中(zhong)證網訊(xun)(記者(zhe) 馬(ma)爽)受外盤原(yuan)油價格(ge)下跌(die)拖累,6月12日,國內(nei)能化期貨品種(zhong)普遍走弱。截(jie)至9:56,原(yuan)油主(zhu)力1909合(he)約、燃料油主(zhu)力1909合(he)約分別報421.6元/桶、2536元/噸,跌(die)幅(fu)均(jun)逾(yu)2%;PTA跌(die)逾(yu)1.5%,滬膠、甲醇、塑料、PP、乙二醇均(jun)走低。
中糧期(qi)(qi)貨分析師(shi)張崢、李云(yun)旭表示,EIA(美(mei)國(guo)(guo)能(neng)源(yuan)信息署)在(zai)(zai)6月的短期(qi)(qi)能(neng)源(yuan)展望(STEO)報告(gao)中下(xia)調(diao)了(le)(le)2019-2020年原(yuan)油(you)(you)需求預(yu)(yu)期(qi)(qi),將(jiang)(jiang)2019年全(quan)球原(yuan)油(you)(you)需求增速(su)(su)預(yu)(yu)期(qi)(qi)下(xia)調(diao)16萬(wan)(wan)(wan)桶(tong)(tong)(tong)/日(ri)至122萬(wan)(wan)(wan)桶(tong)(tong)(tong)/日(ri),將(jiang)(jiang)2020年全(quan)球原(yuan)油(you)(you)需求增速(su)(su)預(yu)(yu)期(qi)(qi)下(xia)調(diao)11萬(wan)(wan)(wan)桶(tong)(tong)(tong)/日(ri)至142萬(wan)(wan)(wan)桶(tong)(tong)(tong)/日(ri)。這在(zai)(zai)情理之中,因為(wei)經濟下(xia)行(xing)必然帶(dai)來燃料消費的下(xia)滑。但EIA同時下(xia)調(diao)了(le)(le)美(mei)國(guo)(guo)原(yuan)油(you)(you)產(chan)(chan)量(liang)預(yu)(yu)估,預(yu)(yu)計2019年美(mei)國(guo)(guo)原(yuan)油(you)(you)產(chan)(chan)量(liang)為(wei)1232萬(wan)(wan)(wan)桶(tong)(tong)(tong)/日(ri),此前預(yu)(yu)期(qi)(qi)為(wei)1245萬(wan)(wan)(wan)桶(tong)(tong)(tong)/日(ri);預(yu)(yu)計2020年美(mei)國(guo)(guo)原(yuan)油(you)(you)產(chan)(chan)量(liang)為(wei)1326萬(wan)(wan)(wan)桶(tong)(tong)(tong)/日(ri),此前預(yu)(yu)期(qi)(qi)為(wei)1338萬(wan)(wan)(wan)桶(tong)(tong)(tong)/日(ri)。2019年美(mei)國(guo)(guo)原(yuan)油(you)(you)產(chan)(chan)量(liang)一次性(xing)下(xia)調(diao)13萬(wan)(wan)(wan)桶(tong)(tong)(tong)/日(ri)超出預(yu)(yu)期(qi)(qi),值得注意。此外,美(mei)國(guo)(guo)石油(you)(you)協會(API)公布的數據顯(xian)示,截至6月7日(ri)當(dang)周,原(yuan)油(you)(you)庫(ku)存意外增加(jia)(jia)485萬(wan)(wan)(wan)桶(tong)(tong)(tong),預(yu)(yu)期(qi)(qi)減少47.2萬(wan)(wan)(wan)桶(tong)(tong)(tong);汽油(you)(you)庫(ku)存增加(jia)(jia)82.9萬(wan)(wan)(wan)桶(tong)(tong)(tong);精煉油(you)(you)庫(ku)存減少346萬(wan)(wan)(wan)桶(tong)(tong)(tong)。API庫(ku)存繼續增長直(zhi)接(jie)打(da)壓油(you)(you)價(jia),預(yu)(yu)計短期(qi)(qi)內油(you)(you)價(jia)將(jiang)(jiang)難以繼續反彈(dan),下(xia)行(xing)空間遠大于上行(xing)空間。