瑞銀財富管理亞太區投資(zi)(zi)總監(jian)及(ji)首席中國(guo)經(jing)濟學家胡一帆(fan)17日在(zai)京接受(shou)媒體(ti)采訪時表(biao)示,相較于2018年,2019年,全(quan)球(qiu)(qiu)經(jing)濟和市(shi)場的挑戰并不(bu)少,總體(ti)看全(quan)球(qiu)(qiu)面(mian)臨(lin)三個(ge)巨大的轉(zhuan)折(zhe)點,第一個(ge)是(shi)(shi)全(quan)球(qiu)(qiu)經(jing)濟增速開始(shi)放緩,第二個(ge)是(shi)(shi)全(quan)球(qiu)(qiu)央行(xing)資(zi)(zi)產負債表(biao)總量縮減,第三個(ge)是(shi)(shi)全(quan)球(qiu)(qiu)企業(ye)盈利增長放緩。在(zai)此(ci)背景(jing)下,選擇投資(zi)(zi)領(ling)域變(bian)得非(fei)常重(zhong)要,不(bu)少投資(zi)(zi)者(zhe)都認(ren)為新(xin)興市(shi)場的“價值(zhi)洼地”屬性開始(shi)凸顯。
全球市場面臨三大挑戰
胡一(yi)帆指出,今(jin)年全球市場面臨(lin)三個轉折點。
她指出,第一個轉(zhuan)折點是全球增(zeng)速(su)(su)開始放(fang)緩。預(yu)計今年(nian)全球經(jing)濟增(zeng)速(su)(su)會從(cong)去(qu)(qu)年(nian)的(de)3.8%小幅下(xia)降至(zhi)(zhi)3.7%,并且今后都將維持(chi)下(xia)行(xing)趨勢。預(yu)測今年(nian)美國經(jing)濟增(zeng)速(su)(su)會從(cong)去(qu)(qu)年(nian)的(de)2.9%降至(zhi)(zhi)2.6%,明年(nian)會繼(ji)續下(xia)行(xing)至(zhi)(zhi)2%。歐洲經(jing)濟也前景不佳(jia)。
第(di)二個轉折點是(shi)(shi)全(quan)(quan)(quan)球(qiu)(qiu)央(yang)行(xing)(xing)(xing)資(zi)產(chan)負債(zhai)表總量縮減(jian)(jian),簡而言之(zhi)就是(shi)(shi)全(quan)(quan)(quan)球(qiu)(qiu)流動(dong)(dong)性(xing)(xing)(xing)減(jian)(jian)少。實(shi)際流動(dong)(dong)性(xing)(xing)(xing)的(de)(de)(de)減(jian)(jian)少在(zai)2018年第(di)四季度(du)已經有所顯現,在(zai)2008年金融危機之(zhi)后,全(quan)(quan)(quan)球(qiu)(qiu)央(yang)行(xing)(xing)(xing)都是(shi)(shi)資(zi)產(chan)的(de)(de)(de)凈購買者,但(dan)現在(zai)全(quan)(quan)(quan)球(qiu)(qiu)央(yang)行(xing)(xing)(xing)變成資(zi)產(chan)的(de)(de)(de)凈提供者,開始賣(mai)資(zi)產(chan)。賣(mai)資(zi)產(chan)流動(dong)(dong)性(xing)(xing)(xing)就開始減(jian)(jian)少。從(cong)今(jin)年開始,全(quan)(quan)(quan)球(qiu)(qiu)將(jiang)迎(ying)來絕對(dui)流動(dong)(dong)性(xing)(xing)(xing)的(de)(de)(de)減(jian)(jian)少,這對(dui)市場(chang)(chang)將(jiang)產(chan)生(sheng)巨大的(de)(de)(de)影響。流動(dong)(dong)性(xing)(xing)(xing)多的(de)(de)(de)時候,隨(sui)意的(de)(de)(de)投(tou)(tou)資(zi)都可能(neng)取(qu)(qu)得收(shou)益(yi),但(dan)流動(dong)(dong)性(xing)(xing)(xing)減(jian)(jian)少之(zhi)后投(tou)(tou)資(zi)就更有挑戰性(xing)(xing)(xing)。此(ci)外,今(jin)年多數(shu)央(yang)行(xing)(xing)(xing)將(jiang)采取(qu)(qu)加息(xi)(xi)的(de)(de)(de)政策(ce)。今(jin)年美國(guo)預(yu)計(ji)將(jiang)加息(xi)(xi)兩次,每次加息(xi)(xi)25個基點。歐(ou)洲央(yang)行(xing)(xing)(xing)到年底可能(neng)也(ye)會開始加息(xi)(xi)。日本央(yang)行(xing)(xing)(xing)也(ye)會調高10年期債(zhai)券(quan)的(de)(de)(de)目標利率(lv),因為其(qi)通脹在(zai)上(shang)(shang)升。隨(sui)著利息(xi)(xi)上(shang)(shang)升,市場(chang)(chang)對(dui)于全(quan)(quan)(quan)球(qiu)(qiu)債(zhai)務問(wen)題的(de)(de)(de)擔(dan)憂會重新(xin)浮現,特(te)別(bie)是(shi)(shi)意大利的(de)(de)(de)預(yu)算法案,還有其(qi)他國(guo)家,包括(kuo)美國(guo)雙(shuang)赤字,導(dao)致(zhi)投(tou)(tou)資(zi)者又(you)開始產(chan)生(sheng)新(xin)的(de)(de)(de)擔(dan)憂。
