中證(zheng)(zheng)網訊（記者(zhe) 昝(zan)秀(xiu)麗）11月(yue)21日，證(zheng)(zheng)監(jian)會主席(xi)易(yi)會滿在2022金融街論壇年(nian)會上對(dui)中國(guo)資本市(shi)場建設(she)和(he)發展做了重要(yao)講話，詳細闡述了如(ru)何建設(she)“中國(guo)特色現(xian)代(dai)資本市(shi)場”，并指出“探索建立具(ju)有(you)中國(guo)特色的估值體(ti)系，促進市(shi)場資源配(pei)置功能(neng)更好發揮”。

　　中金公司認(ren)(ren)為，探索建(jian)立具有(you)中國(guo)特(te)(te)色(se)的(de)估(gu)值(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)體(ti)系，促進(jin)市(shi)(shi)(shi)場資源配置功能更(geng)好發(fa)揮，這在中國(guo)資本市(shi)(shi)(shi)場是重要且現實(shi)的(de)問題。在上市(shi)(shi)(shi)公司結(jie)構(gou)(gou)與(yu)估(gu)值(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)問題上，講話中既提(ti)及中國(guo)資本市(shi)(shi)(shi)場“多種所有(you)制經濟并(bing)存、覆蓋全部行業(ye)大類、大中小企業(ye)共同發(fa)展(zhan)的(de)上市(shi)(shi)(shi)公司結(jie)構(gou)(gou)”特(te)(te)征，又指出應“深刻認(ren)(ren)識我們的(de)市(shi)(shi)(shi)場體(ti)制機制、行業(ye)產(chan)業(ye)結(jie)構(gou)(gou)、主體(ti)持續(xu)發(fa)展(zhan)能力所體(ti)現的(de)鮮明中國(guo)元(yuan)素(su)、發(fa)展(zhan)階段特(te)(te)征，深入研究成熟市(shi)(shi)(shi)場估(gu)值(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)理論的(de)適用(yong)場景，把握好不同類型上市(shi)(shi)(shi)公司的(de)估(gu)值(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)邏輯”。該機構(gou)(gou)認(ren)(ren)為，從整體(ti)市(shi)(shi)(shi)場尤其(qi)是A股(gu)市(shi)(shi)(shi)場的(de)估(gu)值(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)體(ti)系來看，盡管A股(gu)國(guo)際(ji)化(hua)程度近年有(you)所提(ti)升，但國(guo)內(nei)資金仍然主導(dao)市(shi)(shi)(shi)場定(ding)價，A股(gu)的(de)估(gu)值(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)更(geng)多由內(nei)部的(de)基本面(mian)預期變化(hua)、流動性和風險溢(yi)價等因素(su)決(jue)定(ding)。

　　該機構判斷，A股(gu)的(de)長(chang)期(qi)估(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)值中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)樞(shu)仍將保持(chi)穩定且具備提(ti)(ti)(ti)升(sheng)空間，同(tong)時要關注風(feng)險溢價(jia)波(bo)(bo)動(dong)。長(chang)期(qi)向好(hao)的(de)基(ji)本(ben)面是維(wei)(wei)持(chi)A股(gu)估(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)值中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)樞(shu)穩定的(de)基(ji)礎。中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)內(nei)需大市(shi)場(chang)潛(qian)力大、政策(ce)(ce)約束相對(dui)(dui)少、改革與挖(wa)潛(qian)空間足，只要政策(ce)(ce)及(ji)(ji)時適度、保持(chi)逆周期(qi)調節，中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)經濟(ji)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)長(chang)期(qi)有望繼續(xu)維(wei)(wei)持(chi)高質量發(fa)展。上(shang)市(shi)公司(si)質量提(ti)(ti)(ti)升(sheng)及(ji)(ji)資(zi)本(ben)市(shi)場(chang)基(ji)礎制度完善也有助于(yu)支撐A股(gu)市(shi)場(chang)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)長(chang)期(qi)估(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)值中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)樞(shu)；流(liu)動(dong)性層面，雖(sui)然(ran)市(shi)場(chang)流(liu)動(dong)性有周期(qi)性波(bo)(bo)動(dong)，但(dan)從中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)長(chang)期(qi)來(lai)看(kan)伴(ban)隨(sui)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)居(ju)民財富效應的(de)累積(ji)，中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)家庭居(ju)民資(zi)產配(pei)置已經逐漸迎來(lai)向金融資(zi)產配(pei)置的(de)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)長(chang)期(qi)拐點，對(dui)(dui)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)市(shi)場(chang)估(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)值帶來(lai)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)長(chang)期(qi)支持(chi)；風(feng)險溢價(jia)波(bo)(bo)動(dong)直接反映投(tou)(tou)資(zi)者(zhe)風(feng)險偏好(hao)的(de)變(bian)化，全球百年未有之大變(bian)局背景下，中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)在(zai)當前國(guo)(guo)際不確定性提(ti)(ti)(ti)升(sheng)環境中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)的(de)內(nei)外(wai)應對(dui)(dui)也將對(dui)(dui)估(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)值帶來(lai)影響(xiang)。