國家統計局7月(yue)(yue)10日發布了2019年6月(yue)(yue)份全國CPI(居民消費價格指數(shu))數(shu)據,當月(yue)(yue)CPI同比(bi)上(shang)漲(zhang)2.7%。由于具備抗通脹屬性(xing),加之A股市場波(bo)動(dong)性(xing)加大,近期資金避險(xian)偏好上(shang)升,食(shi)品飲料板(ban)塊已成(cheng)為“避風港”。
10日,食品飲(yin)料(liao)(申(shen)萬)指(zhi)數上漲(zhang)0.17%,龍(long)大肉食、今世(shi)緣、惠(hui)發股份領漲(zhang)。6月(yue)10日以來,該指(zhi)數已上漲(zhang)14.72%。
消費具備提升空間
海通(tong)證券分析師姜超認(ren)為,長(chang)期來(lai)看我國消(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)費(fei)具(ju)備廣闊的提(ti)升空間。首先是(shi)(shi)減(jian)稅效果(guo)顯現,年內消(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)費(fei)回升。減(jian)稅政(zheng)策是(shi)(shi)今年最大(da)(da)的亮點(dian),而(er)其(qi)將有力(li)(li)地促進(jin)消(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)費(fei)回升。受益于減(jian)稅以及CPI和PPI之間“剪刀差(cha)”的因(yin)素(su),利(li)潤分配的格局(ju)將從中上(shang)游(you)向下(xia)游(you)轉移(yi),下(xia)游(you)消(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)費(fei)類企(qi)業(ye)盈利(li)狀(zhuang)況也會(hui)更好。其(qi)次是(shi)(shi)信貸助力(li)(li)發展,長(chang)期前景廣闊。目前我國消(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)費(fei)規模相(xiang)對于經(jing)濟(ji)體量依(yi)然偏低,而(er)隨著移(yi)動互聯網的普及,消(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)費(fei)信貸的可得性(xing)和便利(li)性(xing)大(da)(da)幅(fu)上(shang)升,長(chang)期來(lai)看消(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)費(fei)具(ju)備廣闊的提(ti)升空間。
最新數(shu)據顯示,受“618”大促影響,2019年6月食品(pin)飲(yin)料(liao)淘系平臺線(xian)上(shang)(shang)銷(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)售(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)額環(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)增長(chang)10.26%、同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)增長(chang)8.01%至(zhi)274.86億元(yuan)。總體來(lai)看,食品(pin)飲(yin)料(liao)銷(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)售(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)呈(cheng)“量(liang)(liang)跌價(jia)升(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)”態勢(shi),銷(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)售(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)均(jun)價(jia)大幅提(ti)(ti)升(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)拉(la)動了(le)銷(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)售(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)額增長(chang)。6月銷(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)量(liang)(liang)同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)下降12.36%;銷(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)售(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)均(jun)價(jia)環(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)上(shang)(shang)升(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)7.46%,同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)上(shang)(shang)升(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)23.25%至(zhi)27.16元(yuan)/件(jian)(jian)。值(zhi)得一提(ti)(ti)的是,6月白酒淘系平臺線(xian)上(shang)(shang)銷(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)售(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)表現(xian)亮眼,銷(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)售(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)均(jun)價(jia)、銷(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)售(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)量(liang)(liang)的同(tong)(tong)(tong)時提(ti)(ti)升(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)帶動總銷(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)售(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)額提(ti)(ti)升(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)。6月白酒銷(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)售(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)額同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)增64.9%,環(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)增113.9%至(zhi)4.38億元(yuan);銷(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)售(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)均(jun)價(jia)提(ti)(ti)升(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)至(zhi)247.3元(yuan)/件(jian)(jian),同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)增17.2%,環(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)增52.3%;銷(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)售(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)量(liang)(liang)為(wei)177.2萬件(jian)(jian),同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)增40.7%,環(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)增40.5%。