作者易綱 中國人民銀行黨委副書記副行長(chang)
《中國金(jin)融》2018年(nian)第(di)3期
對2017年貨幣政策工作的回顧
回顧2017年(nian)的(de)(de)經(jing)(jing)濟金(jin)融(rong)運行(xing)(xing),積極(ji)有(you)(you)利(li)的(de)(de)變(bian)化增(zeng)多(duo),同時也有(you)(you)一(yi)些風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)隱患暴(bao)露。從(cong)外(wai)部(bu)環(huan)境(jing)看,全球(qiu)經(jing)(jing)濟繼續呈現(xian)復蘇態(tai)勢(shi),總體好(hao)于預(yu)期(qi),主要發達經(jing)(jing)濟體貨幣(bi)政策(ce)趨向(xiang)正常(chang)化,美聯儲年(nian)內三次加(jia)息并推出縮表計劃,地(di)緣政治風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)頻(pin)發并對(dui)國際金(jin)融(rong)市場形(xing)成一(yi)定沖(chong)擊,國際經(jing)(jing)貿(mao)環(huan)境(jing)和(he)跨境(jing)資本流(liu)動性(xing)形(xing)勢(shi)變(bian)化較(jiao)大。從(cong)國內經(jing)(jing)濟金(jin)融(rong)形(xing)勢(shi)看,經(jing)(jing)濟穩(wen)中(zhong)向(xiang)好(hao),結(jie)構持(chi)續改善,總供(gong)求更加(jia)平(ping)衡,制(zhi)造業(ye)(ye)產能出清、行(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)集中(zhong)度提升以及(ji)企業(ye)(ye)利(li)潤改善較(jiao)為明顯(xian),但經(jing)(jing)濟運行(xing)(xing)中(zhong)仍然(ran)存在較(jiao)為突出的(de)(de)結(jie)構性(xing)矛盾(dun),財(cai)政金(jin)融(rong)領(ling)域的(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)有(you)(you)所(suo)暴(bao)露。面對(dui)復雜多(duo)變(bian)的(de)(de)內外(wai)部(bu)環(huan)境(jing),在黨中(zhong)央、國務院的(de)(de)正確領(ling)導(dao)下,人民銀行(xing)(xing)牢牢把握我國社會主要矛盾(dun)和(he)經(jing)(jing)濟發展階段(duan)的(de)(de)變(bian)化,堅(jian)定不移貫徹新發展理(li)念(nian),堅(jian)持(chi)質量(liang)第一(yi)、效益優先(xian),實施穩(wen)健(jian)中(zhong)性(xing)的(de)(de)貨幣(bi)政策(ce),更好(hao)地(di)平(ping)衡穩(wen)增(zeng)長、調結(jie)構、去杠(gang)桿、抑泡(pao)沫和(he)防風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)之(zhi)間(jian)的(de)(de)關系,為供(gong)給側結(jie)構性(xing)改革和(he)高質量(liang)發展營(ying)造中(zhong)性(xing)適(shi)度的(de)(de)貨幣(bi)金(jin)融(rong)環(huan)境(jing),在促(cu)進杠(gang)桿穩(wen)定的(de)(de)同時,保持(chi)了經(jing)(jing)濟平(ping)穩(wen)較(jiao)快增(zeng)長。
進(jin)(jin)一(yi)步加強流(liu)(liu)動(dong)(dong)(dong)性(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)管理(li),保持流(liu)(liu)動(dong)(dong)(dong)性(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)基(ji)本穩(wen)(wen)定(ding)(ding)(ding)。隨著供給(gei)側結構(gou)性(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)改革、簡政放(fang)權和創新驅動(dong)(dong)(dong)戰略不斷深化(hua)實施,我國經濟運行(xing)的(de)穩(wen)(wen)定(ding)(ding)(ding)性(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)、協(xie)調性(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)進(jin)(jin)一(yi)步增強,質量(liang)效益提(ti)(ti)高,經濟下行(xing)壓力有所減緩,但仍面臨杠桿率相對(dui)較高、部分資(zi)產價格仍處高位等問(wen)題。在(zai)這種(zhong)情(qing)(qing)況下,穩(wen)(wen)健的(de)貨幣政策須更趨向(xiang)中(zhong)(zhong)性(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing),一(yi)方面要(yao)維護銀(yin)行(xing)體系(xi)流(liu)(liu)動(dong)(dong)(dong)性(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)中(zhong)(zhong)性(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)適度,平衡好穩(wen)(wen)增長、調結構(gou)、防(fang)(fang)風險(xian)等多目標之間的(de)關(guan)系(xi);另一(yi)方面也要(yao)密切監測流(liu)(liu)動(dong)(dong)(dong)性(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)變化(hua)情(qing)(qing)況,對(dui)引起流(liu)(liu)動(dong)(dong)(dong)性(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)波動(dong)(dong)(dong)的(de)時(shi)點(dian)性(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)擾動(dong)(dong)(dong)因(yin)素提(ti)(ti)前(qian)分析預(yu)(yu)判,防(fang)(fang)止由于流(liu)(liu)動(dong)(dong)(dong)性(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)短(duan)期(qi)變化(hua)引起市(shi)場(chang)(chang)過度波動(dong)(dong)(dong)。2017年(nian),人(ren)民銀(yin)行(xing)密切關(guan)注流(liu)(liu)動(dong)(dong)(dong)性(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)形勢和市(shi)場(chang)(chang)預(yu)(yu)期(qi)變化(hua),靈活運用(yong)多種(zhong)貨幣政策工具組合,合理(li)安排工具搭配和操作(zuo)(zuo)節(jie)奏,進(jin)(jin)一(yi)步增強流(liu)(liu)動(dong)(dong)(dong)性(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)管理(li)的(de)靈活性(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)和有效性(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)。使用(yong)常備(bei)(bei)借(jie)貸便(bian)利(li)(SLF)、中(zhong)(zhong)期(qi)借(jie)貸便(bian)利(li)(MLF)等工具提(ti)(ti)供不同期(qi)限流(liu)(liu)動(dong)(dong)(dong)性(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)。張(zhang)弛有度開展公開市(shi)場(chang)(chang)操作(zuo)(zuo),熨(yun)平稅期(qi)、政府(fu)債發(fa)行(xing)、現(xian)金(jin)投放(fang)與回籠等因(yin)素對(dui)流(liu)(liu)動(dong)(dong)(dong)性(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)的(de)擾動(dong)(dong)(dong)。啟用(yong)了(le)2個月期(qi)逆(ni)回購操作(zuo)(zuo),并在(zai)關(guan)鍵時(shi)點(dian)提(ti)(ti)前(qian)供應(ying)跨年(nian)資(zi)金(jin),提(ti)(ti)高資(zi)金(jin)面穩(wen)(wen)定(ding)(ding)(ding)性(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)。