近十(shi)年來(lai)全部A股(gu)的(de)市(shi)盈(ying)率（TTM）波(bo)(bo)動(dong)區間在(zai)11-35倍，中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)短(duan)期(qi)（3-6個月(yue)）投(tou)(tou)資(zi)回報及(ji)(ji)市(shi)場(chang)表現(xian)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)估(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)值的(de)影響(xiang)程度多高于(yu)基(ji)本(ben)面因素。

　　估(gu)(gu)值(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)結(jie)構有改(gai)善(shan)空(kong)間，尤其(qi)(qi)是部分(fen)銀(yin)(yin)行(xing)及(ji)國(guo)(guo)(guo)有上(shang)市(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)等(deng)(deng)估(gu)(gu)值(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)長期(qi)(qi)(qi)、普遍偏(pian)(pian)(pian)低。從結(jie)構上(shang)來(lai)(lai)看，A股(gu)估(gu)(gu)值(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)并不均(jun)衡。近(jin)十(shi)(shi)年(nian)銀(yin)(yin)行(xing)及(ji)國(guo)(guo)(guo)有上(shang)市(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)公(gong)(gong)司(si)的(de)(de)(de)(de)估(gu)(gu)值(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)趨勢回落，當前已處于歷史區(qu)間偏(pian)(pian)(pian)低水(shui)平(ping)，這與(yu)近(jin)年(nian)中國(guo)(guo)(guo)銀(yin)(yin)行(xing)業(ye)和(he)(he)(he)國(guo)(guo)(guo)有企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)的(de)(de)(de)(de)相對(dui)(dui)有韌性(xing)的(de)(de)(de)(de)基(ji)(ji)本面(mian)(mian)形成(cheng)反差。截(jie)至2022年(nian)11月21日，上(shang)市(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)國(guo)(guo)(guo)企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)和(he)(he)(he)非(fei)國(guo)(guo)(guo)企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)市(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)盈(ying)率(lv)TTM估(gu)(gu)值(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)分(fen)別(bie)為11.0倍和(he)(he)(he)34.3倍；其(qi)(qi)中金(jin)融板塊的(de)(de)(de)(de)估(gu)(gu)值(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)更低，當前的(de)(de)(de)(de)市(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)盈(ying)率(lv)和(he)(he)(he)市(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)凈率(lv)分(fen)別(bie)為5.9倍和(he)(he)(he)0.58倍，市(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)凈率(lv)估(gu)(gu)值(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)已處于歷史最低狀態(tai)；上(shang)市(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)銀(yin)(yin)行(xing)的(de)(de)(de)(de)市(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)盈(ying)率(lv)和(he)(he)(he)市(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)凈率(lv)為4.3倍和(he)(he)(he)0.51倍，股(gu)息率(lv)高至6.1%。橫向對(dui)(dui)比全(quan)球(qiu)公(gong)(gong)司(si)，中國(guo)(guo)(guo)的(de)(de)(de)(de)銀(yin)(yin)行(xing)及(ji)國(guo)(guo)(guo)有上(shang)市(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)公(gong)(gong)司(si)的(de)(de)(de)(de)估(gu)(gu)值(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)也普遍低于海(hai)外可比公(gong)(gong)司(si)。