研究報告(gao)內容摘要：

　　投資要點

　　上(shang)周(zhou)機械(xie)設(she)(she)備(bei)（申萬）行(xing)(xing)業(ye)上(shang)漲1.52%，漲幅在28個(ge)申萬一(yi)級行(xing)(xing)業(ye)中(zhong)(zhong)位(wei)居第20，其(qi)中(zhong)(zhong)其(qi)它(ta)專用機械(xie)（+4.02%）、冶金礦(kuang)采化工設(she)(she)備(bei)（+3.04%）、其(qi)它(ta)通用機械(xie)（+2.69%）、農用機械(xie)（+2.23%）和樓宇(yu)設(she)(she)備(bei)（+1.57%）位(wei)居子行(xing)(xing)業(ye)漲幅前5。機械(xie)設(she)(she)備(bei)（申萬）行(xing)(xing)業(ye)PE估(gu)值28.64倍，處(chu)于2016年初至今行(xing)(xing)業(ye)PE估(gu)值33.48%分位(wei)水平。

　　重(zhong)(zhong)點(dian)(dian)關注基建(jian)(jian)產(chan)業(ye)(ye)鏈(lian)，持續(xu)(xu)超配工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)機(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)械，同時建(jian)(jian)議超配塔(ta)機(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)租(zu)賃龍(long)(long)頭(tou)建(jian)(jian)設機(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)械。工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)機(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)械繼(ji)續(xu)(xu)保(bao)(bao)(bao)持高(gao)景氣(qi)度，下(xia)(xia)游需求仍然旺(wang)盛(sheng)，根(gen)據(ju)我們草根(gen)調研，從下(xia)(xia)游開工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)情(qing)況及(ji)核心(xin)配套企業(ye)(ye)排產(chan)情(qing)況看，6月份挖(wa)機(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)銷量有望繼(ji)續(xu)(xu)保(bao)(bao)(bao)持同比高(gao)速(su)增(zeng)長。隨(sui)著各地(di)房建(jian)(jian)項(xiang)目(mu)啟動(dong)，塔(ta)機(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)租(zu)賃需求持續(xu)(xu)回升(sheng)，本(ben)周龐(pang)源(yuan)(yuan)租(zu)賃價格指(zhi)數維持在(zai)1300點(dian)(dian)左右，新簽單(dan)體量1.79億元，5月龐(pang)源(yuan)(yuan)租(zu)賃塔(ta)吊噸米利(li)用率為71.7%，環比提升(sheng)2.1個百分點(dian)(dian)。本(ben)周龐(pang)源(yuan)(yuan)指(zhi)數繼(ji)續(xu)(xu)保(bao)(bao)(bao)持。我們建(jian)(jian)議繼(ji)續(xu)(xu)配置工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)機(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)械板塊，重(zhong)(zhong)點(dian)(dian)推(tui)薦塔(ta)機(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)租(zu)賃龍(long)(long)頭(tou)建(jian)(jian)設機(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)械、工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)機(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)械核心(xin)配套企業(ye)(ye)恒立液(ye)壓(ya)，推(tui)薦三一重(zhong)(zhong)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)、中聯(lian)重(zhong)(zhong)科、艾迪精密及(ji)高(gao)空作業(ye)(ye)平(ping)臺龍(long)(long)頭(tou)浙江鼎力。2020年軌(gui)交(jiao)(jiao)投(tou)資回升(sheng)、軌(gui)交(jiao)(jiao)基礎設施建(jian)(jian)設加(jia)快(kuai)、軌(gui)交(jiao)(jiao)項(xiang)目(mu)相繼(ji)開工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)，軌(gui)交(jiao)(jiao)產(chan)業(ye)(ye)鏈(lian)上(shang)市公司訂單(dan)和業(ye)(ye)績增(zeng)長確定(ding)性強(qiang)，重(zhong)(zhong)點(dian)(dian)推(tui)薦交(jiao)(jiao)控科技、中鐵工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)業(ye)(ye)。