對(dui)春節(jie)前(qian)因(yin)現(xian)金(jin)大量(liang)投放(fang)而(er)產生的(de)臨時(shi)流(liu)(liu)動(dong)(dong)(dong)性(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)需(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)提(ti)(ti)前(qian)布局,建立臨時(shi)準備(bei)(bei)金(jin)動(dong)(dong)(dong)用(yong)安排(CRA)。全年(nian)貨幣市(shi)場(chang)(chang)走勢總體平穩(wen)(wen),市(shi)場(chang)(chang)預(yu)(yu)期(qi)穩(wen)(wen)定(ding)(ding)(ding),平穩(wen)(wen)渡過季末(mo)等關(guan)鍵時(shi)點(dian),既(ji)保障了(le)合理(li)的(de)流(liu)(liu)動(dong)(dong)(dong)性(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)需(xu)求(qiu)(qiu),同時(shi)也使金(jin)融體系(xi)資(zi)金(jin)空轉(zhuan)和“脫實向(xiang)虛”的(de)勢頭得到明顯遏制(zhi)。
推(tui)(tui)動貨(huo)(huo)(huo)幣(bi)政策(ce)調(diao)(diao)控(kong)(kong)框架轉型(xing)(xing),更加(jia)充(chong)分地發揮(hui)價格杠桿的(de)(de)(de)調(diao)(diao)節和(he)傳導(dao)作用(yong)。以(yi)(yi)(yi)數(shu)量(liang)(liang)型(xing)(xing)為主的(de)(de)(de)貨(huo)(huo)(huo)幣(bi)政策(ce)間(jian)接調(diao)(diao)控(kong)(kong)框架在(zai)(zai)過去一段(duan)時期(qi)發揮(hui)了重要作用(yong),取得(de)了較好的(de)(de)(de)調(diao)(diao)控(kong)(kong)效果。但隨著利(li)(li)(li)(li)率(lv)(lv)市(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)化的(de)(de)(de)推(tui)(tui)進(jin)和(he)金融創新發展(zhan),數(shu)量(liang)(liang)目(mu)標的(de)(de)(de)局限性開始顯現(xian),僅依靠數(shu)量(liang)(liang)型(xing)(xing)調(diao)(diao)控(kong)(kong)已難(nan)以(yi)(yi)(yi)勝任我國貨(huo)(huo)(huo)幣(bi)政策(ce)調(diao)(diao)控(kong)(kong)的(de)(de)(de)需要。近年來,人民銀(yin)行(xing)積極推(tui)(tui)進(jin)利(li)(li)(li)(li)率(lv)(lv)調(diao)(diao)控(kong)(kong)機制(zhi)構(gou)建,推(tui)(tui)動貨(huo)(huo)(huo)幣(bi)政策(ce)調(diao)(diao)控(kong)(kong)框架轉型(xing)(xing),進(jin)一步(bu)完(wan)善(shan)貨(huo)(huo)(huo)幣(bi)政策(ce)調(diao)(diao)控(kong)(kong)和(he)傳導(dao)機制(zhi),探索構(gou)建利(li)(li)(li)(li)率(lv)(lv)走廊,疏通傳導(dao)渠(qu)道,央(yang)行(xing)對市(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)利(li)(li)(li)(li)率(lv)(lv)的(de)(de)(de)調(diao)(diao)控(kong)(kong)和(he)引導(dao)能力逐步(bu)增(zeng)強。在(zai)(zai)調(diao)(diao)控(kong)(kong)中,既注意保持貨(huo)(huo)(huo)幣(bi)市(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)利(li)(li)(li)(li)率(lv)(lv)的(de)(de)(de)相對穩定,穩定和(he)引導(dao)市(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)預期(qi),又(you)注重在(zai)(zai)一定區(qu)間(jian)內保持利(li)(li)(li)(li)率(lv)(lv)彈性,發揮(hui)價格杠桿的(de)(de)(de)調(diao)(diao)節作用(yong),防范過度加(jia)杠桿和(he)累積金融風險。2017年以(yi)(yi)(yi)來,指導(dao)全國銀(yin)行(xing)間(jian)同(tong)業(ye)拆借中心推(tui)(tui)出了銀(yin)銀(yin)間(jian)回購定盤利(li)(li)(li)(li)率(lv)(lv)(FDR,包括隔夜、7天、14天三(san)個期(qi)限)和(he)以(yi)(yi)(yi)7天銀(yin)銀(yin)間(jian)回購定盤利(li)(li)(li)(li)率(lv)(lv)(FDR007)為參考利(li)(li)(li)(li)率(lv)(lv)的(de)(de)(de)利(li)(li)(li)(li)率(lv)(lv)互換(huan)產品(pin),完(wan)善(shan)銀(yin)行(xing)間(jian)市(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)基(ji)準利(li)(li)(li)(li)率(lv)(lv)體系。繼續培育金融市(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)基(ji)準利(li)(li)(li)(li)率(lv)(lv),Shibor發布時間(jian)由(you)上午9∶30調(diao)(diao)整為上午11∶00,使Shibor更好地反映(ying)市(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)利(li)(li)(li)(li)率(lv)(lv)情況,進(jin)一步(bu)增(zeng)強基(ji)準性。
進(jin)一(yi)(yi)步完善宏(hong)觀(guan)(guan)審(shen)(shen)慎(shen)(shen)政(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)策(ce)(ce)框架(jia)(jia),切實防范(fan)(fan)系(xi)統(tong)性(xing)(xing)金(jin)(jin)融(rong)風(feng)險。近年(nian)來,強化宏(hong)觀(guan)(guan)審(shen)(shen)慎(shen)(shen)政(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)策(ce)(ce)已成為(wei)全(quan)球金(jin)(jin)融(rong)改革的(de)核(he)心內(nei)容(rong)之一(yi)(yi),并(bing)不斷取得進(jin)展。總體看,我國宏(hong)觀(guan)(guan)審(shen)(shen)慎(shen)(shen)政(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)策(ce)(ce)的(de)探(tan)索與創新(xin)在國際上走在前列,也為(wei)全(quan)球提(ti)(ti)供(gong)了(le)有價值的(de)經驗。“十二五(wu)”規劃和(he)(he)“十三五(wu)”規劃都對構建逆周期(qi)宏(hong)觀(guan)(guan)審(shen)(shen)慎(shen)(shen)政(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)策(ce)(ce)框架(jia)(jia)提(ti)(ti)出了(le)明確(que)要求(qiu),第(di)(di)(di)五(wu)次全(quan)國金(jin)(jin)融(rong)工作會(hui)議提(ti)(ti)出要強化人(ren)(ren)民(min)銀(yin)行宏(hong)觀(guan)(guan)審(shen)(shen)慎(shen)(shen)管理和(he)(he)系(xi)統(tong)性(xing)(xing)風(feng)險防范(fan)(fan)職責,黨(dang)的(de)十九大作出了(le)健全(quan)貨幣政(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)策(ce)(ce)和(he)(he)宏(hong)觀(guan)(guan)審(shen)(shen)慎(shen)(shen)政(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)策(ce)(ce)雙(shuang)支柱調(diao)(diao)控(kong)框架(jia)(jia)的(de)重要部署(shu)。