中(zhong)證(zheng)網(wang)訊(xun)（記者 彭揚）央行(xing)(xing)5月(yue)31日(ri)表(biao)示，為加強金(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)融機(ji)構外(wai)(wai)匯(hui)流(liu)動(dong)性管理，決(jue)定自(zi)2021年(nian)(nian)6月(yue)15日(ri)起，上調(diao)金(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)融機(ji)構外(wai)(wai)匯(hui)存(cun)款準(zhun)備金(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)率2個百分(fen)點，即(ji)外(wai)(wai)匯(hui)存(cun)款準(zhun)備金(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)率由現行(xing)(xing)的5%提高到7%。中(zhong)銀證(zheng)券全球首(shou)席經濟學家(jia)管濤(tao)對此(ci)表(biao)示，2021年(nian)(nian)以來，金(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)融機(ji)構外(wai)(wai)匯(hui)存(cun)款明(ming)顯增加，4月(yue)末外(wai)(wai)匯(hui)存(cun)款余額(e)約為1萬(wan)億(yi)美(mei)元，外(wai)(wai)匯(hui)流(liu)動(dong)性寬松(song)，央行(xing)(xing)將(jiang)外(wai)(wai)匯(hui)存(cun)款準(zhun)備金(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)率上調(diao)2個百分(fen)點，可凍結約200億(yi)美(mei)元外(wai)(wai)匯(hui)流(liu)動(dong)性，有助(zhu)于收緊境(jing)內市(shi)場外(wai)(wai)匯(hui)流(liu)動(dong)性，提高境(jing)內外(wai)(wai)幣利率，縮小境(jing)內本(ben)外(wai)(wai)幣利差，抑制即(ji)期和遠期結匯(hui)，促進(jin)境(jing)內外(wai)(wai)匯(hui)市(shi)場平衡。

　　管濤分析(xi)，此(ci)次(ci)政(zheng)策調(diao)整傳遞出(chu)(chu)(chu)兩個信號，一(yi)是央(yang)行不(bu)會(hui)放任人(ren)民(min)幣過快升(sheng)值(zhi)(zhi)，必要(yao)時將果(guo)(guo)斷出(chu)(chu)(chu)手(shou)。人(ren)民(min)幣對美元匯(hui)率中間價從去年(nian)5月末至今升(sheng)幅(fu)已(yi)經(jing)(jing)不(bu)小(xiao)，繼續升(sheng)值(zhi)(zhi)有(you)可能使人(ren)民(min)幣幣值(zhi)(zhi)脫離基(ji)本面。疫情(qing)對我國(guo)(guo)經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)的影(ying)響(xiang)尚未完全消(xiao)失，繼續大幅(fu)升(sheng)值(zhi)(zhi)可能對出(chu)(chu)(chu)口企業造成較大負(fu)面影(ying)響(xiang)，越(yue)來越(yue)多的市(shi)場(chang)權威(wei)人(ren)士認為(wei)當前人(ren)民(min)幣對美元匯(hui)率已(yi)出(chu)(chu)(chu)現超調(diao)。近期，由(you)人(ren)民(min)銀行和(he)國(guo)(guo)家(jia)外(wai)匯(hui)管理局指(zhi)導的全國(guo)(guo)外(wai)匯(hui)市(shi)場(chang)自律機制(zhi)召(zhao)開會(hui)議，會(hui)后新聞(wen)稿即針對炒作(zuo)升(sheng)值(zhi)(zhi)的言論(lun)傳達明確信號，表明央(yang)行有(you)意(yi)向市(shi)場(chang)中炒作(zuo)升(sheng)值(zhi)(zhi)的投資者發(fa)出(chu)(chu)(chu)警告(gao)，必要(yao)時可能會(hui)果(guo)(guo)斷出(chu)(chu)(chu)手(shou)、采取有(you)力措施應(ying)對。此(ci)次(ci)上調(diao)外(wai)匯(hui)存款準備金率說明央(yang)行言出(chu)(chu)(chu)必行。

　　二是央行(xing)(xing)(xing)不(bu)出(chu)手則(ze)已，出(chu)手必(bi)是重(zhong)拳。以(yi)往央行(xing)(xing)(xing)調(diao)整(zheng)人(ren)(ren)民幣(bi)存(cun)(cun)款準(zhun)(zhun)備(bei)(bei)金率(lv)一般(ban)每(mei)次(ci)調(diao)整(zheng)0.5個(ge)百分點，此(ci)次(ci)外(wai)匯(hui)存(cun)(cun)款準(zhun)(zhun)備(bei)(bei)金率(lv)上調(diao)幅(fu)(fu)度為(wei)2個(ge)百分點，明顯超出(chu)以(yi)往人(ren)(ren)民幣(bi)存(cun)(cun)款準(zhun)(zhun)備(bei)(bei)金率(lv)的調(diao)整(zheng)幅(fu)(fu)度，力度較大，彰(zhang)顯央行(xing)(xing)(xing)調(diao)控決心。此(ci)次(ci)央行(xing)(xing)(xing)沒有使用(yong)外(wai)匯(hui)風險準(zhun)(zhun)備(bei)(bei)金等過去幾年(nian)常用(yong)的政策，而(er)是動用(yong)了(le)外(wai)匯(hui)存(cun)(cun)款準(zhun)(zhun)備(bei)(bei)金率(lv)這(zhe)一過去較少使用(yong)的工(gong)(gong)具(ju)，說明央行(xing)(xing)(xing)工(gong)(gong)具(ju)箱中的工(gong)(gong)具(ju)還很多(duo)，央行(xing)(xing)(xing)自由選(xuan)擇的空間很大。未來如果外(wai)匯(hui)市場出(chu)現明顯的投機跡(ji)象，還會源源不(bu)斷地(di)推(tui)出(chu)其(qi)他(ta)宏(hong)觀審慎工(gong)(gong)具(ju)。