另外,休閑食品(pin)也是量(liang)(liang)價(jia)齊升(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)共(gong)同(tong)(tong)(tong)拉(la)動6月銷(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)售(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)額提(ti)(ti)升(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng),6月零食/堅果/特(te)產(chan)銷(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)量(liang)(liang)環(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)上(shang)(shang)升(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)6.9%至(zhi)1.74億件(jian)(jian);銷(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)售(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)均(jun)價(jia)達到26.4元(yuan)/件(jian)(jian),環(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)增長(chang)1.7%;在量(liang)(liang)價(jia)的共(gong)同(tong)(tong)(tong)拉(la)動下,銷(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)售(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)額升(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)至(zhi)45.94億元(yuan),環(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)提(ti)(ti)升(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)8.6%。
進入7月,A股企(qi)業將發(fa)布中(zhong)報業績預(yu)告(gao),食(shi)品飲(yin)料板塊穩健(jian)的基本(ben)面將充(chong)分(fen)彰(zhang)顯優勢。對(dui)此(ci)中(zhong)信證券首(shou)席食(shi)品飲(yin)料分(fen)析(xi)師薛緣預(yu)測,白酒企(qi)業維持穩健(jian)增長(chang),高端龍頭(tou)趨勢最強、確定性高;大眾品細分(fen)行業表現各(ge)異(yi),龍頭(tou)均體現出(chu)更為穩健(jian)的發(fa)展趨勢。
板塊估值有所回升
Wind數據顯示,食品飲料(liao)(申萬(wan))指(zhi)數成分股(gu)中(zhong),最(zui)近5個交(jiao)易(yi)日主力(li)資金流入最(zui)多的5只個股(gu)為:酒鬼酒、龍(long)大肉(rou)食、今世緣(yuan)、口子窖、中(zhong)炬高新(xin),主力(li)凈(jing)流入額分別(bie)達到1.5億(yi)元、1.4億(yi)元、1.1億(yi)元、0.63億(yi)元、0.15億(yi)元。
據財富(fu)證券統計,目前食品飲料板(ban)塊PE為32倍,較前期有所上升,為全部A股(gu)的2.16倍。歷(li)史平(ping)均的食品飲料板(ban)塊PE為28倍,相對全部A股(gu)的估值溢價(jia)為72%。
中(zhong)(zhong)金公司發布(bu)的研(yan)究(jiu)報(bao)告強調,在當前(qian)(qian)時點,食品(pin)(pin)(pin)(pin)飲料(liao)板(ban)塊(kuai)中(zhong)(zhong)的部分龍頭估(gu)值(zhi)已經位(wei)(wei)于歷史高位(wei)(wei),建(jian)議謹慎對待前(qian)(qian)期漲(zhang)幅過(guo)大或估(gu)值(zhi)顯(xian)著偏(pian)高個股(gu)(gu)。預(yu)計減稅降費等因(yin)素將(jiang)進(jin)一步(bu)驅(qu)動食品(pin)(pin)(pin)(pin)飲料(liao)板(ban)塊(kuai)中(zhong)(zhong)部分企業收入與盈利的改(gai)善,建(jian)議“自下而上(shang)”優選利潤(run)有(you)望(wang)超預(yu)期或業績(ji)有(you)望(wang)逐季加速(su)增(zeng)長的個股(gu)(gu)。對于非酒類食品(pin)(pin)(pin)(pin)飲料(liao)品(pin)(pin)(pin)(pin)種,中(zhong)(zhong)金公司的戰略組合推薦(jian)包括:伊利股(gu)(gu)份、涪陵榨菜、絕味食品(pin)(pin)(pin)(pin);戰術組合推薦(jian)包括安琪酵母、湯臣倍健、洽洽食品(pin)(pin)(pin)(pin)。
對(dui)(dui)于(yu)(yu)食品(pin)飲料(liao)(liao)能否(fou)持續享有估(gu)值(zhi)溢價,華泰證(zheng)券研究報(bao)告認為,今年3月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)PMI出現單月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)反(fan)彈,但4至6月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)PMI再度回落,同(tong)時CPI微幅(fu)上(shang)行引發市場對(dui)(dui)滯脹的(de)(de)擔憂,4月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)至6月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)上(shang)證(zheng)綜指震蕩(dang)下(xia)行,而食品(pin)飲料(liao)(liao)板(ban)塊相對(dui)(dui)上(shang)證(zheng)綜指估(gu)值(zhi)持續上(shang)升(sheng)。與歷史上(shang)逆(ni)勢提(ti)(ti)升(sheng)估(gu)值(zhi)時期對(dui)(dui)比來看,機構投資者對(dui)(dui)于(yu)(yu)食品(pin)飲料(liao)(liao)板(ban)塊在(zai)2019年第一(yi)季(ji)(ji)度倉(cang)位處(chu)在(zai)高位,而板(ban)塊7月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)的(de)(de)估(gu)值(zhi)水平處(chu)在(zai)高位,當前高估(gu)值(zhi)需待持續的(de)(de)高盈利增速(su)消(xiao)化;食品(pin)飲料(liao)(liao)凈(jing)利增速(su)則處(chu)在(zai)低位,2019年第二、三季(ji)(ji)度的(de)(de)盈利增速(su)能否(fou)持續超預期,將決定(ding)食品(pin)飲料(liao)(liao)板(ban)塊估(gu)值(zhi)提(ti)(ti)升(sheng)的(de)(de)持續性。
中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)證(zheng)網(wang)(wang)(wang)聲(sheng)明(ming)(ming):凡(fan)本(ben)(ben)網(wang)(wang)(wang)注明(ming)(ming)“來源:中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)證(zheng)券(quan)(quan)報(bao)·中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)證(zheng)網(wang)(wang)(wang)”的所有作(zuo)品(pin)(pin),版權均屬于(yu)(yu)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)證(zheng)券(quan)(quan)報(bao)、中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)證(zheng)網(wang)(wang)(wang)。中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)證(zheng)券(quan)(quan)報(bao)·中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)證(zheng)網(wang)(wang)(wang)與(yu)作(zuo)品(pin)(pin)作(zuo)者聯合聲(sheng)明(ming)(ming),任何組織未經中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)證(zheng)券(quan)(quan)報(bao)、中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)證(zheng)網(wang)(wang)(wang)以及作(zuo)者書面(mian)授權不得(de)轉(zhuan)載、摘編或利用其(qi)(qi)它方式使用上述作(zuo)品(pin)(pin)。凡(fan)本(ben)(ben)網(wang)(wang)(wang)注明(ming)(ming)來源非中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)證(zheng)券(quan)(quan)報(bao)·中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)證(zheng)網(wang)(wang)(wang)的作(zuo)品(pin)(pin),均轉(zhuan)載自其(qi)(qi)它媒(mei)體,轉(zhuan)載目(mu)的在于(yu)(yu)更好服(fu)務讀者、傳遞信息之(zhi)需,并不代(dai)表本(ben)(ben)網(wang)(wang)(wang)贊同其(qi)(qi)觀點,本(ben)(ben)網(wang)(wang)(wang)亦不對(dui)其(qi)(qi)真實性負責,持異議者應與(yu)原(yuan)出處單位主(zhu)張(zhang)權利。
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