2017年(nian)以來,人(ren)(ren)民(min)銀(yin)行認真(zhen)貫徹(che)落實黨(dang)中央、國務(wu)院的(de)戰略部署(shu),在完善宏(hong)觀(guan)(guan)審(shen)(shen)慎(shen)(shen)政(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)策(ce)(ce)方面做了(le)大量工作。自2016年(nian)將差別準備(bei)金(jin)(jin)動態調(diao)(diao)整(zheng)機(ji)制“升級”為(wei)宏(hong)觀(guan)(guan)審(shen)(shen)慎(shen)(shen)評估體系(xi)(MPA)后(hou),人(ren)(ren)民(min)銀(yin)行根據宏(hong)觀(guan)(guan)調(diao)(diao)控(kong)需(xu)要和(he)(he)評估情(qing)況不斷對MPA加(jia)以完善。2017年(nian)第(di)(di)(di)一(yi)(yi)季度,將表(biao)外理財(cai)正式納入MPA廣義(yi)信貸指(zhi)標范(fan)(fan)圍。合理設(she)置過渡期(qi),宣布(bu)自2018年(nian)第(di)(di)(di)一(yi)(yi)季度起將同業存單納入MPA的(de)同業負債占比(bi)指(zhi)標。將綠色金(jin)(jin)融(rong)納入MPA信貸政(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)策(ce)(ce)執行情(qing)況考核(he),并(bing)先對24家系(xi)統(tong)重要性(xing)(xing)金(jin)(jin)融(rong)機(ji)構實施。進(jin)一(yi)(yi)步完善全(quan)口(kou)徑跨(kua)境(jing)融(rong)資(zi)(zi)宏(hong)觀(guan)(guan)審(shen)(shen)慎(shen)(shen)政(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)策(ce)(ce),提(ti)(ti)高(gao)跨(kua)境(jing)融(rong)資(zi)(zi)便利性(xing)(xing),防范(fan)(fan)跨(kua)境(jing)資(zi)(zi)金(jin)(jin)流動。
探索發(fa)揮(hui)貨(huo)幣(bi)政(zheng)(zheng)策的(de)(de)結(jie)(jie)構(gou)(gou)調整(zheng)作用,支(zhi)持(chi)(chi)經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)(ji)結(jie)(jie)構(gou)(gou)調整(zheng)和(he)(he)轉型升級。貨(huo)幣(bi)政(zheng)(zheng)策屬總量政(zheng)(zheng)策,但針對部(bu)分領(ling)域(yu)尤其是(shi)在社會(hui)資(zi)本不愿(yuan)參與(yu)的(de)(de)國民經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)(ji)重(zhong)(zhong)點領(ling)域(yu)、薄弱(ruo)環(huan)節和(he)(he)社會(hui)事業等,貨(huo)幣(bi)政(zheng)(zheng)策也可以發(fa)揮(hui)一些(xie)(xie)邊(bian)際上的(de)(de)輔助(zhu)作用。當前(qian)經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)(ji)運行中仍存(cun)在一定(ding)(ding)程度(du)的(de)(de)軟(ruan)約(yue)束問題,部(bu)分經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)(ji)主體對資(zi)金(jin)價(jia)格還不敏(min)感(gan),也需(xu)要運用一定(ding)(ding)的(de)(de)結(jie)(jie)構(gou)(gou)性工具幫助(zhu)疏通政(zheng)(zheng)策傳(chuan)導機制(zhi)。這(zhe)就需(xu)要我們平衡好(hao)結(jie)(jie)構(gou)(gou)性目標(biao)和(he)(he)總量目標(biao)之間的(de)(de)關(guan)系,在保(bao)持(chi)(chi)總量穩定(ding)(ding)的(de)(de)同(tong)時,嘗試通過一些(xie)(xie)結(jie)(jie)構(gou)(gou)性的(de)(de)手段適度(du)進行“精(jing)準滴(di)灌(guan)”。2017年,人民銀行運用信貸(dai)(dai)政(zheng)(zheng)策支(zhi)持(chi)(chi)再貸(dai)(dai)款、再貼現(xian)、抵押補充貸(dai)(dai)款(PSL)等工具引導金(jin)融(rong)機構(gou)(gou)加大對重(zhong)(zhong)點領(ling)域(yu)和(he)(he)薄弱(ruo)環(huan)節的(de)(de)支(zhi)持(chi)(chi)力(li)度(du)。自2018年起,將對普(pu)惠金(jin)融(rong)領(ling)域(yu)貸(dai)(dai)款達到一定(ding)(ding)標(biao)準的(de)(de)金(jin)融(rong)機構(gou)(gou)實(shi)施定(ding)(ding)向降準。完善PSL管理(li),強化激勵(li)約(yue)束機制(zhi),促進降低實(shi)體經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)(ji)融(rong)資(zi)成本。
有(you)序(xu)推(tui)進人(ren)民(min)(min)幣(bi)匯率(lv)形成機(ji)(ji)制(zhi)(zhi)改(gai)革(ge),增(zeng)(zeng)強匯率(lv)彈(dan)(dan)性(xing)(xing),提升(sheng)應對外(wai)部(bu)沖擊的(de)韌性(xing)(xing)。匯率(lv)根本上是由經濟基(ji)本面所決(jue)定的(de),在(zai)供(gong)(gong)給側結(jie)構性(xing)(xing)改(gai)革(ge)、簡政放(fang)權和(he)創新驅動(dong)戰(zhan)略不斷(duan)深化(hua)實(shi)施的(de)推(tui)動(dong)下,我國經濟的(de)總供(gong)(gong)求(qiu)更(geng)加(jia)平衡,經濟運行呈現(xian)(xian)穩(wen)定性(xing)(xing)增(zeng)(zeng)強、質量提高、結(jie)構優化(hua)的(de)態勢。2017年(nian)以來,市(shi)場對各主要(yao)貨(huo)(huo)幣(bi)走勢看法合理(li)分化(hua),預(yu)期趨穩(wen),我國跨境資(zi)本流動(dong)和(he)外(wai)匯供(gong)(gong)求(qiu)更(geng)趨平衡。在(zai)黨中央、國務(wu)院(yuan)領(ling)導(dao)下,人(ren)民(min)(min)銀行繼續穩(wen)妥有(you)序(xu)推(tui)進人(ren)民(min)(min)幣(bi)匯率(lv)市(shi)場化(hua)形成機(ji)(ji)制(zhi)(zhi)改(gai)革(ge),加(jia)大市(shi)場決(jue)定匯率(lv)的(de)力度,增(zeng)(zeng)強人(ren)民(min)(min)幣(bi)匯率(lv)彈(dan)(dan)性(xing)(xing)。指導(dao)外(wai)匯市(shi)場自律機(ji)(ji)制(zhi)(zhi)將籃子(zi)貨(huo)(huo)幣(bi)參考時(shi)段由24小時(shi)調整為(wei)上日(ri)16∶30至當日(ri)7∶30,有(you)助于消除(chu)美元(yuan)日(ri)間變化(hua)在(zai)次(ci)日(ri)中間價中可(ke)能出現(xian)(xian)的(de)重(zhong)復反映(ying)。
總的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)來(lai)看,在(zai)黨中央、國(guo)務院的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)正確領導下(xia)(xia),2017年(nian)(nian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)貨(huo)(huo)幣(bi)政策保持穩(wen)(wen)(wen)(wen)健中性,取得(de)了較(jiao)(jiao)好的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)政策效果,在(zai)金(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)融(rong)(rong)(rong)(rong)(rong)體(ti)(ti)系(xi)穩(wen)(wen)(wen)(wen)步(bu)去杠(gang)桿的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)同(tong)時,有(you)力促進了我(wo)(wo)國(guo)經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)平(ping)穩(wen)(wen)(wen)(wen)健康發(fa)展,穩(wen)(wen)(wen)(wen)定了市(shi)場預(yu)期。