銀(yin)(yin)行(xing)及(ji)國(guo)(guo)(guo)有上(shang)市(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)公(gong)(gong)司(si)偏(pian)(pian)(pian)低估(gu)(gu)值(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)產生的(de)(de)(de)(de)原因可能是多方面(mian)(mian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)：利(li)率(lv)市(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)場化(hua)等(deng)(deng)因素影響市(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)場對(dui)(dui)銀(yin)(yin)行(xing)業(ye)績(ji)預期(qi)(qi)(qi)，銀(yin)(yin)行(xing)作為周期(qi)(qi)(qi)性(xing)行(xing)業(ye)業(ye)績(ji)受宏觀(guan)經(jing)濟波動影響較大；在(zai)中國(guo)(guo)(guo)的(de)(de)(de)(de)新(xin)老(lao)經(jing)濟轉型過(guo)程(cheng)(cheng)中，銀(yin)(yin)行(xing)業(ye)基(ji)(ji)本認知屬于傳(chuan)統(tong)領域，上(shang)市(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)國(guo)(guo)(guo)企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)中傳(chuan)統(tong)老(lao)經(jing)濟行(xing)業(ye)占比也較高，在(zai)此(ci)背景下近(jin)十(shi)(shi)年(nian)上(shang)市(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)公(gong)(gong)司(si)中新(xin)經(jing)濟表現(xian)(xian)整(zheng)體好于傳(chuan)統(tong)經(jing)濟。且投(tou)資(zi)者(zhe)對(dui)(dui)銀(yin)(yin)行(xing)及(ji)國(guo)(guo)(guo)有上(shang)市(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)公(gong)(gong)司(si)的(de)(de)(de)(de)賬面(mian)(mian)價值(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)認知也存在(zai)一定分(fen)歧；銀(yin)(yin)行(xing)業(ye)內客(ke)觀(guan)存在(zai)同(tong)質化(hua)、經(jing)營管理等(deng)(deng)方面(mian)(mian)市(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)場化(hua)程(cheng)(cheng)度不高等(deng)(deng)現(xian)(xian)象，也是投(tou)資(zi)者(zhe)當前對(dui)(dui)銀(yin)(yin)行(xing)定價不高的(de)(de)(de)(de)主要原因；等(deng)(deng)等(deng)(deng)。實(shi)際上(shang)，從經(jing)營層面(mian)(mian)來(lai)(lai)看，國(guo)(guo)(guo)有上(shang)市(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)公(gong)(gong)司(si)在(zai)2016年(nian)以來(lai)(lai)的(de)(de)(de)(de)盈(ying)利(li)增(zeng)(zeng)速和(he)(he)(he)盈(ying)利(li)能力相比非(fei)國(guo)(guo)(guo)企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)均(jun)有較為明顯的(de)(de)(de)(de)改(gai)善(shan)，債(zhai)務壓(ya)力問題經(jing)歷多年(nian)國(guo)(guo)(guo)企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)改(gai)革也已基(ji)(ji)本化(hua)解，上(shang)市(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)銀(yin)(yin)行(xing)盈(ying)利(li)增(zeng)(zeng)長較為穩健且ROE高于非(fei)金(jin)融整(zheng)體，未來(lai)(lai)在(zai)“中國(guo)(guo)(guo)特色現(xian)(xian)代資(zi)本市(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)場”的(de)(de)(de)(de)積極建(jian)設(she)過(guo)程(cheng)(cheng)中，投(tou)資(zi)者(zhe)有望逐(zhu)步改(gai)善(shan)對(dui)(dui)上(shang)市(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)國(guo)(guo)(guo)企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)和(he)(he)(he)金(jin)融板塊的(de)(de)(de)(de)價值(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)認知。綜合來(lai)(lai)看，該機構認為銀(yin)(yin)行(xing)及(ji)國(guo)(guo)(guo)有上(shang)市(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)估(gu)(gu)值(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)中樞(shu)有提升空(kong)間。

　　市(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)投(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)者(zhe)結(jie)(jie)構(gou)(gou)(gou)(gou)也(ye)對(dui)中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)本(ben)市(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)估(gu)值體系產生一定影(ying)響(xiang)。