昨日,兩市沖高回(hui)落,繼續(xu)調整,但申(shen)萬通(tong)信(xin)行(xing)業(ye)上漲(zhang)1.47%,行(xing)業(ye)漲(zhang)幅(fu)位列(lie)行(xing)業(ye)板塊(kuai)(kuai)第一位。板塊(kuai)(kuai)內華脈(mo)科技(ji)、中(zhong)(zhong)通(tong)國(guo)脈(mo)、匯源通(tong)信(xin)、縱橫通(tong)信(xin)、欣(xin)天科技(ji)、中(zhong)(zhong)光(guang)防雷等多股漲(zhang)停,新(xin)易盛、天喻信(xin)息、神宇股份等個股也均有(you)所上漲(zhang)。對于通(tong)信(xin)行(xing)業(ye),西(xi)南證券表示,外(wai)部(bu)環境變化導致(zhi)板塊(kuai)(kuai)反復震蕩,之后多重因(yin)素(su)共(gong)振有(you)望再次推(tui)動板塊(kuai)(kuai)向上,繼續(xu)看(kan)好行(xing)業(ye)相關機會。
5G商用進程加速
近期,受外部因素(su)影(ying)響,通(tong)信(xin)行(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)板塊持續震蕩,近二十(shi)個(ge)交(jiao)易日(ri)以(yi)來(lai),申萬(wan)通(tong)信(xin)行(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)指(zhi)數累計上(shang)(shang)漲1.73%,表現強于大(da)盤。上(shang)(shang)周,通(tong)信(xin)行(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)活躍度已有所(suo)上(shang)(shang)升,申萬(wan)通(tong)信(xin)行(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)指(zhi)數上(shang)(shang)漲2.59%,為連續5周收陰后,首度周線(xian)收陽。昨日(ri)為本(ben)周第一個(ge)交(jiao)易日(ri),通(tong)信(xin)行(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)板塊在消息面(mian)的(de)影(ying)響下再度活躍,上(shang)(shang)漲1.47%。
業內人士(shi)指出(chu),近期行(xing)業受多重外部因素困(kun)擾,但運營(ying)商(shang)資(zi)本開(kai)始(shi)企穩(wen)進入(ru)向上周期。數(shu)據顯示,2019年(nian)(nian)中(zhong)國移(yi)動的資(zi)本開(kai)支約(yue)為1669億(yi)元(yuan)(yuan),中(zhong)國電(dian)信的資(zi)本開(kai)支為780億(yi)元(yuan)(yuan),中(zhong)國聯通的資(zi)本開(kai)支為580億(yi)元(yuan)(yuan),三家今年(nian)(nian)的資(zi)本開(kai)支總額將(jiang)超過3000億(yi)元(yuan)(yuan),下半(ban)年(nian)(nian)電(dian)信行(xing)業業績可能出(chu)現大幅增長。
同時,近日工信部(bu)表(biao)示(shi)目(mu)前5G系統(tong)、芯片、終端(duan)等產業鏈主要環節已基本達到(dao)商用(yong)水平,具(ju)備了商用(yong)部(bu)署條件(jian)。6月3日,據新華社報(bao)道(dao),工信部(bu)表(biao)示(shi),近期將(jiang)發放5G商用(yong)牌(pai)照,我國將(jiang)正式進(jin)入5G商用(yong)元年。
西南證券表示,從情緒(xu)、投資、政(zheng)策、產(chan)業(ye)等多方(fang)面條(tiao)件來看,通(tong)信(xin)板(ban)塊有望重復2018年走勢,繼續看好通(tong)信(xin)板(ban)塊機會(hui)。
中(zhong)信建投證券表示,隨著市場對外部因素悲(bei)觀(guan)預期(qi)的逐步消化,短期(qi)可(ke)(ke)能進入震蕩,但中(zhong)國(guo)的5G進展今年預計不(bu)會(hui)(hui)受到實質影響,相(xiang)反可(ke)(ke)能進一步提速(su)。依然(ran)建議重視5G的投資(zi)機(ji)會(hui)(hui),尤其是(shi)中(zhong)國(guo)運營商作為國(guo)有企業,有逆周期(qi)調節、加大投資(zi)助(zhu)力經濟發展的使命。
行業向好邏輯不變
從行業(ye)表現來看(kan),近期通(tong)信行業(ye)板(ban)塊多次活(huo)躍(yue),5月27日申(shen)萬通(tong)信行業(ye)指(zhi)數(shu)上(shang)漲(zhang)3.55%,昨日申(shen)萬通(tong)信行業(ye)指(zhi)數(shu)上(shang)漲(zhang)1.47%,漲(zhang)幅位(wei)居行業(ye)首位(wei)。
對于(yu)通信(xin)行業板塊的投資,萬聯證券表示,由于(yu)中(zhong)國(guo)在全(quan)球5G部署競賽中(zhong)處于(yu)領先地(di)位,且自(zi)主話語權(quan)不斷加(jia)強(qiang),在板塊成(cheng)分公司業績(ji)轉(zhuan)好的驅動下,預計板塊中(zhong)長(chang)期向好邏輯不變(bian)。
銀河證券表示,通信業是我國現階段最具成(cheng)長性(xing)(xing)的關鍵基礎產業,對經濟轉型(xing)升級具有重(zhong)要支撐(cheng)作用,其重(zhong)要性(xing)(xing)和景(jing)氣度必將(jiang)達到空(kong)前高(gao)度。2019年將(jiang)成(cheng)為我國5G商用元年,5G建設(she)初期主設(she)備商受益確定(ding)性(xing)(xing)強。此外,光(guang)纖光(guang)纜和基站需求有望(wang)隨5G建網周期的開(kai)啟而回升。
愛建(jian)證券(quan)表示,目前5G投資方向主體仍然是(shi)國(guo)產替(ti)代,自主可控(kong)為(wei)主,承載(zai)網(wang)將(jiang)是(shi)5G建(jian)設來臨前先行受益的領域(yu)。擁(yong)有自主知識產權的5G光模塊、光芯片、設備廠(chang)商將(jiang)在(zai)未(wei)來建(jian)設中受益。
天風證券(quan)表示,中國5G網絡建設目前仍按照既定計劃前行,2019年(nian)運(yun)營商5G投資啟動,整體資本(ben)開支(zhi)計劃觸底回升(sheng),產業鏈有望迎來(lai)景氣向上周(zhou)期(qi)。結合近期(qi)外部因素的(de)演變(bian),仍舊維(wei)持板塊(kuai)震(zhen)蕩向上的(de)判斷(duan)。
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