銀(yin)行體(ti)(ti)系(xi)流(liu)動性基本穩(wen)(wen)(wen)(wen)定,貨(huo)(huo)幣(bi)信貸平(ping)穩(wen)(wen)(wen)(wen)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang),金(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)融(rong)(rong)(rong)(rong)(rong)對(dui)(dui)實體(ti)(ti)經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)支(zhi)持力度較(jiao)(jiao)為(wei)(wei)穩(wen)(wen)(wen)(wen)固,穩(wen)(wen)(wen)(wen)杠(gang)桿初見成效。2017年(nian)(nian),全年(nian)(nian)人民(min)幣(bi)貸款新增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)13.53萬(wan)(wan)(wan)億(yi)(yi)(yi)元(yuan),同(tong)比(bi)(bi)多增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)8782億(yi)(yi)(yi)元(yuan),12月末余額同(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)為(wei)(wei)12.7%。2017年(nian)(nian),社會融(rong)(rong)(rong)(rong)(rong)資(zi)規模增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)量(liang)為(wei)(wei)19.44萬(wan)(wan)(wan)億(yi)(yi)(yi)元(yuan),同(tong)比(bi)(bi)多增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)1.63萬(wan)(wan)(wan)億(yi)(yi)(yi)元(yuan),12月末存量(liang)同(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)12.0%,符合年(nian)(nian)初預(yu)期水(shui)平(ping)。2017末,M2同(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)8.2%,環(huan)比(bi)(bi)回落0.9個(ge)百分點(dian)(dian)。M2增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)放緩的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)主要原(yuan)因是去杠(gang)桿和(he)金(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)融(rong)(rong)(rong)(rong)(rong)監(jian)管逐步(bu)加強(qiang)背景下(xia)(xia)銀(yin)行資(zi)金(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)運(yun)用(yong)(yong)更加規范、金(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)融(rong)(rong)(rong)(rong)(rong)部(bu)(bu)門內部(bu)(bu)資(zi)金(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)循環(huan)和(he)嵌套(tao)減少(shao)。縮短資(zi)金(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)鏈條也有(you)助于(yu)降低資(zi)金(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)成本,緩解融(rong)(rong)(rong)(rong)(rong)資(zi)難(nan)、融(rong)(rong)(rong)(rong)(rong)資(zi)貴問題。當前(qian)我(wo)(wo)國(guo)經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)保持平(ping)穩(wen)(wen)(wen)(wen)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang),內生增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)動力增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)強(qiang),M2增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)慢一些還有(you)利于(yu)從宏觀上(shang)實現(xian)穩(wen)(wen)(wen)(wen)杠(gang)桿。隨(sui)著(zhu)(zhu)供給側結構性改革逐步(bu)深化(hua)(hua),基建(jian)和(he)房地產等(deng)資(zi)金(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)密集型產業(ye)在(zai)經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)中的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)拉動作用(yong)(yong)有(you)所下(xia)(xia)降,同(tong)時服務業(ye)、技術進步(bu)等(deng)在(zai)推動經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)中的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)作用(yong)(yong)上(shang)升,實體(ti)(ti)經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)更趨“輕型”,由(you)此(ci)對(dui)(dui)貨(huo)(huo)幣(bi)信貸的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)依(yi)賴程(cheng)度有(you)所減輕。隨(sui)著(zhu)(zhu)經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)內生增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)動力不斷(duan)(duan)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)強(qiang),資(zi)金(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)周轉及貨(huo)(huo)幣(bi)流(liu)通(tong)速(su)(su)度亦會加快(kuai),因此(ci)相(xiang)對(dui)(dui)慢一點(dian)(dian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)貨(huo)(huo)幣(bi)信貸增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)仍可以支(zhi)持經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)實現(xian)平(ping)穩(wen)(wen)(wen)(wen)較(jiao)(jiao)快(kuai)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)。從歷史經(jing)(jing)驗看,在(zai)預(yu)期較(jiao)(jiao)差(cha)、經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)下(xia)(xia)行壓力較(jiao)(jiao)大時,M2增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)會超出名(ming)義GDP增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)較(jiao)(jiao)多;在(zai)經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)動能較(jiao)(jiao)強(qiang)、預(yu)期較(jiao)(jiao)好時,M2增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)與名(ming)義GDP增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)缺(que)口反(fan)而(er)縮小(xiao)。