第(di)三個轉折點是(shi)全(quan)球(qiu)企業盈(ying)利(li)增(zeng)長放緩(huan)。去年(nian)(nian)全(quan)球(qiu)企業盈(ying)利(li)增(zeng)長數據(ju)非常強勁,達到(dao)15%,但今年(nian)(nian)可能會(hui)驟(zou)降到(dao)5%。美國(guo)去年(nian)(nian)企業盈(ying)利(li)增(zeng)速(su)達到(dao)21%,創(chuang)下8年(nian)(nian)新高,最主要受(shou)益于一(yi)次性減(jian)稅政策。在去年(nian)(nian)高基數的基礎上,加之(zhi)今年(nian)(nian)稅收利(li)好已經(jing)兌現,今年(nian)(nian)預計會(hui)驟(zou)降到(dao)4%,這會(hui)對全(quan)球(qiu)股市產(chan)生巨大影響。
新興市場或成“價值洼地”
胡(hu)一帆表(biao)示,在各種不確定(ding)性因素影響下(xia),新興市場或成為“價值洼地”。
她指出,今年(nian)市(shi)場(chang)對(dui)(dui)于(yu)資(zi)產泡沫(mo)的(de)擔憂開(kai)始浮現,在(zai)此狀態下,投資(zi)變的(de)比(bi)較有挑戰(zhan)。瑞銀(yin)在(zai)去年(nian)年(nian)底對(dui)(dui)于(yu)全球投資(zi)者進行了(le)一(yi)項(xiang)調研,調研顯(xian)(xian)示,對(dui)(dui)于(yu)2019年(nian)美(mei)國(guo)(guo)股市(shi),個人(ren)投資(zi)者比(bi)較樂觀,27%認(ren)(ren)為能跑(pao)贏全球,39%覺(jue)得表現不會(hui)太差,三分之二(er)的(de)個人(ren)投資(zi)者還(huan)是會(hui)投資(zi)美(mei)國(guo)(guo)股市(shi)。但機構(gou)投資(zi)者已經(jing)有50%的(de)比(bi)例認(ren)(ren)為美(mei)國(guo)(guo)的(de)股市(shi)今年(nian)表現將弱于(yu)全球。這種分化值(zhi)得關(guan)注,機構(gou)投資(zi)者確實認(ren)(ren)為一(yi)些風險因素比(bi)較明(ming)顯(xian)(xian),這會(hui)牽動全球經(jing)濟和金融結構(gou)性發展。
她指出,2019年(nian)(nian)最(zui)(zui)佳投資(zi)機(ji)會在哪里(li),是(shi)(shi)各界(jie)比(bi)(bi)較關注的。個(ge)人投資(zi)者比(bi)(bi)較散(san)亂,也看不(bu)(bu)出最(zui)(zui)青睞何地(di)。但(dan)機(ji)構(gou)投資(zi)者非(fei)常集中(zhong)地(di)強力(li)看好(hao)新(xin)(xin)興(xing)(xing)市(shi)(shi)(shi)場,這是(shi)(shi)一個(ge)明顯的信號。2018年(nian)(nian)新(xin)(xin)興(xing)(xing)市(shi)(shi)(shi)場表(biao)現并不(bu)(bu)好(hao),尤(you)其(qi)是(shi)(shi)在美(mei)國加息,資(zi)金開始減少之后,去年(nian)(nian)夏天新(xin)(xin)興(xing)(xing)市(shi)(shi)(shi)場差點發生股市(shi)(shi)(shi)和債市(shi)(shi)(shi)的全(quan)面(mian)危機(ji)。企穩之后,全(quan)球投資(zi)者還是(shi)(shi)不(bu)(bu)敢投新(xin)(xin)興(xing)(xing)市(shi)(shi)(shi)場,因為(wei)其(qi)波動性(xing)確實(shi)比(bi)(bi)較大(da)(da)。但(dan)從今年(nian)(nian)的角(jiao)度來看,機(ji)構(gou)投資(zi)者覺得(de)新(xin)(xin)興(xing)(xing)市(shi)(shi)(shi)場的“價值洼地(di)”開始顯現,新(xin)(xin)興(xing)(xing)市(shi)(shi)(shi)場當中(zhong)中(zhong)國是(shi)(shi)最(zui)(zui)大(da)(da)的市(shi)(shi)(shi)場。今年(nian)(nian)機(ji)構(gou)投資(zi)者非(fei)常看好(hao)新(xin)(xin)興(xing)(xing)市(shi)(shi)(shi)場,由于新(xin)(xin)興(xing)(xing)市(shi)(shi)(shi)場波動比(bi)(bi)較大(da)(da),所以機(ji)構(gou)投資(zi)者在投資(zi)的時(shi)候除了(le)關注股票之外,也會對債券和大(da)(da)宗商品感興(xing)(xing)趣。
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Copyright 2001-2018 China Securities Journal. All Rights Reserved