盤(pan)(pan)面情況:上海期貨(huo)交(jiao)易所FU1901合約(yue)開盤(pan)(pan)報(bao)(bao)2951元(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun),收盤(pan)(pan)報(bao)(bao)2869元(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun),較(jiao)上一(yi)交(jiao)易日下(xia)跌152元(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun),跌幅為5.03%。成(cheng)交(jiao)量增加至(zhi)19.2萬手(shou)(shou),持倉量增加17846手(shou)(shou)至(zhi)27104手(shou)(shou)。
消息面:1.新加(jia)坡燃(ran)料油現貨市場成交3筆。貢沃爾公(gong)司從托克公(gong)司購(gou)買(mai)了2萬(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)7月31-8月4日(ri)裝船的(de)380CST燃(ran)料油,每噸(dun)(dun)比(bi)新加(jia)坡報(bao)價高5.00美(mei)元(yuan)(yuan);興(xing)隆公(gong)司從托克公(gong)司購(gou)買(mai)了2萬(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)7月31-8月4日(ri)裝船的(de)380CST燃(ran)料油,每噸(dun)(dun)453.00美(mei)元(yuan)(yuan);興(xing)隆公(gong)司從佳能可公(gong)司購(gou)買(mai)了兩船各2萬(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)8月1-5日(ri)裝船的(de)380CST燃(ran)料油,每噸(dun)(dun)453.00美(mei)元(yuan)(yuan)。2.挪威石(shi)油工(gong)人罷(ba)工(gong)加(jia)劇,又有超(chao)過900名工(gong)人加(jia)入罷(ba)工(gong)大軍,上周罷(ba)工(gong)人數為近700人。3.敘利亞(ya)阿(a)拉伯海灣石(shi)油公(gong)司的(de)原油產量恢復(fu)至15-18萬(wan)(wan)桶/日(ri)。
現(xian)貨價(jia)格:7月16日(ri)新加坡(po)燃料油(船用(yong)380Cst)現(xian)貨報價(jia)443.56美元(yuan)/噸(dun),較上一(yi)日(ri)漲8.8美元(yuan)/噸(dun)(按當(dang)日(ri)人民幣(bi)匯(hui)率折算(suan)為2978元(yuan)/噸(dun))。
觀點總結:國(guo)際(ji)原油(you)(you)期(qi)(qi)(qi)價(jia)(jia)大幅下挫,亞(ya)洲盤布倫特原油(you)(you)9月期(qi)(qi)(qi)價(jia)(jia)處(chu)于(yu)72美元/桶附(fu)(fu)近震蕩,新加坡燃(ran)(ran)料油(you)(you)(船用380Cst)現貨報(bao)價(jia)(jia)上漲至443.56美元/噸(dun)(按當日人民幣(bi)匯率折算為2978元/噸(dun))。挪(nuo)威(wei)石(shi)油(you)(you)工(gong)(gong)人罷工(gong)(gong)愈演愈烈,罷工(gong)(gong)人數增(zeng)加超900人至2250人左右,加上委內瑞拉石(shi)油(you)(you)產區存在石(shi)油(you)(you)終端(duan)危機對油(you)(you)價(jia)(jia)形成強勁支撐(cheng);但(dan)美國(guo)財長稱將考慮(lv)赦(she)免部分國(guo)家進(jin)口(kou)(kou)伊朗石(shi)油(you)(you),俄羅斯(si)能源部長稱如(ru)有必要(yao)將增(zeng)加石(shi)油(you)(you)產量以(yi)消(xiao)除(chu)全球石(shi)油(you)(you)供應不足和(he)敘利亞(ya)石(shi)油(you)(you)產量已逐步恢復(fu)生產等利空(kong)(kong)因(yin)素將限(xian)制(zhi)油(you)(you)價(jia)(jia)反彈空(kong)(kong)間,短(duan)期(qi)(qi)(qi)燃(ran)(ran)油(you)(you)期(qi)(qi)(qi)價(jia)(jia)呈(cheng)現出震蕩偏(pian)(pian)空(kong)(kong)走勢。技術上,FU1901合約跳空(kong)(kong)下挫,期(qi)(qi)(qi)價(jia)(jia)增(zeng)倉大跌逾近跌停,上方3000整數關口(kou)(kou)面(mian)臨壓力,預計燃(ran)(ran)油(you)(you)期(qi)(qi)(qi)價(jia)(jia)呈(cheng)現震蕩偏(pian)(pian)空(kong)(kong)走勢。操作上,在2950附(fu)(fu)近試空(kong)(kong)。