　　繼(ji)續(xu)(xu)看(kan)好(hao)新(xin)興產(chan)(chan)業的投(tou)資機會，重(zhong)(zhong)點(dian)(dian)推薦(jian)半導(dao)(dao)體(ti)(ti)設備(bei)(bei)(bei)、鋰電設備(bei)(bei)(bei)、光伏(fu)設備(bei)(bei)(bei)等(deng)(deng)(deng)。中芯國(guo)際自提(ti)交(jiao)(jiao)科創板(ban)上(shang)市申請(qing)到成功過會僅(jin)耗時19天(tian)，成功于6月19日經(jing)上(shang)交(jiao)(jiao)所(suo)審核通(tong)過，在全球半導(dao)(dao)體(ti)(ti)投(tou)資預期(qi)升(sheng)溫、國(guo)產(chan)(chan)化需求(qiu)迫切的背(bei)景下(xia)，設備(bei)(bei)(bei)廠商發展空間巨(ju)大(da)、政策扶持前景仍然繼(ji)續(xu)(xu)值得期(qi)待。我(wo)們(men)看(kan)好(hao)投(tou)資擴產(chan)(chan)周期(qi)內半導(dao)(dao)體(ti)(ti)設備(bei)(bei)(bei)國(guo)產(chan)(chan)化機遇，重(zhong)(zhong)點(dian)(dian)推薦(jian)北方(fang)華(hua)創，建議關(guan)注(zhu)華(hua)峰測(ce)控、中微公司等(deng)(deng)(deng)；新(xin)能源汽(qi)車5月產(chan)(chan)銷(xiao)量(liang)下(xia)降，但我(wo)們(men)認為(wei)并未改變(bian)長期(qi)需求(qiu)趨(qu)勢(shi)，我(wo)們(men)判斷未來三年為(wei)鋰電企(qi)業產(chan)(chan)能擴張(zhang)的黃(huang)金期(qi)，設備(bei)(bei)(bei)需求(qiu)拐點(dian)(dian)已現端倪，重(zhong)(zhong)點(dian)(dian)推薦(jian)鋰電設備(bei)(bei)(bei)龍頭(tou)先導(dao)(dao)智能等(deng)(deng)(deng)；光伏(fu)設備(bei)(bei)(bei)方(fang)向(xiang)重(zhong)(zhong)點(dian)(dian)看(kan)好(hao)邁(mai)為(wei)股份(fen)、捷佳偉創。第三方(fang)檢(jian)測(ce)服務(wu)持續(xu)(xu)推薦(jian)龍頭(tou)企(qi)業華(hua)測(ce)檢(jian)測(ce)，通(tong)用(yong)機器人(ren)重(zhong)(zhong)點(dian)(dian)推薦(jian)埃斯(si)(si)頓(dun)，建議關(guan)注(zhu)拓斯(si)(si)達等(deng)(deng)(deng)。激光器價(jia)格競(jing)爭(zheng)有望趨(qu)緩，國(guo)產(chan)(chan)龍頭(tou)企(qi)業市占率顯(xian)著(zhu)提(ti)升(sheng)，重(zhong)(zhong)點(dian)(dian)推薦(jian)銳科激光等(deng)(deng)(deng)。

　　本(ben)周國(guo)際油價保持穩定，國(guo)內重(zhong)視能(neng)源(yuan)安全(quan)、加大油氣資本(ben)開支的(de)邏(luo)輯(ji)并(bing)未改變。杰瑞股份在手訂單豐(feng)厚，全(quan)年業(ye)績(ji)高增長確(que)定性強，繼續(xu)重(zhong)點推(tui)薦。

　　風險(xian)(xian)提示：宏觀經濟波(bo)動(dong)風險(xian)(xian)，政(zheng)策變動(dong)風險(xian)(xian)，下游(you)采購(gou)不及(ji)預(yu)期，油價大幅(fu)波(bo)動(dong)，行業(ye)競爭(zheng)加劇，國(guo)產化進度不及(ji)預(yu)期。