(guo)內(nei)由于(yu)(yu)環(huan)保政(zheng)策不(bu)(bu)(bu)斷趨嚴,對廢(fei)(fei)銅(tong)(tong)(tong)進(jin)(jin)口不(bu)(bu)(bu)斷收(shou)緊,在(zai)(zai)禁(jin)止進(jin)(jin)口七類(lei)廢(fei)(fei)銅(tong)(tong)(tong)后,今年(nian)六(liu)類(lei)廢(fei)(fei)銅(tong)(tong)(tong)也被(bei)歸入限制(zhi)進(jin)(jin)口類(lei),國(guo)內(nei)廢(fei)(fei)銅(tong)(tong)(tong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)回(hui)收(shou)利(li)用能(neng)力短期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)難以釋放(fang),難以彌補進(jin)(jin)口廢(fei)(fei)銅(tong)(tong)(tong)減少(shao)的(de)(de)(de)(de)缺口,勢(shi)必有一(yi)(yi)部分(fen)需求(qiu)被(bei)精(jing)煉銅(tong)(tong)(tong)替代(dai)。從需求(qiu)端來看,銅(tong)(tong)(tong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)需求(qiu)也要好于(yu)(yu)一(yi)(yi)般工業品(pin)(pin),因銅(tong)(tong)(tong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)良好工業屬性難以被(bei)替代(dai),新能(neng)源、電動(dong)汽(qi)車(che)快速增(zeng)長(chang)將拉動(dong)銅(tong)(tong)(tong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)需求(qiu)。同時中(zhong)國(guo)的(de)(de)(de)(de)“一(yi)(yi)帶(dai)一(yi)(yi)路”倡議獲得(de)更(geng)多(duo)國(guo)家的(de)(de)(de)(de)響(xiang)應,沿線國(guo)家的(de)(de)(de)(de)基(ji)礎設施(shi)建(jian)設投資預計(ji)將快速增(zeng)長(chang),也將刺激銅(tong)(tong)(tong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)消費需求(qiu)膨脹(zhang)。目前銅(tong)(tong)(tong)全(quan)球顯性庫(ku)存(cun)偏(pian)低,在(zai)(zai)全(quan)球流動(dong)性趨于(yu)(yu)進(jin)(jin)一(yi)(yi)步寬松的(de)(de)(de)(de)情形下(xia),一(yi)(yi)旦全(quan)球貿(mao)易環(huan)境得(de)到實質性改(gai)善,銅(tong)(tong)(tong)價或(huo)將超預期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)上(shang)漲。
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