由于橡(xiang)膠(jiao)市場需求疲弱和庫存高企(qi)的(de)利(li)空效(xiao)應(ying)揮之不散(san)，上(shang)周(zhou)，主力(li)1805合(he)約呈現(xian)放(fang)量(liang)增倉(cang)破位下行走勢。空頭主力(li)乘勢發力(li)，價格最低下探(tan)至12790元(yuan)/噸。

　　近一周以來(lai)，滬(hu)膠1805合約總持(chi)(chi)(chi)(chi)(chi)倉(cang)(cang)量穩(wen)步攀升。其中(zhong)，多(duo)空(kong)(kong)前(qian)20席位(wei)(wei)的(de)(de)持(chi)(chi)(chi)(chi)(chi)倉(cang)(cang)量均維持(chi)(chi)(chi)(chi)(chi)增加(jia)景象，但多(duo)頭增持(chi)(chi)(chi)(chi)(chi)力度強于空(kong)(kong)頭。交易所持(chi)(chi)(chi)(chi)(chi)倉(cang)(cang)數據顯(xian)示(shi)，多(duo)頭前(qian)20席位(wei)(wei)的(de)(de)持(chi)(chi)(chi)(chi)(chi)倉(cang)(cang)量從1月26日(ri)(ri)的(de)(de)107137手(shou)增加(jia)至(zhi)2月2日(ri)(ri)的(de)(de)112902手(shou)，累計增加(jia)5765手(shou)；空(kong)(kong)頭前(qian)20席位(wei)(wei)的(de)(de)持(chi)(chi)(chi)(chi)(chi)倉(cang)(cang)量從1月26日(ri)(ri)的(de)(de)152748手(shou)增加(jia)至(zhi)2月2日(ri)(ri)的(de)(de)155239手(shou)，累計增加(jia)2491手(shou)。隨著滬(hu)膠價格的(de)(de)快速下跌，空(kong)(kong)頭增持(chi)(chi)(chi)(chi)(chi)的(de)(de)頭寸浮贏明顯(xian)。在12800元(yuan)/噸附近時，空(kong)(kong)頭獲利盤涌現(xian)，導致凈(jing)空(kong)(kong)頭寸周環比略微下降。數據顯(xian)示(shi)，滬(hu)膠1805合約前(qian)20席位(wei)(wei)的(de)(de)凈(jing)空(kong)(kong)持(chi)(chi)(chi)(chi)(chi)倉(cang)(cang)量自1月26日(ri)(ri)的(de)(de)45611手(shou)小幅下降至(zhi)2月2日(ri)(ri)的(de)(de)42337手(shou)，凈(jing)減(jian)3274手(shou)，降幅為7.18%。

　　單(dan)日持(chi)倉(cang)上，2月2日，滬膠1805合約(yue)前20席位中，多空(kong)(kong)均(jun)小幅減持(chi)。其(qi)中，多頭累(lei)計(ji)(ji)減倉(cang)314手，空(kong)(kong)頭累(lei)計(ji)(ji)減倉(cang)316手。

　　具體來看，多頭前20席(xi)(xi)位(wei)(wei)(wei)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)，增持(chi)(chi)(chi)的(de)席(xi)(xi)位(wei)(wei)(wei)和減持(chi)(chi)(chi)的(de)席(xi)(xi)位(wei)(wei)(wei)各占(zhan)一半。其中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)，銀河期貨(huo)席(xi)(xi)位(wei)(wei)(wei)、永安期貨(huo)席(xi)(xi)位(wei)(wei)(wei)和國泰君安期貨(huo)席(xi)(xi)位(wei)(wei)(wei)減持(chi)(chi)(chi)力度居前，分(fen)(fen)別減少406手(shou)(shou)(shou)、254手(shou)(shou)(shou)和202手(shou)(shou)(shou)。中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國國際期貨(huo)席(xi)(xi)位(wei)(wei)(wei)、申萬(wan)期貨(huo)席(xi)(xi)位(wei)(wei)(wei)和浙商(shang)期貨(huo)席(xi)(xi)位(wei)(wei)(wei)減持(chi)(chi)(chi)力度也較為明顯，分(fen)(fen)別減少116手(shou)(shou)(shou)、127手(shou)(shou)(shou)和102手(shou)(shou)(shou)。在增持(chi)(chi)(chi)方(fang)面，僅有中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)信期貨(huo)席(xi)(xi)位(wei)(wei)(wei)、方(fang)正中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)期期貨(huo)席(xi)(xi)位(wei)(wei)(wei)和華泰期貨(huo)席(xi)(xi)位(wei)(wei)(wei)分(fen)(fen)別增持(chi)(chi)(chi)424手(shou)(shou)(shou)、131手(shou)(shou)(shou)和113手(shou)(shou)(shou)，其他席(xi)(xi)位(wei)(wei)(wei)增持(chi)(chi)(chi)有限。

　　空頭(tou)前20席(xi)位(wei)(wei)(wei)中(zhong)(zhong)，增(zeng)持(chi)的(de)席(xi)位(wei)(wei)(wei)和(he)(he)(he)減持(chi)的(de)席(xi)位(wei)(wei)(wei)也各占一半。其中(zhong)(zhong)，興(xing)證期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)貨(huo)(huo)(huo)席(xi)位(wei)(wei)(wei)、瑞(rui)達期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)貨(huo)(huo)(huo)席(xi)位(wei)(wei)(wei)和(he)(he)(he)中(zhong)(zhong)信(xin)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)貨(huo)(huo)(huo)席(xi)位(wei)(wei)(wei)減持(chi)力度(du)居前，分(fen)別(bie)減少429手(shou)、241手(shou)和(he)(he)(he)277手(shou)。國(guo)貿期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)貨(huo)(huo)(huo)席(xi)位(wei)(wei)(wei)、華泰(tai)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)貨(huo)(huo)(huo)席(xi)位(wei)(wei)(wei)、中(zhong)(zhong)銀國(guo)際期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)貨(huo)(huo)(huo)席(xi)位(wei)(wei)(wei)和(he)(he)(he)建信(xin)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)貨(huo)(huo)(huo)席(xi)位(wei)(wei)(wei)減持(chi)力度(du)也較為明顯，分(fen)別(bie)減少175手(shou)、104手(shou)、115手(shou)和(he)(he)(he)126手(shou)。在增(zeng)持(chi)方面，銀河期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)貨(huo)(huo)(huo)席(xi)位(wei)(wei)(wei)、海通期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)貨(huo)(huo)(huo)席(xi)位(wei)(wei)(wei)和(he)(he)(he)大地(di)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)貨(huo)(huo)(huo)席(xi)位(wei)(wei)(wei)增(zeng)持(chi)力度(du)顯著，分(fen)別(bie)增(zeng)加(jia)795手(shou)、110手(shou)和(he)(he)(he)104手(shou)，其余席(xi)位(wei)(wei)(wei)增(zeng)持(chi)有(you)限。

　　經歷過上(shang)周滬膠1805合(he)約價格的快速下跌(die)，空頭(tou)情緒(xu)得到(dao)部(bu)分宣泄，短(duan)期(qi)內進一步施壓的動力減(jian)弱，部(bu)分獲利頭(tou)寸出局意愿增強。不過，多頭(tou)信心依然低(di)迷，預計未來(lai)滬膠1805合(he)約將(jiang)延續偏(pian)弱姿態(tai)，只(zhi)是跌(die)勢有(you)所放緩。 （作者(zhe)單位(wei)：寶城期(qi)貨）