中(zhong)證網訊(xun)(記者 馬爽)經(jing)過(guo)昨日(ri)回落(luo)調整之后,10月11日(ri),國內玉米期貨震蕩走升,主(zhu)力1901合(he)約盤中(zhong)最高一度升至1866元/噸,較10日(ri)盤中(zhong)最低(di)點1840元/噸累計上漲26元/噸。在新季玉米集中(zhong)上市以及臨儲拍賣的情況下(xia),玉米期價緣何逆勢(shi)走高?
方正中(zhong)(zhong)期(qi)(qi)期(qi)(qi)貨分(fen)析師解(jie)釋稱,國(guo)慶節(jie)之(zhi)后,我國(guo)新(xin)季(ji)玉(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)米(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)將由南向(xiang)北(bei)開(kai)始集中(zhong)(zhong)上(shang)(shang)市,并且臨儲玉(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)米(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)拍(pai)賣(mai)(mai)還在(zai)以(yi)每周800萬噸的(de)(de)巨量持續拍(pai)賣(mai)(mai);新(xin)陳玉(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)米(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)疊加(jia)(jia),造(zao)成(cheng)國(guo)內玉(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)米(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)供給壓力陡增(zeng)。目前(qian)東(dong)北(bei)地(di)區拍(pai)賣(mai)(mai)糧(liang)仍有(you)2000多萬噸尚未出(chu)庫(ku),疊加(jia)(jia)新(xin)糧(liang)上(shang)(shang)市,玉(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)米(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)市場(chang)供給充足。但(dan)部分(fen)地(di)區減產(chan)預期(qi)(qi)較(jiao)(jiao)強,農戶(hu)惜售情緒濃厚,玉(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)米(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)價(jia)格(ge)較(jiao)(jiao)為堅挺。華(hua)北(bei)地(di)區,“十(shi)一”國(guo)慶期(qi)(qi)間天(tian)氣良好(hao),糧(liang)質較(jiao)(jiao)去(qu)年有(you)了(le)明(ming)(ming)顯好(hao)轉,深(shen)加(jia)(jia)工企業(ye)也樂(le)于收購優質玉(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)米(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi),提(ti)振當地(di)玉(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)米(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)價(jia)格(ge),在(zai)一定程度上(shang)(shang)支撐玉(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)米(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)盤面(mian)上(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)。但(dan)從(cong)短期(qi)(qi)來(lai)看,目前(qian)國(guo)內深(shen)加(jia)(jia)工企業(ye)整體庫(ku)存都處于相對(dui)安全水平,庫(ku)存量較(jiao)(jiao)去(qu)年有(you)了(le)明(ming)(ming)顯的(de)(de)增(zeng)加(jia)(jia),深(shen)加(jia)(jia)工企業(ye)對(dui)于玉(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)米(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)的(de)(de)補庫(ku)需(xu)求(qiu)也是隨(sui)買(mai)隨(sui)用。不過,目前(qian),較(jiao)(jiao)好(hao)的(de)(de)市場(chang)預期(qi)(qi)會在(zai)當前(qian)玉(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)米(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)供應(ying)充足的(de)(de)情況下(xia)(xia)依舊支撐玉(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)米(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)價(jia)格(ge)表(biao)現。東(dong)北(bei)和華(hua)北(bei)地(di)區深(shen)加(jia)(jia)工產(chan)能擴增(zeng)明(ming)(ming)顯,生(sheng)豬新(xin)一輪上(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)周期(qi)(qi)有(you)望加(jia)(jia)速到來(lai),玉(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)米(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)供需(xu)存在(zai)缺口,在(zai)此(ci)種(zhong)預期(qi)(qi)下(xia)(xia),玉(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)米(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)價(jia)格(ge)下(xia)(xia)跌空間亦(yi)有(you)限(xian)。
對于后市,方正中(zhong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)貨(huo)分(fen)析師表示,目前,玉米(mi)市場新糧、陳糧疊(die)加供應,市場處于黎明前的最后一(yi)段黑暗時期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)。不過,在市場整體預期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)較好(hao)的情(qing)況(kuang)下,預計連(lian)盤玉米(mi)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)貨(huo)短(duan)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)將以震蕩偏暖為主,1901合約有望重(zhong)回1900元/噸一(yi)線。
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