隨(sui)著(zhu)(zhu)去杠(gang)桿深化(hua)(hua)和(he)金(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)融(rong)(rong)(rong)(rong)(rong)進一步(bu)回歸為(wei)(wei)實體(ti)(ti)經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)服務,未來(lai)M2增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)比(bi)(bi)過去低一些將成為(wei)(wei)常態(tai)。還應看到(dao),在(zai)金(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)融(rong)(rong)(rong)(rong)(rong)市(shi)場和(he)金(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)融(rong)(rong)(rong)(rong)(rong)創新不斷(duan)(duan)發(fa)展的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)大背景下(xia)(xia),M2的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)可測性、可控(kong)性和(he)與實體(ti)(ti)經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)相(xiang)關(guan)性都在(zai)下(xia)(xia)降,對(dui)(dui)M2增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)變化(hua)(hua)不必(bi)過于(yu)關(guan)注。
2018年貨幣政策調控面臨的挑戰與政策思路
展(zhan)望2018年(nian),既(ji)有(you)(you)機遇也(ye)(ye)(ye)有(you)(you)挑戰。從(cong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)際(ji)上看(kan),全球(qiu)(qiu)經(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)濟(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)復蘇態(tai)勢仍(reng)(reng)(reng)可(ke)(ke)能(neng)(neng)(neng)延續,主要(yao)(yao)發(fa)(fa)達經(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)濟(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)體貨(huo)幣政(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)策(ce)將進(jin)一步趨向正常化(hua),美聯儲的(de)(de)(de)(de)進(jin)一步加息(xi)動作為各界所關注,全球(qiu)(qiu)利率中(zhong)樞可(ke)(ke)能(neng)(neng)(neng)會有(you)(you)所上行(xing)。美國(guo)(guo)(guo)減稅(shui)措施(shi)和(he)外貿(mao)政(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)策(ce)仍(reng)(reng)(reng)會給(gei)全球(qiu)(qiu)經(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)濟(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)格局帶來一定不(bu)(bu)確(que)(que)定性。地緣(yuan)政(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)治風(feng)險有(you)(you)可(ke)(ke)能(neng)(neng)(neng)多發(fa)(fa)頻(pin)發(fa)(fa),對(dui)(dui)國(guo)(guo)(guo)際(ji)金融市場的(de)(de)(de)(de)沖(chong)擊不(bu)(bu)容忽視。在全球(qiu)(qiu)經(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)濟(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)復蘇背景下外需回(hui)暖(nuan),對(dui)(dui)國(guo)(guo)(guo)內(nei)經(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)濟(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)具有(you)(you)一定的(de)(de)(de)(de)支撐(cheng)作用。但(dan)來自外部的(de)(de)(de)(de)不(bu)(bu)確(que)(que)定變(bian)化(hua)也(ye)(ye)(ye)可(ke)(ke)能(neng)(neng)(neng)向國(guo)(guo)(guo)內(nei)經(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)濟(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)金融領域傳導(dao),全球(qiu)(qiu)經(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)濟(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)復蘇和(he)大(da)宗商品價格回(hui)暖(nuan)還(huan)(huan)可(ke)(ke)能(neng)(neng)(neng)給(gei)國(guo)(guo)(guo)內(nei)物價形(xing)成(cheng)一些(xie)壓力。主要(yao)(yao)發(fa)(fa)達經(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)濟(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)體貨(huo)幣政(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)策(ce)取向變(bian)化(hua)也(ye)(ye)(ye)會對(dui)(dui)我(wo)們的(de)(de)(de)(de)政(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)策(ce)空(kong)間形(xing)成(cheng)一定擠壓,增(zeng)大(da)貨(huo)幣政(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)策(ce)操作的(de)(de)(de)(de)難度。從(cong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)內(nei)看(kan),隨著(zhu)供給(gei)側結構性改革(ge)、簡政(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)放(fang)權和(he)創新驅動戰略不(bu)(bu)斷深化(hua)實施(shi),中(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)經(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)濟(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)運行(xing)的(de)(de)(de)(de)穩定性、協調性進(jin)一步增(zeng)強,質量效(xiao)益提高。當前消費(fei)和(he)外需總體平(ping)穩,制造業產(chan)能(neng)(neng)(neng)出清、行(xing)業集(ji)中(zhong)度提升和(he)企業利潤改善較為明顯,已(yi)經(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)能(neng)(neng)(neng)夠看(kan)到我(wo)國(guo)(guo)(guo)經(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)濟(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)增(zeng)長質量提高、經(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)濟(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)結構優化(hua)的(de)(de)(de)(de)趨勢,預計(ji)2018年(nian)中(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)經(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)濟(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)仍(reng)(reng)(reng)有(you)(you)望保(bao)持(chi)平(ping)穩增(zeng)長。但(dan)也(ye)(ye)(ye)要(yao)(yao)看(kan)到,經(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)濟(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)中(zhong)仍(reng)(reng)(reng)存在一些(xie)問題和(he)隱患,內(nei)生增(zeng)長動力仍(reng)(reng)(reng)待強化(hua),結構調整(zheng)任重道遠,債務和(he)杠(gang)桿(gan)水平(ping)還(huan)(huan)處在高位(wei),資產(chan)泡(pao)沫“堰塞湖”的(de)(de)(de)(de)警報尚不(bu)(bu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)完全解除,金融亂象仍(reng)(reng)(reng)然存在,金融監(jian)管構架還(huan)(huan)有(you)(you)待進(jin)一步完善。面對(dui)(dui)復雜的(de)(de)(de)(de)內(nei)外部環(huan)境(jing),我(wo)們既(ji)要(yao)(yao)堅定理(li)想信念、不(bu)(bu)畏(wei)艱難險阻(zu),也(ye)(ye)(ye)要(yao)(yao)心存風(feng)險意識、時刻保(bao)持(chi)警惕。