近年來，“A股(gu)(gu)市(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)投(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)者(zhe)結(jie)(jie)構(gou)(gou)(gou)(gou)正(zheng)在(zai)發(fa)生積極(ji)的(de)(de)趨(qu)勢(shi)性(xing)變化，機(ji)構(gou)(gou)(gou)(gou)投(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)者(zhe)持股(gu)(gu)和交(jiao)易占(zhan)比(bi)穩步上升(sheng)”，該機(ji)構(gou)(gou)(gou)(gou)測算，截至(zhi)2022年上半年，機(ji)構(gou)(gou)(gou)(gou)投(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)者(zhe)在(zai)A股(gu)(gu)自由流通市(shi)(shi)(shi)值的(de)(de)占(zhan)比(bi)已(yi)經提(ti)升(sheng)至(zhi)57.9%，中(zhong)(zhong)長(chang)期機(ji)構(gou)(gou)(gou)(gou)投(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)者(zhe)的(de)(de)絕對(dui)規(gui)模和占(zhan)比(bi)仍(reng)有(you)進(jin)一步提(ti)升(sheng)空(kong)間(jian)。但須注意(yi)的(de)(de)是，當前(qian)(qian)A股(gu)(gu)“個人投(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)者(zhe)數(shu)量已(yi)超過2億，個人投(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)者(zhe)的(de)(de)交(jiao)易占(zhan)比(bi)仍(reng)在(zai)60%左右(you)”。當前(qian)(qian)的(de)(de)投(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)者(zhe)結(jie)(jie)構(gou)(gou)(gou)(gou)特征對(dui)市(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)估(gu)值體系也(ye)會帶來影(ying)響(xiang)，A股(gu)(gu)市(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)估(gu)值波(bo)動區間(jian)較(jiao)大(da)、市(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)價(jia)(jia)值發(fa)現功能尚未得到更好發(fa)揮(hui)、銀行及國(guo)有(you)上市(shi)(shi)(shi)企業(ye)估(gu)值被(bei)長(chang)期低估(gu)，等等，也(ye)與當前(qian)(qian)投(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)者(zhe)結(jie)(jie)構(gou)(gou)(gou)(gou)特征有(you)關。講話中(zhong)(zhong)指(zhi)出“從全球看，各國(guo)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)本(ben)市(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)投(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)者(zhe)結(jie)(jie)構(gou)(gou)(gou)(gou)差(cha)異較(jiao)大(da)，也(ye)沒有(you)最佳的(de)(de)投(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)者(zhe)結(jie)(jie)構(gou)(gou)(gou)(gou)，但機(ji)構(gou)(gou)(gou)(gou)化是一個大(da)趨(qu)勢(shi)”，積極(ji)培(pei)養專(zhuan)業(ye)化程度較(jiao)高、注重價(jia)(jia)值和長(chang)期投(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)的(de)(de)各類金融機(ji)構(gou)(gou)(gou)(gou)，有(you)助于建(jian)設中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)特色的(de)(de)估(gu)值體系。

　　A股(gu)市(shi)場(chang)投(tou)資(zi)(zi)理念和文(wen)(wen)(wen)化也(ye)對中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)資(zi)(zi)本市(shi)場(chang)估值體系有影響。講話(hua)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)指出“我國(guo)(guo)(guo)資(zi)(zi)本市(shi)場(chang)起(qi)步(bu)晚、發(fa)展(zhan)快，市(shi)場(chang)的(de)(de)(de)文(wen)(wen)(wen)化積(ji)淀(dian)還不夠”。映射到投(tou)資(zi)(zi)文(wen)(wen)(wen)化與理念上，主要(yao)體現(xian)在國(guo)(guo)(guo)內的(de)(de)(de)部分機構(gou)投(tou)資(zi)(zi)者還沒能(neng)“牢固樹(shu)立價值投(tou)資(zi)(zi)的(de)(de)(de)理念，熱衷(zhong)于追逐市(shi)場(chang)熱點”。該機構(gou)認為，在建(jian)設“中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)特色現(xian)代資(zi)(zi)本市(shi)場(chang)”理念下，通過“把資(zi)(zi)本市(shi)場(chang)一般規律(lv)與中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)市(shi)場(chang)的(de)(de)(de)實(shi)際(ji)相結合(he)(he)、與中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)華優秀傳統文(wen)(wen)(wen)化相結合(he)(he)”，A股(gu)的(de)(de)(de)投(tou)資(zi)(zi)理念也(ye)有望逐步(bu)向價值投(tou)資(zi)(zi)、長期投(tou)資(zi)(zi)轉變，吸取國(guo)(guo)(guo)際(ji)成(cheng)(cheng)熟市(shi)場(chang)的(de)(de)(de)長處，并結合(he)(he)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)資(zi)(zi)本市(shi)場(chang)的(de)(de)(de)發(fa)展(zhan)特色，逐步(bu)形(xing)成(cheng)(cheng)具備中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)特色的(de)(de)(de)投(tou)資(zi)(zi)文(wen)(wen)(wen)化，也(ye)有助于建(jian)立具有中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)特色的(de)(de)(de)估值體系。