2018年(nian)是貫(guan)徹黨(dang)的(de)十(shi)九大精(jing)神的(de)開局之年(nian),也是實施“十(shi)三五”規劃承上啟(qi)下的(de)關(guan)鍵一年(nian),人(ren)民(min)(min)銀行將深入學習貫(guan)徹黨(dang)的(de)十(shi)九大精(jing)神,認真落實中(zhong)央經濟(ji)工(gong)(gong)作會(hui)議和全國金(jin)融(rong)(rong)工(gong)(gong)作會(hui)議的(de)決策部署,以習近平新時代(dai)中(zhong)國特色社會(hui)主義經濟(ji)思想為指導,緊扣中(zhong)國社會(hui)主要矛盾變化,按照高質(zhi)量(liang)發(fa)展要求,實施好穩(wen)(wen)健中(zhong)性(xing)(xing)的(de)貨幣(bi)政(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)策,保持流動性(xing)(xing)合理穩(wen)(wen)定,健全貨幣(bi)政(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)策和宏觀審(shen)慎(shen)政(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)策雙支柱(zhu)調控框架(jia),守住(zhu)風險(xian)底線,積極推動金(jin)融(rong)(rong)改革(ge),促進信(xin)貸結構(gou)(gou)優化,做(zuo)好穩(wen)(wen)增長、促改革(ge)、調結構(gou)(gou)、惠民(min)(min)生、防風險(xian)各項工(gong)(gong)作,繼續為供給側結構(gou)(gou)性(xing)(xing)改革(ge)和高質(zhi)量(liang)發(fa)展營(ying)造中(zhong)性(xing)(xing)適度的(de)貨幣(bi)金(jin)融(rong)(rong)環境。
一是保持(chi)(chi)貨(huo)幣(bi)政(zheng)策(ce)的(de)穩健中(zhong)性(xing),管住貨(huo)幣(bi)供給(gei)總閘門,保持(chi)(chi)貨(huo)幣(bi)信貸和社會融資規(gui)模合理增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)。當前(qian),中(zhong)國經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)已經(jing)(jing)由高速增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)階(jie)段(duan)轉(zhuan)(zhuan)向高質量發(fa)展(zhan)階(jie)段(duan),應當更注重(zhong)經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)的(de)發(fa)展(zhan)質量,而非(fei)一味地追求(qiu)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)速度,已不再適(shi)宜粗放式的(de)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)模式,不能依靠貨(huo)幣(bi)信貸的(de)“大水(shui)漫灌”來拉動(dong)(dong)經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang),貨(huo)幣(bi)政(zheng)策(ce)要保持(chi)(chi)穩健中(zhong)性(xing),為轉(zhuan)(zhuan)變(bian)發(fa)展(zhan)方式、優化經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)結構(gou)、轉(zhuan)(zhuan)換增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)動(dong)(dong)力創造條件。人(ren)民銀(yin)行(xing)將按照穩健中(zhong)性(xing)貨(huo)幣(bi)政(zheng)策(ce)的(de)要求(qiu)做好總量調控(kong),根據調控(kong)需要和流(liu)動(dong)(dong)性(xing)形勢變(bian)化,綜合運用(yong)多種貨(huo)幣(bi)政(zheng)策(ce)工(gong)具,進一步增(zeng)(zeng)強流(liu)動(dong)(dong)性(xing)管理的(de)靈(ling)活性(xing)和有效性(xing),保持(chi)(chi)銀(yin)行(xing)體系流(liu)動(dong)(dong)性(xing)合理穩定,促(cu)進貨(huo)幣(bi)信貸和社會融資規(gui)模合理增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang),為經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)高質量發(fa)展(zhan)營造適(shi)宜的(de)流(liu)動(dong)(dong)性(xing)環境。
二是(shi)(shi)健全(quan)貨(huo)幣(bi)政(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)策(ce)(ce)和(he)宏觀審慎(shen)(shen)政(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)策(ce)(ce)雙支柱調(diao)控框架(jia),守(shou)住不(bu)發生系(xi)統性(xing)(xing)金(jin)(jin)融(rong)風險的(de)(de)(de)底(di)線。習近平(ping)總書(shu)記(ji)在黨(dang)的(de)(de)(de)十九(jiu)大報(bao)告中提出(chu)健全(quan)貨(huo)幣(bi)政(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)策(ce)(ce)和(he)宏觀審慎(shen)(shen)政(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)策(ce)(ce)雙支柱調(diao)控框架(jia)的(de)(de)(de)要求,這是(shi)(shi)對(dui)(dui)宏觀調(diao)控框架(jia)的(de)(de)(de)一次重大理論(lun)創新,是(shi)(shi)反思國際(ji)(ji)金(jin)(jin)融(rong)危機(ji)教訓并結合(he)我國國情的(de)(de)(de)重要舉措。本(ben)輪國際(ji)(ji)金(jin)(jin)融(rong)危機(ji)之前,主流央行政(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)策(ce)(ce)框架(jia)以貨(huo)幣(bi)政(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)策(ce)(ce)為(wei)核心,但貨(huo)幣(bi)政(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)策(ce)(ce)作(zuo)為(wei)總需求管理工具,在維護(hu)金(jin)(jin)融(rong)穩(wen)(wen)(wen)定(ding)(ding)方面有一定(ding)(ding)局限性(xing)(xing)。宏觀審慎(shen)(shen)政(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)策(ce)(ce)則直接作(zuo)用于金(jin)(jin)融(rong)體(ti)系(xi)本(ben)身,側(ce)重于抑制金(jin)(jin)融(rong)體(ti)系(xi)的(de)(de)(de)順周(zhou)期波動和(he)風險跨(kua)市場傳染,維護(hu)金(jin)(jin)融(rong)體(ti)系(xi)穩(wen)(wen)(wen)定(ding)(ding)。宏觀審慎(shen)(shen)政(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)策(ce)(ce)是(shi)(shi)對(dui)(dui)貨(huo)幣(bi)政(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)策(ce)(ce)的(de)(de)(de)有益補(bu)充,二者(zhe)的(de)(de)(de)協同(tong)互補(bu)能(neng)夠有效應對(dui)(dui)系(xi)統性(xing)(xing)金(jin)(jin)融(rong)風險,把保持幣(bi)值穩(wen)(wen)(wen)定(ding)(ding)和(he)維護(hu)金(jin)(jin)融(rong)穩(wen)(wen)(wen)定(ding)(ding)更好地結合(he)起(qi)來(lai)。人民(min)銀(yin)行將深入(ru)(ru)貫徹落實黨(dang)的(de)(de)(de)十九(jiu)大精神,進(jin)一步完善宏觀審慎(shen)(shen)政(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)策(ce)(ce)框架(jia),探索將影子銀(yin)行、房地產(chan)金(jin)(jin)融(rong)、互聯(lian)網(wang)金(jin)(jin)融(rong)等納(na)入(ru)(ru)宏觀審慎(shen)(shen)政(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)策(ce)(ce)框架(jia),將同(tong)業存單、綠色信貸(dai)業績考(kao)核納(na)入(ru)(ru)MPA考(kao)核,優化跨(kua)境資(zi)本(ben)流動宏觀審慎(shen)(shen)政(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)策(ce)(ce),對(dui)(dui)資(zi)本(ben)流動進(jin)行逆(ni)周(zhou)期調(diao)節(jie)。
三(san)是適當發(fa)揮(hui)(hui)貨(huo)(huo)幣(bi)(bi)信貸(dai)(dai)(dai)(dai)政策(ce)的(de)(de)(de)結(jie)構引導(dao)作(zuo)用(yong),進一(yi)步(bu)優化信貸(dai)(dai)(dai)(dai)結(jie)構。受制于投資(zi)收(shou)益率和(he)回報周(zhou)期等因素,社(she)會資(zi)本在(zai)(zai)國(guo)民經(jing)濟重(zhong)點(dian)領域(yu)(yu)(yu)、薄(bo)弱(ruo)環節和(he)社(she)會事業(ye)等方面參(can)與熱(re)情相對(dui)較低。在(zai)(zai)控制好(hao)總量的(de)(de)(de)前(qian)提下,貨(huo)(huo)幣(bi)(bi)政策(ce)可以在(zai)(zai)這些領域(yu)(yu)(yu)適當使用(yong)結(jie)構性工(gong)具(ju)為推動經(jing)濟結(jie)構調整發(fa)揮(hui)(hui)一(yi)定(ding)(ding)的(de)(de)(de)輔助作(zuo)用(yong)。人民銀行將(jiang)落實(shi)好(hao)對(dui)普(pu)惠金(jin)融(rong)領域(yu)(yu)(yu)貸(dai)(dai)(dai)(dai)款(kuan)(kuan)達到一(yi)定(ding)(ding)標準的(de)(de)(de)金(jin)融(rong)機構實(shi)施定(ding)(ding)向降準的(de)(de)(de)相關工(gong)作(zuo)。繼續(xu)運用(yong)信貸(dai)(dai)(dai)(dai)政策(ce)支(zhi)(zhi)持再(zai)(zai)貸(dai)(dai)(dai)(dai)款(kuan)(kuan)、再(zai)(zai)貼現、PSL等工(gong)具(ju)支(zhi)(zhi)持引導(dao)金(jin)融(rong)機構加(jia)大(da)對(dui)國(guo)民經(jing)濟重(zhong)點(dian)領域(yu)(yu)(yu)和(he)薄(bo)弱(ruo)環節的(de)(de)(de)支(zhi)(zhi)持力度。加(jia)大(da)對(dui)深(shen)度貧困地區(qu)的(de)(de)(de)扶貧再(zai)(zai)貸(dai)(dai)(dai)(dai)款(kuan)(kuan)支(zhi)(zhi)持力度。向全國(guo)推廣信貸(dai)(dai)(dai)(dai)資(zi)產(chan)質押和(he)央行內部(企(qi)(qi)業(ye))評級試點(dian),將(jiang)符合標準的(de)(de)(de)小(xiao)微企(qi)(qi)業(ye)貸(dai)(dai)(dai)(dai)款(kuan)(kuan)、綠色貸(dai)(dai)(dai)(dai)款(kuan)(kuan)納入(ru)貨(huo)(huo)幣(bi)(bi)政策(ce)操作(zuo)的(de)(de)(de)合格擔保品范圍(wei)。
四是(shi)繼(ji)續(xu)穩妥推(tui)進各(ge)項金(jin)融(rong)(rong)(rong)改(gai)(gai)革,充分發揮市(shi)場(chang)在(zai)(zai)資(zi)(zi)源(yuan)配(pei)置中(zhong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)決定(ding)(ding)(ding)性(xing)作用。利(li)(li)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)市(shi)場(chang)化(hua)改(gai)(gai)革是(shi)金(jin)融(rong)(rong)(rong)體制(zhi)改(gai)(gai)革的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)核心內容之一(yi)(yi)(yi),有利(li)(li)于提高(gao)金(jin)融(rong)(rong)(rong)業(ye)競爭力(li)、增強(qiang)(qiang)金(jin)融(rong)(rong)(rong)體系(xi)韌性(xing),為(wei)推(tui)動(dong)(dong)金(jin)融(rong)(rong)(rong)機構(gou)(gou)轉型發展注入(ru)新的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)動(dong)(dong)力(li),也為(wei)貨幣(bi)(bi)政策調(diao)控(kong)(kong)框架轉型創(chuang)造有利(li)(li)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)條件。同時,進一(yi)(yi)(yi)步(bu)推(tui)進利(li)(li)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)市(shi)場(chang)化(hua)改(gai)(gai)革對(dui)于優(you)化(hua)資(zi)(zi)源(yuan)配(pei)置具有重大意(yi)義,是(shi)以(yi)市(shi)場(chang)化(hua)方式推(tui)進“三去一(yi)(yi)(yi)降一(yi)(yi)(yi)補”的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)重要一(yi)(yi)(yi)環。人民(min)(min)銀行(xing)將按照“放(fang)得開、形(xing)得成、調(diao)得了”的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)基(ji)本(ben)要求,進一(yi)(yi)(yi)步(bu)推(tui)進利(li)(li)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)市(shi)場(chang)化(hua)改(gai)(gai)革,提高(gao)金(jin)融(rong)(rong)(rong)資(zi)(zi)源(yuan)配(pei)置效率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv),完善金(jin)融(rong)(rong)(rong)調(diao)控(kong)(kong)機制(zhi)。進一(yi)(yi)(yi)步(bu)督(du)促金(jin)融(rong)(rong)(rong)機構(gou)(gou)健(jian)全(quan)內控(kong)(kong)制(zhi)度,增強(qiang)(qiang)自(zi)主合理定(ding)(ding)(ding)價能(neng)力(li)和(he)風險管(guan)理水(shui)平,從提高(gao)金(jin)融(rong)(rong)(rong)市(shi)場(chang)深(shen)度入(ru)手繼(ji)續(xu)培(pei)育(yu)市(shi)場(chang)基(ji)準利(li)(li)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)和(he)完善國(guo)債收益率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)曲線,不斷健(jian)全(quan)市(shi)場(chang)化(hua)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)利(li)(li)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)形(xing)成機制(zhi)。探索(suo)和(he)完善利(li)(li)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)走廊(lang)機制(zhi),增強(qiang)(qiang)利(li)(li)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)調(diao)控(kong)(kong)能(neng)力(li),進一(yi)(yi)(yi)步(bu)疏通央行(xing)政策利(li)(li)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)向(xiang)金(jin)融(rong)(rong)(rong)市(shi)場(chang)及實體經濟(ji)(ji)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)傳(chuan)導(dao)。當前(qian),我(wo)國(guo)經濟(ji)(ji)繼(ji)續(xu)保持穩中(zhong)向(xiang)好(hao)態(tai)勢,人民(min)(min)幣(bi)(bi)匯(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)有條件繼(ji)續(xu)在(zai)(zai)合理均衡水(shui)平上保持基(ji)本(ben)穩定(ding)(ding)(ding),當然國(guo)內外市(shi)場(chang)還存在(zai)(zai)不確(que)定(ding)(ding)(ding)性(xing)。在(zai)(zai)此(ci)背景下,人民(min)(min)幣(bi)(bi)匯(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)雙向(xiang)波動(dong)(dong)將成為(wei)常態(tai)。匯(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)能(neng)夠發揮宏觀經濟(ji)(ji)“自(zi)動(dong)(dong)穩定(ding)(ding)(ding)器”的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)作用,人民(min)(min)幣(bi)(bi)匯(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)形(xing)成機制(zhi)市(shi)場(chang)化(hua)改(gai)(gai)革的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)有序(xu)推(tui)進和(he)匯(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)彈性(xing)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)增強(qiang)(qiang)能(neng)夠有效提升(sheng)我(wo)國(guo)經濟(ji)(ji)金(jin)融(rong)(rong)(rong)體系(xi)應(ying)對(dui)外部(bu)沖擊的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)韌性(xing)。人民(min)(min)銀行(xing)將繼(ji)續(xu)深(shen)化(hua)人民(min)(min)幣(bi)(bi)匯(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)形(xing)成機制(zhi)改(gai)(gai)革,完善以(yi)市(shi)場(chang)供求為(wei)基(ji)礎、參(can)考(kao)一(yi)(yi)(yi)籃子貨幣(bi)(bi)進行(xing)調(diao)節(jie)、有管(guan)理的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)浮(fu)動(dong)(dong)匯(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)制(zhi)度,加大市(shi)場(chang)決定(ding)(ding)(ding)匯(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)力(li)度,增強(qiang)(qiang)人民(min)(min)幣(bi)(bi)匯(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)彈性(xing),保持人民(min)(min)幣(bi)(bi)匯(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)在(zai)(zai)全(quan)球貨幣(bi)(bi)體系(xi)中(zhong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)穩定(ding)(ding)(ding)地位。
中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)證(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)聲明(ming)(ming):凡本(ben)(ben)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)注明(ming)(ming)“來源(yuan):中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)證(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)券報·中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)證(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)”的所有作(zuo)(zuo)品,版權均(jun)屬于中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)證(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)券報、中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)證(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)。中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)證(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)券報·中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)證(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)與作(zuo)(zuo)品作(zuo)(zuo)者(zhe)聯合聲明(ming)(ming),任何組織未(wei)經中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)證(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)券報、中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)證(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)以及作(zuo)(zuo)者(zhe)書面授權不得轉載、摘編或利(li)(li)用其它方式使用上述作(zuo)(zuo)品。凡本(ben)(ben)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)注明(ming)(ming)來源(yuan)非(fei)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)證(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)券報·中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)證(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)的作(zuo)(zuo)品,均(jun)轉載自其它媒體,轉載目的在于更(geng)好服務讀者(zhe)、傳遞信息之需,并(bing)不代表本(ben)(ben)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)贊同其觀點,本(ben)(ben)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)亦不對(dui)其真實性負責,持異(yi)議者(zhe)應與原(yuan)出處單位(wei)主張(zhang)權利(li)(li)。
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Copyright 2001-2018 China Securities Journal. All Rights Reserved